North Korea passed a law declaring it a nuclear power on September 9, 2022.[1] Following this law, the Pyongyang Government began to conduct long-range ballistic missile tests with unprecedented frequency. This development has increased the security concerns of especially Japan and South Korea in the Asia-Pacific region. In particular, the missile launched by North Korea over Japan on October 4, 2022, for testing,[2] caused these concerns to reach the maximum level. For this reason, South Korea, Japan, and the United States (USA) began to organize joint military exercises.
In this context, Ankara Center for Crisis and Policy Studies (ANKASAM) presents the views of Alessandro Pio, Senior Advisor to the Italian Institute for International Political Studies (ISPI), to evaluate the increasing tension in the Asia-Pacific region due to North Korea’s nuclear activities.
- What do the exercises held in partnership with the US, South Korea, and Japan against North Korea’s long-range ballistic missile tests mean?
The exercises carried out in the region by South Korea, Japan, and the US show that in the main, North Korea’s long-range ballistic missile tests can be responded to cooperatively. By giving the message that they are together, Washington, Seoul, and Tokyo aim to deter the Pyongyang Government and prevent current nuclear tests. That’s why the exercises are a show of solidarity against North Korea. The main purpose here is to create a deterrent effect on North Korea and to enable the Pyongyang Government to step back from its current activities.
- Do you think that the military cooperation of South Korea, Japan, and the US against North Korea is sustainable? If so, what are the dimensions of this cooperation?
Regional cooperation between the three countries has historical roots. In other words, it can be said that cooperation has become easier because of these historical ties. For this reason, it is possible to say that this cooperation is sustainable. Another reason for this sustainability is that states can frame this cooperation. The union, which stems from the security concerns created by the actions of the Pyongyang Government, is not offensive. Rather, it is defensive.
- How much of a deterrent can the triple alliance against North Korea be? So, can it make Pyongyang take a step back?
It seems unlikely that the exercises carried out by the three states will have a deterrent effect against North Korea’s long-range ballistic missile tests or make the Pyongyang Government take a step back. It would not be rational to argue that the activities carried out under the leadership of the West in general and the USA, in particular, will stop North Korea.
- If North Korea attacks South Korea or Japan, can the US or North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) be expected to support these states?
If North Korea takes its current policies to a further level and attacks South Korea or Japan, the US will provide the necessary support to these countries. But this support will likely remain limited to the US. It is not possible to say that NATO will respond to any attack from the Pyongyang Government.
- Do you think that the cooperation of the USA, South Korea, and Japan in the region is aimed at surrounding China?
Yes, this can be observed. The cooperation and exercises carried out by South Korea, Japan, and the USA in the region, although they take place in response to the activities of North Korea, generally give a message to the entire region. This message is that any act of aggression in the region will be answered. This answer may even be military. Therefore, besides North Korea, China, which implements a proactive foreign policy, is also the addressee of the message in question.
Alessandro Pio
He is a senior consultant at the Italian Institute for International Political Studies (ISPI). He previously served as the Resident Managing Director of the Asian Development Bank’s (ADB) North American Representative Office (NARO) in Washington DC. He joined ADB in 1993 and before joining, he was a professor at Bocconi University, where he taught courses in macroeconomics and development economics. He has also worked for the Latin American Economic Commission and UNICEF. Pio holds a bachelor’s degree in economics and a master’s degree in community and regional planning. In addition, Pio has written many articles on economic development and edited for various publications.
[1] “Much Ado About Nothing: North Korea’s New Nuclear Law”, The Diplomat, https://thediplomat.com/2022/09/much-ado-about-nothing-north-koreas-new-nuclear-law/, (Date of Accession: 13.09.2022).
[2] “North Kore Sends Missile Soaring Over Japan in Escalation”, AP News, https://apnews.com/article/seoul-south-korea-north-joint-chiefs-of-staff-1026206c80666f1fcdb3983ebf45e14b, (Date of Accession: 04.10.2022).
