The Ankara Center for Crisis and Policy Studies (ANKASAM) presents its interview with Assoc. Prof. Igor Logvinenko, Director of the Undergraduate Research Center at Occidental College, to evaluate the transformation of global energy markets, the impact of the transition to renewable energy on the economy and geopolitics, and the contributions of artificial intelligence to energy efficiency.
The interview provides an in-depth analysis of how renewable energy is disrupting the dominance of fossil fuels, how major economies are adapting to this transition, and how AI-powered systems are enhancing efficiency in energy production.
1. In your opinion, what is the main motivation for transitioning to renewable energy? Is it primarily economic or environmental? Which countries are leading in this transition?
Primary Motivations for Renewable Energy Transition
The shift to renewable energy is driven by both environmental urgency and economic pragmatism, though the former serves as the foundational catalyst. Climate change’s tangible impacts—extreme weather events causing $4.3 trillion in losses since 1970—have made decarbonization a global imperative. Environmental degradation, coupled with the Paris Agreement’s targets, compels nations to prioritize sustainability. However, economic incentives are increasingly pivotal: renewables now rival fossil fuels in cost-competitiveness due to plummeting solar and wind prices. This dual impetus creates a reinforcing cycle: environmental mandates spur policy support, which drives technological innovation and market growth.
Leading Nations in the Transition
Northern European countries dominate the Energy Transition Index (ETI) 2024, with Sweden (78.4), Denmark (75.2), and Finland (74.5) topping the rankings due to robust renewable deployment and energy efficiency. These nations excel in systemic reforms, such as carbon pricing and grid modernization. Meanwhile, China plays an incongruent but critical role: it accounts for 80% of global solar panel production and half of worldwide low-carbon investments ($546B in 2022), yet remains the largest CO₂ emitter. This duality underscores its unique position as both a renewable manufacturing powerhouse and a climate laggard. Emerging leaders like Spain and Greece also merit attention; Spain generates >50% of its electricity from renewables, demonstrating scalable solutions for sun-rich regions. By the way, I looked this up (because I had seen Turkey outperforming on many metrics in some data): solar and wind installations since 2022 have displaced $15 billion in natural gas imports, with solar alone saving $5.4 billion by generating 52 TWh of electricity. As of 2024, there were 14 GW of pre-licensed solar projects include battery storage, far exceeding the 2030 target of 2.1 GW.
2. How do you think the development of renewable energy sources is changing the global energy market?
Renewable Energy’s Impact on Global Markets
Renewables are reshaping energy geopolitics and market dynamics, destabilizing fossil fuel hegemony. The global renewable market, projected to grow from $1.02T (2024) to $1.57T by 2032, reflects shifting investment patterns. Traditional oil giants like Saudi Aramco and ExxonMobil now allocate capital to wind and hydrogen projects, while tech firms like Google invest in AI-driven grid analytics6. This diversification reduces reliance on volatile hydrocarbon markets, as seen in Europe’s post-Ukraine pivot to solar and wind.
Supply Chain and Technological Shifts
China’s manufacturing dominance—producing 80% of solar panels and 60% of EV batteries-has centralized supply chains, lowering costs but creating vulnerabilities. Countries like the U.S. and India now prioritize domestic production via subsidies (e.g., the U.S. Inflation Reduction Act), fostering regional competition. Concurrently, renewables enable energy democratization: microgrids in Africa and rooftop solar in Pakistan empower communities bypassed by centralized fossil infrastructure5. This decentralization challenges traditional utility models, forcing market players to adopt agile, distributed systems.
3. Do you think AI-powered systems can provide an advantage in energy efficiency? If so, how?
AI’s Role in Enhancing Energy Efficiency
AI has become a game-changer in energy systems, offering unparalleled optimization capabilities for renewable energy production:
- Machine learning algorithms can increase solar panel efficiency by 20% and maximize energy production through real-time monitoring.
- Google’s DeepMind AI model can boost wind farm revenues by 20% through production forecasting.
- Predictive maintenance algorithms have reduced downtime in Danish wind turbines by 30%, ensuring operational continuity.
- Smart grid management helps maintain efficient grid operations by balancing the intermittent supply of renewable energy with demand fluctuations.
The Contradictions of Artificial Intelligence
However, AI’s own energy consumption presents a major paradox. Training large models like GPT-4 consumes megawatt-hours of electricity, and if this energy does not come from renewable sources, AI’s efficiency gains may be overshadowed by its environmental impact.
Moreover, the regulatory gaps surrounding AI must be addressed. Most governments worldwide lack comprehensive legal frameworks for ethical AI use and data transparency. For instance, biased algorithms could prioritize wealthier regions in grid allocation, exacerbating energy inequality.
Thus, while AI offers unmatched optimization benefits, aligning it with climate goals requires robust governance mechanisms to ensure sustainable and equitable energy transitions.
