There are serious uncertainties regarding the future of Afghanistan, which is confronting the withdrawal process of the United States (USA). The expansion of the Taliban and the Kabul Administration’s invitation to local groups to act jointly are the signs that the conflicts in Afghanistan will intensify in the future.
The existing situation raises concerns over the radicalization and the rise of terrorism which will not be limited to the Afghan territories. In this regard, Central Asian states are raising their security measures. It is remarkable that regional states received de-facto assistance from Russia in the context of measures because Moscow approaches actors who are worried about Afghanistan-centered threats as a guarantor of their security. Thus, examination of Russia’s Afghanistan policy is essential. As is known, throughout history Russia has been closely interested in Afghanistan, which was the main field of the “Great Game” between Tsardom of Russia and the British Empire. The country also faced the Soviet Union occupation between 1979 and 1989. Recent developments in Afghanistan shows that the “New Great Game” is also be staged in this geography. The Moscow administration is also trying to be one of the main actors shaping the game in question.
At this point, the main conditions that guide Russia’s Afghanistan policy should be mentioned. In fact, the Moscow administration is pleased with the withdrawal of the USA from Afghanistan because of the existence of Americans in this region perceived as a threat to them by Russian decision-makers. Russia believes that the USA is influential for Central Asian states through Afghanistan and has reached the capacity to carry out operations in its near-abroad. Thus, Kremlin does not want to share its sphere of influence which is seen as the backyard of post-Soviets. For this reason, Russia is satisfied with the withdrawal of the USA from Afghanistan. Besides, it is known that Russia has given various support to the Taliban which is fighting against the American instruments by aiming to force the US to withdraw.
Paradoxically, Moscow which took advantage of the presence of American troops in the region was mostly unaffected by radicalization and terrorism. The existence of the US in Central Asia has directed the target of radical groups to American soldiers and the secure atmosphere created by Washington within the scope of fighting against terrorism has formed a comfortable position for Russia. Therefore, Russia had to deal with the impacts of radicalization neither in Central Asia nor in its territory.
Considering the recent developments, instability and radicalization are increasing with the expansion of the Taliban in Afghanistan and this creates anxiety for both Russia and the Central Asian states. The most frightening scenario for Moscow is the reflection of a radicalization and terror wave that will spread to the region through Afghanistan on the Muslims in Russia. In particular, Moscow is anxious about the possibility that the chaos in Afghanistan will create lebensraum for the terrorist organization, the State of Iraq and al-Sham (DEASH/ISIS). For this reason, Russia tends to a more proactive policy in parallel with the uncertainties in Afghanistan and look for ways to increase its presence in the field. In other words, the Kremlin is aware of the necessity to fill the power vacuum that will occur in Afghanistan after the US withdrawal.
Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan are the main countries that have increased their defense measures due to developments in Afghanistan. It should be marked that; Russia has military bases in both countries. In this way, Russia, which took the position of embattled in these bases, try to increase the number of soldiers in Tajikistan. This development indicates that regional states require the assistance of Moscow in providing security and that they have received such support.
This whole picture creates the impression that Russia is trying to make effective exercise of the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) in its Afghanistan policy because it is known that both Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan are members of the CSTO. Therefore, the basis of Russia’s Afghanistan policy is shaped by the stability and security of its near-abroad. This is because Russian decision-makers believe that the security of Russia is based on the security of the post-Soviet area.
As it can be understood, the primary objective of Russia in the regional policy is shaped by a security approach but it is not limited to this. Moscow desires to increase its influence outside and to become the only hegemon power in its backyard with the claim of being the guarantor of regional security. Thus, Russia does not want to share its influence in Central Asia with other actors. For this reason, Russia is closely interested in developments in the Afghanistan situation.
On the other hand, it can be said that Moscow’s expectations include a broader geopolitical perspective. In fact, Russia is trying to establish a safe axis in its South along the region extending to the Persian Gulf. Therefore, Moscow thinks that beyond the post-Soviet area, it should have a significant influence in Afghanistan and Iran.
In the geography in question, Russia, which has close relations with Iran, is also trying to create a similar effect on Afghanistan. In this regard, Moscow seeks to way for existence in Afghanistan and maximum gain in this country through CSTO. Because it is observed that the cooperation among the CSTO member states has increased and the battle-readiness of Russia within the military bases in member states become concrete after the Afghanistan-centered developments. To give an example, on August 11, 2021, Russian Defense Minister Sergey Shoygu stated that “It is very significant for Russia that its allies in the CSTO are ready for possible provocations”. This statement clearly demonstrated that Russian decision-makers desire to increase their influence in Afghanistan by turning CSTO members concerns into opportunities. At this point, the question comes to mind, “Is Moscow’s Afghanistan plan is a CSTO Peacekeeping Force?”
As expected, Russia’s image in Afghanistan is very negative due to traces left by the Soviet occupation. For this reason, it seems to be a much more reasonable option for Russian decision-makers to use the CSTO to fill the power vacuum in Afghanistan by using the excuse of terrorism threat against a member state of the organization. In addition, it is obvious that Russia is trying to be a mediator in the Afghanistan policy and attempting to be a peace-building actor.
This situation becomes more visible with the meeting of the Taliban officials and the Kabul administration’s representatives in Moscow in March 2021. Similarly, on 11 August 2021, Afghan Peace Process was discussed by Mullah Baradar, one of the leaders of the Taliban and Zamir Kabulov, Russia’s Special Representative for Afghanistan, it can be said that Russia did not adopt a passive position regarding Afghanistan. Therefore, firstly, Russia will choose the possibility of mediation; however, if it is not successful, Moscow will hold the option of “CSTO Peace Force” on the table.
On the other hand, China is one of the main actors that closely following the developments in Afghanistan. There are discussions about the Beijing is trying to mediate and keeps the “SCO Peacekeeping Force” scenario ready because of the security of the Belt and Road Project and concerns over the radicalization. However, However, the clarification of China’s influence in Afghanistan will mean that Russia agrees to share its power and influence with China in Central Asia, which is the most important regional front of the global power struggle.
Moscow, on the other hand, demands to centralize its position near-abroad and maintain its absolute advantage and this creates difficulty for Russia to act together with China in its Afghanistan policy. At the same time, the given situation also indicates that there would be a sharp divergence between Moscow and Beijing. This is because Kremlin’s CSTO-based strategies will create an issue of concern for China and also cause a trust problem between the two countries.
As a result, Russia, which defines Central Asia as its own security guarantor, is attempting to prevent the expansion of radicalization and terrorism to its territory. Furthermore, Moscow is closely interested in developments in Afghanistan in order to pursue its influence within the Central Asia-South Asia-Middle East line. To achieve this goal, Russia will centralize its position by becoming a mediator through peace negotiations and also is preparing for CSTO-lead operations. We can say that the Afghanistan policy of Russia will be discussed more frequently in the forthcoming days. This also clearly shows that the future relationship between Moscow-Beijing will become more alienated.
