In 2023, the visibility of Wagner’s forces began to decline after Wagner’s former boss Yevgeni Prigojin first rebelled against the Russian government and died in a plane crash about two months later. In December 2023, a private military company called Africa Corps was created by the Russian Ministry of Defence and under state control.[1] This army is expected to replace Wagner’s army and consists of mercenary or volunteer soldiers. Although it is a formation similar to Wagner in this respect, the fact that it is under the control of the state and established by the ministry distinguishes it from Wagner.
In this context, a unit of 100 soldiers was sent to Burkina Faso in late January 2024.[2] It is stated that 200 more people will be added to this number. On 22 November 2023, it is stated on the Telegram page that a recruitment announcement was made for this army.[3] This new military company will essentially serve as Russia’s new military wing on the continent. It will serve to advance relations in military and political terms.
In addition, Russia opened its embassy in Burkina Faso after a long period of thirty years. This is an important sign that bilateral relations will develop further. Opening an embassy in a country where there was no embassy for more than 30 years and sending soldiers of a newly established private military company here are critical moves made by Russia to increase its presence in Africa.
Sending troops to Burkina Faso and opening an embassy also shows that Russia’s policy of increasing its influence in the Sahel region will be in economic, political and military terms. Because political and economic relations have been established with the embassy and military relations have been established with the troops.
Moreover, the recent increase in the possibility of establishing a military base in the Central African Republic is an indication that Russia wants to be effective in the Sahel and Central Africa region. These steps that Russia has taken and is about to take in order to increase its influence in the continent come after France’s gradual withdrawal from the region. Therefore, it can be said that Russia wants to fill the security vacuum in the Sahel. However, the activities/actions of a private military company like Wagner, which consists of volunteer and mercenary soldiers, without taking human rights into consideration, may also pose a significant problem for the people in the region.
In this context, Russia is planning to move from an irregular military company like Wagner to a centralised and more organised company under its control. Knowing Wagner’s negative record in Africa, the Moscow Government wants to establish and activate Africa Corps in order to increase its influence in the continent.
The Burkina Faso-Mali-Niger trio has recently been acting together. These three countries have established the Alliance of Sahel States. However, Mali’s cancellation of its agreement with Algeria, the development of relations between the three countries with Morocco instead of Algeria, the removal of the United Nations mission from the region, and the removal of France from the region in terms of military, political, education and media clearly show that the Sahel has entered a new era. Russia, in order to avoid repeating the Wagner mistake, also aims to continue with a union that it can control. This situation suggests that Russia wants to act in a more formal and organised manner. However, to what extent and in what way a mercenary and volunteer force can be kept under control is questionable and unpredictable, as can be seen from the Wagner example.
On the other hand, it can be argued that the good level of Russia-Algeria relations will help Algeria to correct the decline in its relations with the Burkina Faso-Mali-Niger trio. However, although Algeria had good relations with this trio until the last period, Algeria’s relations with this trio have been strained with the prominence of Morocco in the last period. It is unclear whether this situation can be corrected positively by using its relations with Russia. Because Russia wants to enter a new era with the Sahel region, Algeria is of great importance at this point. It is also known that Russia, which has good relations with Algeria and has access to the ports in this country, continues its attempts to establish a base in the Central African Republic.
Since it has easy access to the ports in Algeria and it is likely to use Algeria as a route to reach the Sahel from this point, Russia will either take steps to improve the relations between Algeria and these three countries, or it will consider this option by improving its relations with Morocco.
In the Sahel region; there are many problems ranging from terrorism to separatism, from climate change to food insecurity and health problems. Neither the UN, the EU, France nor other countries trying to be active in the region have been able to solve these problems. Although it is not yet known what steps Russia will take to solve these problems, it is not clear whether it will be able to solve them. Because it seems difficult to solve these chronic problems that have been going on for decades at once. However, Russia’s finding solutions to some of these problems or taking steps in this direction in order to increase its influence in the Sahel region, especially in Burkina Faso-Mali-Niger, will positively reflect on its relations with the countries in the region in the short term. Therefore, it can be expected that violent activities and attacks in the region will decrease/reduce and stabilisation will increase to some extent in the near term. However, it would be too early to predict what will happen in the medium and long term.
Africa Corps, which has some systemic and managerial differences compared to Wagner forces, will be Russia’s military and political support in Africa in the new period. Since Wagner was an uncontrollable force, this newly established force will define a more formalised and controlled process. Russia’s new policies in the Sahel and Africa more broadly will include Africa Corps.
In conclusion, the new era in the Sahel points to a change in which important powers such as Russia and China, which do not have a colonial history in the region, will be active. At this point, it can be considered that the US and the EU may take new steps in response to this, activate similar powers and make visits to the region in order to improve diplomatic and political relations. The recent steps taken by the US to establish a relationship with the Central African Republic in the context of a private military company can be explained in this context.
[1] Morgane Le Cam, “Des organes de propagande proches du Kremlin annoncent l’arrivée de «spécialistes militaires» russes au Burkina Faso”, Le Monde, 25 January 2024, https://www.lemonde.fr/afrique/article/2024/01/25/des-organes-de-propagande-proches-du-kremlin-annoncent-l-arrivee-de-specialistes-militaires-russes-au-burkina-faso_6212904_3212.html (Date of Access: 24.02.2024).
[2] Same place.
[3] Kossivi Tiassou, “Des soldats russes déployés au Burkina Faso”, Deutch Welle, 26 Ocak 2024, https://www.dw.com/fr/burkina-faso-russie-africa-corps-instructeurs/a-68098689, (Date of Access: 24.02.2024).
