One of the regions most negatively affected by the Russia-Ukraine War, which began on February 24, 2022, is the Balkan geography. It is seen that Croatia, which is in the Balkans, is having a hard time trying to form a policy regarding the war. The main reason for this is that the decision-making mechanism in Croatia is far from being able to reach a consensus on the war in Ukraine. There are particularly deep differences between Croatian Prime Minister Andrej Plenkovic and President Zoran Milanovic regarding the war.
This difference between Croatian President Milanovic and Prime Minister Plenkovic arose even before the start of the Russia-Ukraine War. Milanovic stated in his statement dated on January 25, 2022, that Kyiv is not a member of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) and described the conflict between Russia and Ukraine as a crisis in which the internal dynamics of the United States (US) are effective.[1]
In this context, it can be said that Milanovic is a politician who stands out with pro-Russian views, while Plenkovic advocates that the country pursue integrated policies with the West. Therefore, it can be argued that the difference between the two leaders has shaped Croatia’s foreign policy regarding the war.
Milanovic’s stance towards the conflict between Moscow and Kyiv did not change after the war began. Milanovic, for example, stated on April 8, 2022, that Western sanctions against Moscow would not stop the Russia-Ukraine War and that the war could only be resolved through diplomacy. He also suggested that Croatia could not do much for Ukraine, while it could do a lot in the Western Balkans.[2]
As can be seen, Milanovic takes a different stance on the European Union (EU) sanctions against Russia, both from the Prime Minister of his own country and from other EU member states. Milanovic opposes Western sanctions. In this regard, the Croatian President is the second EU member state leader after Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban to oppose sanctions against Russia.
On the other hand, Plenkovic reacts sharply to Milanovic’s attitude towards the war in Ukraine. In his statement dated on April 21, 2022, Plenkovic claimed that Milanovic has pro-Russian views. Moreover, he also suggested that the President of Croatia has caused enormous damage to the country’s foreign relations. Finally, Plenkovic announced that no cabinet minister will travel with the President of Croatia or attend joint meetings and conferences as long as he is the Prime Minister.[3]
As can be understood, it is seen that the stance of the decision-making mechanism in Croatia towards the Russia-Ukraine War has been shaped by divisions since the beginning of the war. This causes Croatian foreign policy to experience an ambivalent situation.
Milanovic went further in his statement on August 8, 2022, claiming that Western sanctions against Russia are not working. Moreover, he stated that the sanctions did not harm Moscow, but Zagreb.[4] In turn, Plenkovic expressed that Brussels has the political will to expand sanctions against Moscow.[5] In other words, there are also significant disagreements between the Croatian Prime Minister and the President on the functionality of sanctions. This makes it difficult for the Zagreb administration to follow a monolithic policy regarding the war.
In addition to all this, if it is necessary to place particular focus, it can be argued that the war conjuncture has increased the importance of Croatia in European geopolitics. Croatia is one of the two countries in the Balkan geography that has a liquefied natural gas (LNG) terminal together with Greece. Therefore, this situation has led to positive developments for Zagreb, especially in terms of ensuring Europe’s energy security.
On the other hand, the latest conflict experienced by the decision-making mechanism in Croatia regarding the war in Ukraine is related to the training of Ukrainian soldiers in Croatia. In this regard, Milanovic rejected the letter of Defense Minister Mario Banozic, who asked him on November 22, 2022, to approve the training of Ukrainian Forces in Croatia. According to Milanovic, the Minister of Defense does not have the authority to request such approval. According to the Constitution of Croatia, only the President, the Croatian Government and the Croatian Parliament have the authority to make such a decision.[6]
To summarize, there are great disagreements in Croatia regarding Ukraine. According to Milanovic, Croatia should not get involved in the war more than necessary. Therefore, the President of Croatia opposes any military assistance to Ukraine. Milanovic pursues a policy that avoids directly confronting Russia. This prevents Croatia from acting in harmony at the point of the Russia-Ukraine War. This can be interpreted as an indication that the tension between the Croatian Government and the President will increase further in the future.
Consequently, Plenkovic supports sanctions against Russia, while Milanovic is in the opposite position. Therefore, it is foreseeable that the disagreement over Ukraine and Russia in Croatia may continue. Milanovic wants Zagreb to pursue a neutral policy, while Plenkovic does not hesitate to target Moscow at every opportunity. Therefore, it seems that the decision-making mechanism in Croatia is in a “dilemma” regarding the Russia-Ukraine War.
[1] “Milanovic, Ukraine Does Not Belong in NATO”, N1, https://n1info.hr/english/news/milanovic-ukraine-does-not-belong-in-nato/, (Date of Accession: 04.12.2022).
[2] “Croatian President Says Western Sanctions Will Not End Ukraine War”, Euractiv, https://www.euractiv.com/section/politics/short_news/croatian-president-says-western-sanctions-will-not-end-ukraine-war/, (Date of Accession: 04.12.2022).
[3] “Croatia’s PM Plenković Cuts Ties with President Milanović for His Pro-Russian Stance”, Republic World, https://www.republicworld.com/amp/world-news/russia-ukraine-crisis/croatias-pm-plenkovic-cuts-ties-with-president-milanovic-for-his-pro-russian-stance-articleshow.html, (Date of Accession: 04.12.2022).
[4] “Western Sanctions Won’t Harm Russia, But Harmed Croatia, Says President”, Total Croatia News, https://www.total-croatia-news.com/politics/64874-western-sanctions-won-t-harm-russia-but-harmed-croatia-says-president, (Date of Accession: 04.12.2022).
[5] “EU Has Political Will to Extend Russia Sanctions, Croatia Says”, Bloomberg, https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-09-23/eu-has-political-will-to-extend-russia-sanctions-croatia-says?leadSource=uverify%20wall, (Date of Accession: 04.12.2022).
[6] “Croatian President Rejects Training of Ukrainian Soldiers in Croatia”, Xiinhuanet, https://english.news.cn/20221123/c92dd3b837c14c0e9355a862c59c6f1b/c.html, (Date of Accession: 04.12.2022).
