Afghanistan’s Panjshir Region has become a symbol of resistance against the Taliban. Located in the north of Kabul, the region is on the mountain pass that separates the south and north of the country. The Panjshir River and the Panjshir Valley, which gave the region its name, are a kind of natural shelter. Access to the region is provided by a narrow passage passing through the neighboring Parwan province. The Panjshir Resistance, initiated by Ahmad Shah Massoud’s son Ahmed Massoud, against the early victory of the Taliban, also emerged in this region.
As it will be remembered, Ahmed Massoud, in his call for help in his article published in the Washington Post,[1] stated that the Taliban is not only the problem of the Afghan people; he also stated that terrorism can turn Afghanistan into a great springboard for attacking democracies. Massoud demands the establishment of an inclusive government in the country. This shows that the most important reason for the Panjshir Resistance is the “national factor”. In other words, the main expectation of the resistance in Panjshir is the construction of a system in which ethnic groups other than Pashtuns are represented too.
The political wing of the military resistance forces under the command of Massoud is taking shape under the leadership of Amrullah Saleh, who declared himself the legitimate President and called for resistance against the Taliban. Tajiks come to the fore in the ethnic structure of Panjshir. For this reason, there is a possibility that the anti-Taliban resistance in the region will turn into a “Tajik-Pashtun conflict” soon. This can be correlated with the prediction that Pashtun nationalism, which came to the fore with the early victory of the Taliban, will increase.
Pashtun nationalism, which is a reality of Afghanistan, is fed by the idea of “Great Afghanistan” stretching from Bukhara to Peshawar. The instability that left its marks on the ethno-political situation in Afghanistan may confront the Tajik resistance in the aforementioned region with Pashtun nationalism. This may make it inevitable for Tajiks to become politicized and the process to turn into an ethno-political conflict. Therefore, there is a possibility that the country will face the risk of ethnic division if the Taliban take actions that will attempt to transform Afghanistan into a Pashtun nation-state.
As it will be remembered, in the 1980s, after the Soviet Union’s withdrawal from Afghanistan, Ahmad Shah Massoud took control of the Tajik provinces in northeastern Afghanistan. The idea of a separate Tajik state was put forward by Ahmad Shah Mesud, who was known as the “Lion of Panjshir” in this period. When the Panjshir Resistance is approached from this perspective, it can be predicted that a government that the Taliban will form based on Pashtun nationalism on its own will not be accepted. Because developments in this direction will draw the reaction of Afghan Tajiks.
Apparently; the Panjshir Region will be mentioned frequently in the near future with the resistance movement it started against the Taliban. As stated above, another important person who participated in the resistance in question is Amrullah Salih. Thanks to Salih’s diplomatic personality and his close relations with the West, it is thought that he will make the struggle, started by Mesud, more powerful.
Support of weapons and ammunition from other parts of Afghanistan to the Panjshir Region, which did not comply with the Taliban’s call for surrender, may enable the “Northern Alliance” to be re-formed. In this case, it may come into question that the commanders’ who left the country after the Taliban entered Kabul, returning to Afghanistan and join the resistance. Claims that the aid was sent to Panjshir from Tajikistan, despite the Taliban officials saying that Panjshir was under siege, show that it will not be easy for the Taliban to establish dominance in the region in question.
There are also developments that increase the tension in the region from time to time. Thus, an armed conflict took place between the Taliban forces and the Panjshir insurgents on August 23, 2021. Although the Taliban declared that they seized the superiority, Saleh stated that the region was under the control of the resistance forces.[2]
In the current situation, the Panjshir resistance led by Mesud continues. The expansion of the size of the resistance may activate the delicate dynamics in the country. Therefore, the search for a solution gain importance. In this sense, a compromise can be reached through negotiations to be held under the guarantor of international mediators. As an alternative to the Taliban being in power alone, a comprehensive government that can represent all ethnic elements in the country is requested. In this way, it may be possible to hinder Pashtun nationalism and prevent radicalization.
The primary demand of the Panjshir insurgents is to reach a peaceful solution through negotiations. However, Masoud’s deputy, Masoud Dashti, states that if the Taliban try to suppress the resistance with military force, the war process will begin.[3] If the resistance in the Panjshir Valley, which even the Soviet Union failed to enter, turns into an armed conflict, a “civil war” may of course break out. Currently, the sides are negotiating to resolve the issue through compromise. In this context, a ceasefire was declared so that there would be no conflict until the negotiations are concluded. However, there is no permanent agreement and therefore the risk of civil war remains.
It is not right to expect Afghanistan, bordering with Central Asian states (Tajikistan, Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan) to be isolated from the region. Therefore, the states of the region will also be affected by the ethnic tensions that may occur in Afghanistan. Radical elements of Central Asian origin who have declared allegiance to the Taliban are also considered as a potential threat to the spread of radicalism.
It is clearly seen that; the stability of Afghanistan is closely related to the security of Central Asia and Eurasia. For this reason, a new “civil war” in Afghanistan, especially ethnic-based conflict, may turn into a matter of related people in the states of the region. Because the relations between Tajikistan and Afghanistan may cause a Pashtun-Tajik conflict. This can pervade the whole region with the effect of dominoes at the point of the spread of radicalization.
[1] “Opinion: The Mujahideen Resistance to the Taliban Begins Now. But We Need Help”, Washington Post, https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2021/08/18/mujahideen-resistance-taliban-ahmad-massoud/?utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter&utm_campaign=wp_main, (Access date: 25.08.2021).
[2] “Талибы сообщили, что окружили своих противников в Панджшере”, Interfax, https://www.interfax.ru/world/786060 (Access date:26.08.2021).
[3] “Известное имя, вряд ли союзник: сможет ли Масуд бросить вызов Талибану?”, DETV, https://ru.detv.us/2021/08/24/%D0%B8%D0%B7%D0%B2%D0%B5%D1%81%D1%82%D0%BD%D0%BE%, (Access date: 25.08.2021).
