After the Russia-Ukraine War, the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) focused on the Russian threat in certain parts of Europe. Thus, the hope for Euro-Atlantic integration has emerged for many Balkan countries. In this context, Ankara Center for Crisis and Policy Studies (ANKASAM) presents to your attention the opinions it received from the Italian-based Istituto per gli Studi di Politica Internazionale (ISPI) Balkan Expert Giorgio Fruscione in order to evaluate the Balkan countries’ approaches towards NATO.
- How do you see the approach of the Balkan countries towards NATO?
The approaches are different within the Balkan region. While Serbia and the countries with a consistent Serb minority are contrary, the rest of the region has a positive stance, as they consider their NATO integration a pivotal part to complete the so-called transition process. The Serbian negative stance towards NATO is mainly due to the bombing campaign. This is understandable. However, since 1999 the topic has mainly remained a taboo if not a prey of nationalist politicians. And this is less understandable. Personally, I believe that in all Balkan countries public opinion should be better informed on the role of the Atlantic Alliance. Being part of NATO is considered mainly an ideological fact, while it has a security relevance, but also economic consideration, as for example it implies a 2% of GDP in military equipment and armaments.
- What do you think about NATO’s role in the Balkans?
The role of NATO in the Balkans has a great geopolitical relevance. The integration of Montenegro and North Macedonia has, de facto, limited the Russian influence in the region. From one side, this has helped these countries to have some security guarantees and to continue in a process of geopolitical alignment with all western institutions. On the other, this has resulted in the strengthening of Russia in Serbia and Bosnia-Herzegovina. This cannot but make the region further instable.
- Will NATO expand into the Balkans?
NATO does not “expand”, it welcomes new members on a voluntary basis. This could seem a simple terminological specification, but it makes a huge difference in the perception of the alliance in a region where it already has a compromised reputation. The same specification is needed when we talk about the war in Ukraine, for which “NATO expansion” is considered among the causes. Anyhow, I don’t believe that Bosnia or Serbia will become new members. As said, the public opinion in these two countries is playing against this possibility mainly because of the Russian influence and its misinformation campaigns. One such example occurred last March, when Russian ambassador to Bosnia-Herzegovina said there would be “reactions” in case Bosnia enters a military alliance. Such threats undermine the whole process even if the opposition to NATO membership comes only from Bosnian-Serb authorities.
On the other side, I believe NATO has a different military strategy in the region after the integration of Montenegro: the alliance is now present in all European countries on the Mediterranean Sea. As for Kosovo, NATO has there its biggest mission: there is no need for an official membership.
