On Sunday, October 23, 2022, the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) announced the Politburo Standing Committee, with Xi Jinping re-elected as General Secretary. Now, it is wondered what kind of strategy China will follow especially in the crises in its near abroad and possible effects on global politics. Maybe, the most debated issue is whether Xi Jinping will inevitably increase his power or not in his new term.
From this point of view, Ankara Center for Crisis and Policy Studies (ANKASAM) presents the views of Filip Šebok, Project Manager and Research Fellow at the Association for International Affairs (AMO), to evaluate what kind of strategy Xi Jinping will follow in his new term and possible crisis that we encounter in the region.
- What kind of change do you expect in China’s foreign policy in Xi Jinping’s third term?
I think we can expect a lot of consistency, there was no new significant announcement at the Congress. Under Xi Jinping, China has moved towards a more muscular foreign policy, ready to play a more significant role on the global stage, and the general trends are going to continue in this direction. What seems different is that the assessment of the external environment is changing, there is no longer the belief that this is solely a period of strategic opportunity for China. There is a recognition of the intensifying global competition that will create new pressure on the Chinese leadership, for example in the technology sphere, where China will ramp up its efforts to achieve self-sufficiency.
- The US Secretary of State Antony Blinken has said that China’s government is pursuing its plans to annex Taiwan on a “much faster timeline” under Xi Jinping. Do you agree with this view?
We did not see any policy changes at the Congress on Taiwan policy, although there was more stress on opposing “forces of Taiwanese independence” and “external forces” aiding them. China has never stated a specific timeline for “reuniting” with Taiwan. Therefore, I would be hesitant to put a date on that. But it is clear that Chinese military capabilities are growing, and the successful war in the Taiwan Strait is a key scenario for the Chinese military, even if there are no immediate plans. I also believe that the risk is growing also because of the potential of unwanted escalation, as the military tensions with the United States (US) increase.
- From that day on, what kind of China awaits us? “More peaceful China”? or a “more aggressive China”?
In general, we will see Chinese assertiveness in Taiwan and contested territorial claims, indeed. I still believe that it is not in China’s interest to start a global war and will not risk it. The upcoming economic slowdown in China and its management by the leadership will be key. One could well argue that in order not to threaten the stability of the economy, the Chinese leadership will be discouraged from risking a larger conflict. On the other hand, it could also be argued that with growing domestic discontent, Beijing might turn to nationalism as an escape strategy.
Filip Šebok
Filip Šebok is the Project Manager and Research Fellow of AMO dealing with China. He is also the Project Manager of MapInfluenCE and China Observers in Central and Eastern Europe (CHOICE). Filip Šebok graduated in International Relations and Chinese Cultural Studies at Masaryk University in Brno, and International Relations (program taught in Chinese) at Renmin University in Beijing. He previously worked for Slovak research institutions Stratpol and CEIAS. Filip also gained experience as an intern at the Slovak Ministry of Foreign Affairs and the Slovak Embassy in Beijing. His research interests include Chinese domestic and foreign policy, relations between China and Central and Eastern European countries, and China’s foreign policy rhetoric.
