Although the withdrawal of the United States of America (USA) and its allies from Afghanistan on 31 August 2021, ending the 20-year-long occupation called “Operation Enduring Freedom”, started the second Taliban era, a power vacuum has emerged in Afghanistan.
It is known that this situation provided terrorist organisations with the opportunity to act. On the one hand, the ousted regime’s emptying of prisons and the Taliban’s declaration of general amnesty facilitated the activities of terrorists coming out of prisons in Afghanistan; on the other hand, the weapons left behind by the US and its allies during their withdrawal fell into the hands of terrorist organisations. Moreover, the isolation policies of the international community, which punish the Afghan people under the pretext of punishing the Taliban regime, have deepened the economic problems in the country, the employment problem has reached the dimension of a humanitarian crisis, and this has facilitated the recruitment of terrorist organisations.
Considering that Afghanistan is geopolitically located in the heartland of the world, that is, in the heart of Eurasia, it can be foreseen that crises and instability will not be limited to this country. Perhaps the most decisive factor in the decision to withdraw was the US’ desire to leave its two rivals, Russia and China, to face the instabilities in their immediate neighbourhood. There are strong allegations that this was the real reason for the withdrawal. In the face of this situation, all the states in the region have various concerns in terms of security and migration. The search for cooperation against crises also stems from these concerns.
In this context, it can be stated that Pakistan is one of the countries where terrorist acts have increased following the US withdrawal. Looking at the terrorist threats that the Islamabad administration has to face, it can be said that the issue is closely related to the power vacuum in Afghanistan. Pakistani officials frequently make statements drawing attention to this. As a matter of fact, both the use of weapons withdrawn by the US from Afghanistan in the terrorist attacks in Pakistan and the terrorists’ attempts to evade the operations of the Pakistani Army by crossing into Afghanistan after the terrorist attacks confirm the arguments of the Pakistani government.
Currently, it is possible to talk about a two-dimensional terrorist threat in Pakistan. The first one is the attacks of the terrorist organisation Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP). Secondly, the increasing activities of separatist Baloch organisations are on the agenda. It can be argued that the attacks of these organisations serve two purposes.
The first is to destabilise the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), one of the most critical economic routes of the Belt and Road Initiative, which China is trying to implement in order to increase its influence in global trade. In fact, when we look at the attacks in Pakistan, it is seen that both the terrorist organisation TTP and the separatist Baloch organisations frequently target Chinese investments and Chinese workers.
At this point, it is essential to remind that the starting point of CPEC is the Balochistan Region. Because Gwadar Port, which is the point where CPEC opens to the oceans, is located in this region. It is possible to associate the Baloch propaganda against the Gwadar Port with the aim of destabilising the CPEC and thus undermining China’s initiatives.
Secondly, it can also be argued that both the attacks of the terrorist organisation TTP and the terrorist acts of separatist Baloch organisations target Pakistan’s energy security. As is known, Pakistan is an energy dependent country. In order to overcome this dependence, the Islamabad administration imports energy from Russia and Iran. Undoubtedly, like Beijing, Moscow and Tehran are also seen as “other” actors by the Washington administration. In energy imports from these countries, both Gwadar Port and Balochistan Region come to the fore. Therefore, it is obvious that the attacks target the commercial interests of these countries and Pakistan’s energy security.
As it will be recalled, on 21 May 2023, a terrorist attack was carried out by a group trying to infiltrate into Iran through the Pakistani border. Although the attack was clearly condemned by the Islamabad administration in a very strong language, Tehran made statements inviting Pakistan to increase measures in the interest of border security. It is highly significant that this terrorist attack came after Pakistan’s negotiations to increase its energy imports from Iran. Moreover, the attack also has a CPEC dimension. Because during these talks, Pakistan also discussed the issue of overcoming the deficiencies of Gwadar Port by purchasing electricity from Iran. [i]
As it can be understood, terrorist acts in the region have threatened energy security by aiming to create insecurity in the Islamabad-Tehran line on the one hand, and served to destabilise CPEC on the other. At the same time, this situation has occasionally led Beijing to make various demands on the security of investments, leading to minor conflicts in China-Pakistan relations. Similarly, the process also has a Russian dimension. Because the escalation of these attacks during a period when Russia will import liquefied natural gas by sea to Pakistani ports puts Pakistan’s energy security and Russia’s economic revenues at risk. Therefore, it is understood that the terrorist attacks are also intended to sabotage the relations between Islamabad and Moscow.
In conclusion, after the withdrawal of the US and its allies from Afghanistan, there has been a significant increase in terrorist attacks in Pakistan. It is seen that the main target of these attacks is CPEC and Pakistan’s energy security. Moreover, China is indirectly targeted through CPEC, and Iran and Russia are also indirectly targeted through the energy security dimension. Therefore, it is possible to argue that the terrorist organisation TTP and separatist Baluch groups are proxy actors serving the US goal of destabilising its rivals.
[i] “Terrorist Attacks Put Pakistan’s Bid to Import Energy from Iran in Jeopardy”, My Republica, https://myrepublica.nagariknetwork.com/news/terrorist-attacks-put-pakistan-s-bid-to-import-energy-from-iran-in-jeopardy/?categoryId=81, (Date of Accession: 02.06.2023).
