As the US Presidential elections are approaching, the whole world is wondering how the elections will shape the US foreign policy and whether there will be changes. Ankara Center for Crisis and Political Studies (ANKASAM) presents the views of the Cappadocia University International Relations Faculty Member Prof. Tuğrul Keskin on this subject.
1- What are your general views on the elections in the USA?
There is a question mark in the world about what America’s foreign policy will be if Harris wins, especially if Trump wins. This includes countries in the Middle East, China and Europe. Europe is indeed uncomfortable with Trump’s victory due to the Ukraine War. Because the liberal world order that emerged after World War II is within certain criteria, we are now on the brink of a different world following the technological revolution that emerged in the 1990s. Many political actors in the world belong to the previous world, including Harris and Trump. In order to understand America’s foreign policy, first of all, I think it is necessary to perceive the American society, the changes and transformations in American society, the change in the economy, culture and politics in American society.
In fact, America gradually started to open up to the world from the beginning of the 1900s, when the Ford Automobile Factory established the band system, that is, with the transition to fabrication and mass production. It is because business dynamics started to change. In other words, today’s change actually lies in that day, and I think many people cannot understand this. Especially the reflection of the change in the 1980s and 90s to today, they missed it. Turkey is one of the countries that missed the change in American foreign policy.
This change is a generational change. That is to say, the emergence of the Ford Automobile Factory in 1912, its transition to fabrication, America’s depression of 1929, the new deal created by Franklin Delano Roosevelt, which they later called the Great Deal, which means the restructuring of America’s economy after the 1929 depression, the emergence of the automobile industry with it, the middle class in America experiencing its golden years after World War II, with the 1950s, 60s, 70s and the Cold War policies, America emerged as a hegemonic power on the world stage after World War II.
2- How would you evaluate the change in American foreign policy from a historical perspective?
The world is not the same as it was during the Cold War. With the beginning of the Cold War, many countries gained their independence. Countries in Africa, the Middle East, and Asia, the emergence of India, Israel, China, India and Pakistan, the independence of countries in North Africa. America had formed its foreign policy according to the dynamics of the Cold War. What were the Cold War dynamics? Various organizations were created to counter the propaganda of the Soviet Union. For instance, the Rand Corporation. This was established by the US Department of Defence in 1946.
In order to understand today’s American foreign policy, it is necessary to understand American foreign policy in the 1940s. The Rand Corporation, established in 1946, was one of the institutions established to study and understand the Soviet Union to a certain extent, and to understand the decision mechanisms that the American Ministry of Defence and the American State Department would formulate and implement against the Soviets, and to formulate a thesis against them. There are plenty of institutions with similar objectives.
When America completed its industrialization and created its middle class in the 1950s, it created a perfect environment. Besides, it had energy needs and market needs. It also had a foreign policy against the Soviets. Its market and energy needs aligned with its foreign policy against the Soviets.
3- Can you explain the protectionist policies in America?
America is one of the last countries in the world to face globalization. It managed to protect itself. Why? There were both economic protectionist measures and political and cultural protectionist measures. For example, while centimeters are used in Europe, inches are used here. There are differences in many units. This involves protectionism. America was a protectionist and conservative country. But there was also modernity. In other words, the modernity we perceive as modernity; is the formation of large industrial cities with institutions and cities. New York, Pittsburgh, Detroit, those big car cities, factories, steel industry. What happened in the 1990s? With the collapse of the Soviet Union, there was an IT industrial and technological revolution in America. This technological revolution changed the entire America and the world.
In America today, more than 62 percent of people meet on online platforms. So it’s a social change. It’s a familial and cultural change. But it also affects politics. It’s affecting the economy and it’s completely changing and starting to shape it. WeChat is used throughout Asia: China, Japan, Korea, Indonesia, Malaysia, Bali. You pay money with it. We have switched to such a system. The American financial system and credit cards were introduced in the 1950s. So what does everyone in Turkey understand when they think of American culture? American Express, Citibank, McDonald’s, things like that. These are all companies that emerged in the 1950s. They are not really connected with American culture.
So the changes in the economy have also changed American culture and politics. This is one of the reasons why Trump is so powerful. Because Trump is now like the spokesperson of those people of America who are called the middle class, the white people, and the people who generally live in rural areas. So, it is a new source of hope for those living in rural areas who have lost their jobs and have been negatively affected by globalization. We see where the movement that supports Trump, which they call the “MAGA Movement”, the “Great MAGA Movement”, is strong: Mainly in rural areas. These people have been affected by globalization, by technology companies and by American companies investing in other countries for cheap labor. People were living happily in the countryside, they had houses, they had businesses, they had family shops. These people have changed, there is no one left in small towns. The children of those who sent their children to the big cities to study started not to return. These were the 1970s, 80s, 90s and up to the present day. The foreign policy that had been established during the Cold War also began to change within certain criteria.
4- Can you explain the factors underlying Trump’s rise to power?
There’s a movement coming from below in the USA. A social movement. And people are saying “Why am I fighting, why am I paying 100 billion dollars to Ukraine?”. So 12.2 percent of people in America don’t have health insurance. This is a big number, there is unemployment, the middle class has collapsed, people cannot pay their rent. There is such an economic crisis in America, even though it is not being said. As a result, Trump has become stronger. I mean, if you look at the people who support Trump, including J.D. Vance, whom he chose as his Vice President, they are all people from rural areas. J.D. Vance has his own words: “Why are we paying money to Ukraine?” he says, “Why did we go there?”. So Americans have started asking these questions. Those who ask these questions are normal Americans.
5- What kind of changes do you expect in foreign policy if Harris wins?
Will American foreign policy change with Harris? No, not if Harris comes. If Harris comes, this policy will continue. I don’t think Harris and Walz have the power or the intention to change American foreign policy. I think they are a reflection of the big corporations, the CFR in New York, the Council on Foreign Relations, the think tanks founded during the Cold War, and the bureaucrats or politicians who grew up during the Cold War. But certainly this is a bad reflection. They are not smart, intelligent people who know the world like the old American bureaucrats.
Briefly, if Kamala Harris and Waltz come, which is a little less likely, the situation will not change. However, I believe that there will be significant changes with Trump. Everyone is already waiting for this. That’s why many people have left institutions or are leaving or are waiting for the elections after November.
6- Finally, what would you like to say about the changes in American society and the new world order?
In the last 40 years, important books have been written to understand the changes in American society and politics. Robert Putnam’s ‘Bowling Alone: The Collapse and Revival of American Community (2000)’ or Domhoff’s ‘Who Rules America (2022)’. These works are actually important pieces for understanding Trump’s MAGA social movement. In my opinion, it doesn’t matter which candidate is better for Türkiye, because Türkiye bases its policies on certain criteria, just like the presidential candidates in America, before the technological revolution. However, a different world is coming with technology and artificial intelligence. We can see the clues of this from China to America. I think America will be different after Trump.
