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The US Has Been “Perplexed”!

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The Turkish Armed Forces (TAF) and Free Syrian Army (FSA) has initiated the second phase in Operation Olive Branch by targeting terrorist present in the centre of Afrin. This has led to “distraction” for many states and mainly the US.

Not only the US but also entities that have asserted that “Neither Turkey cannot launch such an operation, nor the US would allow such incursion” has been perplexed too. Through discourse and actions, they are endeavouring to halt Turkey’s operation and its return to its root geography. Therefore, a deep-hidden plan and attempts of reconciliation are becoming evident.

For instance, the “controversial-non-functional ceasefire” initiated in Syria for a month and the release of “Salih Muslim” once again validate Western support for terrorism. Articulations by many “friendly”-enemy states including PYD-YPG/PKK terrorist organisations that “Turkey is planning on invading Syria and if necessary measures are not taken Syria will be partitioned.” are part of this ardour.

For a better understanding, it is paramount to take a look at proclamations made by Turkey’s “strategic partner/ally” the US by setting apart Russia and Iran’s “friendly demerits/worries” and “acts on sly”.

At this point, the remarks of Joseph Votel, commander of the US Central Forces (CENTCOM), Colonel Dillion, the spokesperson of the US-led Coalition against DAESH and Heather Nauert, the spokesperson of the US Department of State are quite remarkable. They more of a “caveat” rather than mutters.

“Do Not Encumber Me Monition” from the US

Commander Joseph Votel, the Commander of CENTCOM who claims that the Russian Federation and Iran are trying to unsettle the strategic partnership between Turkey argues that Operation Olive Branch is “obstructing” the fight against ISIS.

Votel who is concerned about “radical groups gathering” in Syria indicates that; “sooner or later the US needs to deal with this issue.”

The concurrence of the US on this issue can be found in the statements of another soldier. Colonel Dillon implies that he understands the legitimate security concerns of Turkey. However, he vindicates that the Operation in Afrin “is causing a distraction” and “is ominous for the coalition”.

Heather Nauert, the spokesperson of the US Department of State, connotes that the “ceasefire applies to all of Syria. Turkey should properly read the relevant resolution”. She implies that “a breach” is in place.

Through all three assertions Washington is signifying the following messages to Ankara:

  1. Stop progressing in Afrin;
  2. We are aware of the situation in Idlib, and intervention is possible. Hence, review your decision/activities at the location;
  3. We are uncomfortable with the cooperation established with Iran and Russia;
  4. If you continue your demeanour, we will do whatever is necessary.

“Syria Leaks” Plan

What is meant by “necessary” is well-known. However, there was no concrete information about the steps until the recent leak.

According to “Syria Leaks” disclosed by a group of French journalists, five countries (USA, UK, France, Saudi Arabia and Jordan) have met in Washington on 11th of January at a secret meeting.

At the gathering, the states discuss the possibility of an agreed “New Middle East” plan/strategy over Syria and the possibility of working with additional countries upon the matter. A bid is made to Germany, while Turkey is evaluated at a different category towards the end of the meeting.

In the end, the parties agree upon the new borders of the Middle East and anticipate a Turkish-Kurdish war.

Albeit the accuracy of this “leak” is controversial. However, the actions of states like the Czech Republic regarding Salih Muslim indicate that the West has unfinished business with PYD-YPG/PKK terrorist organisations. Nonetheless, Allah, the all mighty has a reckoning too!

