On the occasion of the Second Karabakh War, which lasted for 44 days, Azerbaijan freed its occupied territories and a ceasefire agreement was signed between the parties through the Moscow Declaration signed on November 9, 2020. Although a ceasefire agreement has been signed between the parties, a lasting peace agreement has not been signed yet, although it has been about 2.5 years.
The situation in question, on the other hand, makes the peace process fragile despite the negotiations and mutual goodwill of the parties. It is known that the Karabakh Clan, which is in the opposition in Armenian politics and is known for its pro-occupation attitude, and the nationalist sections in the Armenian Army, from time to time, make some provocations. For this reason, it is seen that there are border conflicts from time to time. As a matter of fact, in the first days of March 2023, it was seen that there was military activity in the border regions of the parties. This led to some concerns that the parties would fight again.
At this point, it should be noted that; despite all the difficulties, the parties do not want a new war. Looking at the issue from Yerevan’s perspective, Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan is aware that the occupation in Karabakh, which has been going on for many years, has caused Yerevan to be isolated from the international community. Pashinyan, who comes to the fore with his pro-Western views, wants lasting peace in the region for this reason and thinks that normalization processes in the region will facilitate Armenia’s establishing healthy relations with the world.
As a matter of fact, Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan, in his statement on his official account on the social media site Twitter, stated that a peace agreement will be signed between Armenia and Azerbaijan, that the tension in the region will not rise again and that the international community should support this process.[1]
The Baku administration, on the other hand, has achieved its gains in the field basically in accordance with international law. The Baku administration, which wants this success to be reflected on the diplomacy table, is not in search of a new war. That’s why the President of Azerbaijan, Ilham Aliyev, made constructive statements even during the escalation of tensions. Speaking at the 10th Global Baku Forum, Mr. Aliyev said, “Now is the time to make peace. We took the initiative in November 2020 to hold peaceful negotiations. There are five main principles and they can form the basis of a peace agreement with Armenia.” he said.[2]
It is clear that the normalization of the region as soon as possible is in the interest of Azerbaijan in many issues, especially in energy and logistics routes. However, the conclusion of the normalization processes in the region is not only for Azerbaijan; it will increase the geopolitical and geoeconomic importance of Armenia at the point of corridors.
On the other hand, it can be argued that the approaches of the West and Russia are also important in the developments regarding the establishment of a lasting peace between the parties. First of all, to talk about Russia, it can be said that the Moscow administration is pleased with the presence of the Russian Peacekeeping Force in Karabakh and does not want a new conflict. Moreover, while the war in Ukraine continues; it could also be argued that the Kremlin would not want to focus on a new conflict in the post-Soviet space. That’s why, on March 23, 2023, the Spokesperson of the Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Maria Zakharova, announced that she would call on the parties for the resumption of negotiations between Baku and Yerevan.[3] Therefore, it would not be a realistic approach to claim that there is an obstacle in front of the peace processes due to the Russian factor.
In fact, there is a similar situation in the Western dimension. In particular, the energy crisis after the Russia-Ukraine War increased the expectations for normalization in the Caucasus. Especially after the blockage of the Northern Corridor, the importance of the Central Corridor became evident and the Central Asia-Caspian Sea-Caucasus-Balkans-Europe route became one of the lowest cost, shortest and safest routes in terms of energy and logistics.
As might be expected, the sustainability of the security situation in the region is essential for the West. That’s why, again on March 23, 2023, United States of America (USA) Foreign Minister Antony Blinken stated that Azerbaijan and Armenia could sign a peace agreement in the near future. In his statement on the subject, the US Secretary of State said, “I think there is an opportunity. I don’t want to exaggerate. But I see there is an opportunity for a peace agreement to actually be completed.” formed his sentences.[4] This can be interpreted as the USA’s support for the achievement of lasting peace.
Undoubtedly, the fact that the statements of Zakharova and Blinken were made on the same day indicates that there is a consensus among the great powers in establishing a lasting peace in Karabakh. When this situation is evaluated together with the constructive attitude of the Baku and Yerevan administrations, it can be thought that a lasting peace agreement can be signed in the near future.
As a result, the fact that a lasting peace agreement has not been signed in the approximately 2.5 year period since the Second Karabakh War has made the ceasefire agreement fragile and although there have been limited conflicts in the region at various times, both Azerbaijan and Armenia are not wars; stands out with its peaceful attitude. Moreover, the messages from Russia and the USA reveal that the international conjuncture is suitable for ending the Karabakh Issue.
[1] “Новой эскалации не будет: Пашинян подчеркнул важность поддержки международного сообщества в вопросе мирного договора”, Armen Press, https://armenpress.am/rus/news/1107064.html, (Date of Accession: 24.03.2023).
[2] “Azerbaycan Cumhurbaşkanı Aliyev: Şimdi Artık Barış Zamanı”, Hürriyet, https://www.hurriyet.com.tr/dunya/azerbaycan-cumhurbaskani-aliyev-simdi-artik-baris-zamani-42231529, (Date of Accession: 24.03.2023).
[3] “В МИД России призвали Армению и Азербайджан возобновить переговоры”, Report.az, https://report.az/ru/vneshnyaya-politika/v-mid-rossii-prizvali-armeniyu-i-azerbajdzhan-vozobnovit-peregovory/, (Date of Accession: 24.03.2023).
[4] Ibid.
