Korchunov, Special Envoy of the Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs, in a statement in April, stated that NATO countries are concerned about the involvement of countries outside the Arctic in the Alliance’s military activities in northern latitudes and that there are risks of undesirable conflict with Allied forces. On the other hand, on May 22, 2022, the Arctic Council of the Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs warned that “the Arctic region has turned into an area of international conflict, and this is a very worrying trend”.
In this context, Ankara Center for Crisis and Policy Studies (ANKASAM) presents to your attention the opinions of Helsinki University Aleksanteri Institute Director Markku Kivinen on the developments and possible risks in the Arctic region, which is seen as a “new struggle area for the Russia-NATO conflict”.
- How important is the Arctic as a tool for Russia’s greatness?
Arctic is more significant for Russia than ever before. First of all, there are the strategically key nuclear submarine bases. The nuclear missiles launched from those submarines enable the strikes back, even after a major nuclear strike against Russia. The second significant factor are the new shipment routes to Asia. This is a real development already and is growing rapidly every year. Since the Baltic Sea is now more controlled by NATO Russian orientation to Asia, especially to China and India, will enforce this logistical connection in the big global scale. The third significant aspect is the energy resources in the Arctic sea. They comprise 17 per cent of the known Russian energy resources. However, the production costs are very high in comparison with the Middle East or even Siberia. Thus the relevance of this aspect is depending on the changing market development concerning the hydrocarbons. This is not in Russian control and it may also be the case that the resources will never be utilized in full scale.
There are also big global issues concerning the climate change and the position of aboriginal people in the Arctic region. So far, they have been discussed jointly with the Western Arctic states and Russia in the Arctic council. Now this joint approach is jeopardized. The Arctic Council has stopped working because of the war in Ukraine.
- What does Beijing say about China’s role in the Arctic?
Beijing has been very active in promoting the new logistical route to Europe. This is one of their new belts and roads. Russia has so far been trying to prevent full Chinese participation, but now their interests are converging.
- What important factors are shaping NATO’s role in the Arctic?
NATO is, of course, mainly concerned about the military aspects. There is a risk that both NATO and Russia see the Arctic as a zero-sum game. This might jeopardise the cooperation within the context of the Arctic council even in the long run. If Finland and Sweden became NATO countries all the members of the Arctic council are in this alliance, except on Russia.
- After the events in Ukraine, will there be peace in the Arctic?
The risk in contemporary constellation is that the Arctic will be divided to two distinct spheres of influence: NATO countries in one camp and Russia and China in another.