Prof. Dr. Mehmet Seyfettin EROL
Prof. Dr. Mehmet Seyfettin EROL
Born in 1969, Dörtyol-Hatay, Prof. Dr. Mehmet Seyfettin Erol graduated from Boğaziçi University (BU), Department of Political Science and International Relations in 1993. After completing his master's degree at BU in 1995, Erol was accepted to the PhD program at BU in the same year. After completing his PhD at Ankara University in 2005, Erol became an associate professor in the field of “International Relations” in 2009 and a professor in 2014. Erol worked at the Eurasian Center for Strategic Studies (ASAM) between 2000 and 2006 and and served as the General Coordinator of ASAM for a period. In 2009, he served as also Founding Chairman and Board Member of the Institute for Strategic Thinking (SDE). He is also the Founding President of the Center for International Strategy and Security Studies (USGAM) and the President of the International Relations Institute of the New Türkiye Strategic Research Center (YTSAM). Prof. Erol has also served as the Director of Gazi University Strategic Research Center (GAZISAM). In 2007, Prof. Erol received the “Turkish World Service Award” from the Writers and Artists Foundation of the Turkic World (TÜRKSAV), and has received numerous awards for his academic work and his activities in the media. Some of them can be listed as follows: 2013 “Print Media of the Year Award” by the Association of Contemporary Democrats, 2015 “APM 10th Year Service Award”, “2015 Press-Intellectual of the Year Award” by the Writers' Union of Türkiye (YTB), “2016 Volunteer Ambassadors Media Honor Award” by the Anatolian Village Guards and Martyrs' Families, “2016 Türkiye Honor Award” by the Yoruk Turkmen Federations. Prof. Erol has 15 book studies. The names of some of them are as follows: “The United States of Turks from Dream to Reality”, “Türkiye-EU Relations: Foreign Policy and Internal Structure Problems”, “The New Great Game in Eurasia”, “The Search for Strategy in Turkish Foreign Policy”, “The Search for Security in Turkish Foreign Policy”, “The Republic of Türkiye-Russian Federation Relations”, “The Cold Organization of Hot Peace: The New NATO”, “Theoretical Approaches in Foreign Policy Analysis: The Case of Turkish Foreign Policy”, “Crises and Crisis Management: Actors and Case Studies”, “Kazakhstan” and “Current Issues in International Relations”. Since 2002, Prof. Erol, who has carried out radio programs such as “Eurasia Agenda”, “Strategic Perspective”, “Global Perspective”, “Analysis”, “File”, “News Desk”, “The Other Side of the Agenda” on TRT Türkiye's voice and TRT Radio 1 (Ankara Radio), made the programs “Arayış” on TRT INT television between 2004-2007, “Beyond the Border” on Kanal A television between 2007-2010 and “Foreign Policy Agenda” on BBN TÜRK television in 2020-2021. Prof. Erol, whose foreign policy column “Arayış” was published in Milli Gazete between 2012-2018, is consulted for his expertise in numerous national and international media outlets such as television, radio, newspapers, news websites and magazines. Prof. Erol, who also taught at Gazi University Department of International Relations and Ankara University Latin American Studies Center (LAMER) between 2006-2018, has been continuing his academic career as a faculty member at Ankara Hacı Bayram Veli University Department of International Relations since 2018. Since 2006, Prof. Erol has also taught in the Department of Political Science and International Relations at Ufuk University. The main areas of interest and expertise of Prof. Erol and the titles of his courses at the undergraduate, master's and doctoral levels in this area are as follows: “Geopolitics”, “Security”, “Intelligence”, “Crisis Management”, “Current Issues in International Relations”, “Turkish Foreign Policy”, “Russian Foreign Policy”, “US Foreign Policy” and “Central Asia and South Asia”. Prof. Erol, whose articles-evaluations have been published in many journals and newspapers, has been editor of academic journals such as “Eurasia File”, “Strategic Analysis”, “Strategic Thinking”, “Gazi Regional Studies”, “The Journal of SSPS”, “Black Sea Studies”. He is currently in the editorial boards of “Regional Studies,” “International Crisis and Political Research,” “Gazi Academic View”, “Ege University Turkish World Surveys”, “Ankara International Social Sciences”, “Democracy Platform”. Prof. Erol, who has been working as the Founding President of the Ankara Center for Crisis and Political Studies (ANKASAM) since 2016, is married and has three children.