North Korea is one of the world’s largest nuclear powers. At the same time, Pyongyang conducted a record number of intercontinental ballistic missile tests and nuclear drills in 2022.[1] In this context, it can be said that the threat and danger in question are increasing day by day.
Moreover, North Korea is in serious competition with the United States of America (USA) and the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO). Both this threat and Pyongyang’s anti-Western foreign policy approach constitute a situation that needs to be taken seriously for the US and the West.
North Korea, on the other hand, is gaining an advantageous position in the global system due to both the rivalry between China and the United States and the Russia-Ukraine war [2] that started on February 24, 2022. This is because Washington and NATO have a variety of problems on which to spend their resources and energy.
This situation allows North Korea to find room for maneuver and implement its actions more easily. In this context, the West’s sanctions resolutions against North Korea in the United Nations Security Council (UNSC) are rejected by China and Russia. This causes the West to be unable to adequately channel North Korea-centered developments.
Prongyang attempted to launch a spy satellite on May 31, 2023;[3] but this attempt is known to have failed.[4] The incident raised serious concerns in countries geographically close to North Korea, particularly South Korea and Japan. Following the launch, authorities in Seoul, the capital of South Korea, issued warnings over loudspeakers in the city and sent messages to cell phones urging the public to move to safe places. Japan activated a missile warning system for the city of Okinawa.[5]
Therefore, it is possible to say that North Korea’s action has created a very serious concern in the region. This could lead to a further hardening of Seoul and Tokyo’s stance towards Pyonyang. It can also be argued that tensions between the US and North Korea will increase. However, it can be predicted that the actions to be taken jointly by the US, Japan and South Korea will provoke North Korea rather than deter it.
Moreover, on June 15, 2023, the South Korean military stated that North Korea launched two short-range missiles and fired them from the east coast. It is noteworthy that the launches took place immediately after Pyongyang warned of an “inevitable” response to military exercises organized by South Korean and US troops.[6]
Japan’s Defense Ministry said in a statement that two ballistic missiles probably flew in an irregular trajectory and fell into the country’s exclusive economic zone. Japanese officials said that one of these missiles fell into the Sea of Japan, also known as the East Sea, about 110 km northwest of Hegura Island, part of Ishikawa prefecture, while the other fell about 250 km away.[7] A joint statement was then issued by the United States, South Korea and Japan condemning Pyongyang’s action. The following statements were made in the statement:[8]
“These launches are in clear violation of multiple United Nations Security Council resolutions and demonstrate the threat that North Korea’s illicit weapons of mass destruction and ballistic missile programs pose to international peace and security in the region and to global non-proliferation”
In this context, it can be argued that tensions in the region are rising and evolving into a dangerous dimension due to North Korea’s nuclear actions. This may lead to a hot conflict in the future. However, it can be argued that the US will not want any hot confrontation in the North Korea dimension in the short term due to the Russia-Ukraine War and the problems with China.
To conclude, it is clear that this problem will not be solved in the short term and tensions will increase. However, it is also clear that this tension is not expected to turn into a hot conflict. On the other hand, it can be predicted that the threat posed by Pyongyang will strengthen the consolidation of the Seoul-Tokyo-Washington line.
[1] “North Korea’s Record Year of Missile Testing is Putting the World on Edge”, Cable News Network, https://edition.cnn.com/2022/12/26/asia/north-korea-missile-testing-year-end-intl-hnk/index.html, (Date of Accession: 01.06.2023).
[2] “Russia-Ukraine War Live Updates: Russian Missiles Strike Zelenskyy’s Hometown”, Australian Broadcasting Corportaion News, https://abcnews.go.com/International/live-updates/russia-ukraine-war/?id=99926452 (Date of Accession: 01.06.2023).
[3] “North Korea’s Spy Satellite Lanuch Fails as Rocket Falls into Sea”, The Korea Times, https://www.koreatimes.co.kr/www/nation/2023/05/103_352070.html, (Date of Accession: 01.06.2023).
[4] “North Korea Spy Satellite Launch Fails as Rocket Falls into the Sea”, Associated Press News, https://apnews.com/article/north-korea-launch-military-spy-satellite-db6ce3f08e1ec8e23674aef519d04403,(Date of Accession: 01.06.2023).
[5] “North Korea’s Spy…”, a.g.m.
[6] “North Korea Fires Two Missiles After South Korea-US Drills”, Al Jazeera, https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2023/6/15/north-korea-fires-two-missiles-after-south-korea-us-drills, (Date of Accession:19.06.2023).
[7] “North Korea Fires Two Short-Range Missiles After Warning of Response to Allied Drills”, Reuters, https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/north-korea-fires-ballistic-missile-skorea-2023-06-15/, (Date of Accession 19.06.2023).
[8] “North Korea Launches 2 Ballistic Missiles toward Sea in Protest of US-South Korea Military Drills”, Associated Press News, https://apnews.com/article/north-korea-ballistic-missile-launch-82fc44d252d20d33f15708177d84ffc6, (Date of Accession: 19.06.2023).
