India’s Foreign Minister, Subrahmanyam Jaishankar, stated on June 11, 2024, that in the new term, India will focus on resolving its border issues with China.[1] Jaishakar stated, “There are still some issues at the border with China, and our focus will be on how to resolve them.”[2]
Despite increasing trade, India-China relations remain concerning due to strategic competition and border clashes. In fact, bilateral trade between India and China exceeded $136 billion in 2023 despite rising tensions. At the same time, both sides have increased their military presence at the border. Furthermore, India is deepening its defense ties with Western countries to enhance its security.
Since April 2020, the two countries have conducted numerous rounds of military and diplomatic negotiations to find a solution to their border issues, but no definitive result has been achieved. There has been no summit meeting between Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Chinese President Xi Jinping since 2019. Xi chose not to attend the G20 Summit held in New Delhi in 2023.[3]
As Modi’s government begins its third term, there are signs that relations with Beijing may ease. Both countries intend to prioritize their economic interests and prevent regional tensions from escalating. China and India have not lost sight of their vision to jointly build the Asian Century. The deep historical ties between the two countries could shape Asia’s future, potentially helping to overcome regional challenges. Indeed, the aspirations of China and India to lead Asia and the Global South foster both competition and a foundation for cooperation.
Under Modi’s leadership, India’s military modernization, technological cooperation, and economic alignment with the United States contradict China’s interests in its immediate vicinity. While China and India were economically comparable at the start of the 21st century, China’s extraordinary economic growth, particularly through the Belt and Road Initiative, has left India behind. This disparity has significantly influenced New Delhi’s foreign policy choices.
While India continues to maintain a cautious approach towards China, it is also expected to deepen its defense ties with the United States.[4] Immediately after declaring victory in the Indian elections, Prime Minister Narendra Modi stated that in the new term, the government will focus on increasing domestic defense production and exports.[5] Investments in the defense sector could indicate that India is placing greater emphasis on regional security and aims to be better prepared for competition with China. On the other hand, India’s goal to increase exports may reflect its efforts to avoid conflict and build a stable region in the new term.
India needs broader cooperation with its Western allies more than ever to counter a much stronger China. China is engaged in a strategic struggle with India both at the border and at sea. This situation influences India to alter some of its defense partnerships and primarily orient itself towards the West. Additionally, China maintains close relations with Pakistan, India’s traditional rival. Furthermore, China is increasing its defense cooperation with India’s neighbors, including Nepal and Bangladesh, as well as the Maldives and Sri Lanka.
Despite regional competition, maintaining positive bilateral relations is crucial. Chinese Foreign Ministry Spokesperson Mao Ning congratulated Modi on the election results and added that “his country is ready to work with India.”.[6] Mao stated that the “solid and stable” relationship between India and China is “in the interests of both countries and helps promote peace and development in the region.”
Recall that in March 2024, when it was announced that India would deploy numerous military units to the China border, the Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs expressed its reaction. Regarding this matter, Mao Ning made the following statement:[7]
“China is committed to working with India to maintain peace and stability in border areas. We believe that India’s actions do not contribute to preserving peace or reducing tensions.”
China states that India’s military movements along the border “do not contribute to maintaining peace and reducing tensions.” Both parties have agreed to avoid any armed conflict along the Line of Actual Control (LAC), as stipulated in previous agreements. This border dispute has made political relations between India and China “volatile.” For instance, the only meeting between Modi and Xi in the past three years occurred during breaks at the BRICS Summit in Brazil in August 2023. During this summit, both leaders agreed on “expeditious disengagement and de-escalation” along the disputed border.
In the current context, disputes persist across various sectors along the India-China border, amidst increasingly evident effects of global polarization in the Asia-Pacific region. India is making moves to enhance its competitive edge against China and is striving to strengthen its relations with the West across all sectors. Despite this global competitive environment, India and China are finding opportunities for indirect or direct cooperation while developing policies towards the Global South. If both parties exhibit a clear stance against interventions by third parties and prioritize a win-win approach in their bilateral relations, they can establish numerous new partnerships across Asia.
[1] “India to focus on solving border issues with China, foreign minister says.”, Reuters, https://www.reuters.com/world/india/india-focus-solving-border-issues-with-china-foreign-minister-says-2024-06-11/, (Date of Access: 24.06.2024).
[2] Ibıd.
[3] “Evolving strategies on the India-China border”, Gis Report Online, https://www.gisreportsonline.com/r/india-china-border/, (Date of Access: 24.06.2024).
[4] “Third term for Modi likely to see closer defense ties with US as India’s rivalry with China grows”, Independent, https://www.independent.co.uk/news/narendra-modi-ap-india-china-washington-b2558421.html, (Date of Access: 24.06.2024).
[5] Ibıd.
[6] Ibıd.
[7] “India ‘to send 10,000 more troops to border’ with China and dares Beijing to ‘bat an eyelid’”, Independent, https://www.independent.co.uk/asia/india/india-china-border-10000-troops-rajnath-singh-b2509313.html, (Date of Access: 24.06.2024).
