AUKUS Pact; It is a security alliance formed in the Asia-Pacific Region with the cooperation of Australia, the United Kingdom, and the United States of America (USA). This entity is committed to the supply of nuclear submarines to Canberra by Washington and London.[1] As a matter of fact, in today’s conjuncture, where global security equations are being read over the Asia-Pacific, it can be said that this union mainly aims to surround China and restrict the activities of the Beijing administration in the South China Sea. Considering that North Korea is also an important military threat in the region in question, it can be argued that this cooperation creates an area of operation and influence for the West and the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO).
Although Australia is in Oceania, it is an actor with a Western perspective in geopolitical and geostrategic terms. It is therefore normal for AUKUS to raise serious security concerns in Beijing. The increase in the tension between the West and China over Taiwan is a factor that increases the size of the rivalry between AUKUS and China. In short, it can be argued that there is an important struggle for influence in the Asia-Pacific Region between these two actors.
It is known that the pact in question not only increased the Western influence in the region, but also included the aim of encircling China. For this reason, it can be stated that the current tension in the region has increased and this has gradually turned the region into a playground for the rivalry between the West and China.
It can be said that the alliance of the said actors over the “anti-Beijing” is making Beijing more uncomfortable day by day and leading it to a more proactive policy. Because the increase in the pressure on Taiwan and the development of the West, especially Washington’s relations with Taipei, would be a violation of the “red lines” in Beijing’s own words. As a matter of fact, it is known that the People’s Republic of China aims to unite with Taiwan until 2049, the centennial of its establishment.[2]
At this point, it can be stated that the USA is trying to accelerate the process through both its relations with Taiwan and AUKUS, and that Beijing aims to increase the probability of failure by forcing China to take a military action before it is fully prepared.
In addition to all these, the presence of countries with a Western perspective such as Japan and South Korea also increases the pressure on China. Because NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg visited Japan and South Korea on 29 January 2023 and talked about “threats originating from China and North Korea” during these visits.[3]
The development in question is extremely remarkable when read together with Japan’s claims to join AUKUS. As a matter of fact, considering Japan’s rising military expenditures, its policies to expand and expand its defense capacity, its relations with Western states and the military agreements it has implemented, and its hardened rhetoric towards states such as China, Russia and North Korea, Japan is also a part of AUKUS. It has been claimed that the name of the Pact will be expanded as JAUKUS.[4] It can be predicted that the realization of such a situation will increase the pressure on China and Beijing’s discomfort with the said pact.
In this context, the increasing influence of the West in the region is not only China; It can be predicted that it will disturb North Korea as well. This is likely to strengthen the possibility of a hot conflict in the region in the coming period.
As a result, AUKUS members and China are geopolitically regional; however, it is in a global struggle in terms of its effects and causes. It can be argued that both sides will continue to increase the level of competition and a hot conflict may occur in the region over Taiwan and the South China Sea in the future. Despite all this, it is unclear whether the actors would want such a conflict in Asia-Pacific.
[1] “What Is The Aukus Alliance And What Are Its İmplications?”, The Guardian, https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2021/sep/16/what-is-the-aukus-alliance-and-what-are-its-implications, (Erişim Tarihi: 23.03.2023).
[2] “China’s Plans to Annex Taiwan Moving ‘Much Faster’ Under Xi, Says Blinken”, The Guardian, https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/oct/18/chinas-plans-to-annex-taiwan-moving-much-faster-under-xi-says-blinken, (Erişim Tarihi: 23.03.2023).
[3] “As Nato Chief Visits South Korea and Japan, China Will Be High on Agenda”, The South China Morning Post, https://www.scmp.com/news/china/diplomacy/article/3208258/nato-chief-visits-south-korea-and-japan-china-will-be-high-agenda, (Erişim Tarihi: 23.03.2023).
[4] “Japan Joining Aukus: the ‘Logical Choice’, but Would It Be a Full Partner In the Alliance?”, The South China Morning Post, https://www.scmp.com/week-asia/politics/article/3200963/japan-joining-aukus-logical-choice-would-it-be-full-partner-alliance, (Erişim Tarihi: 23.03.2023).
