Russia’s deployment of approximately 100,000 troops to the Ukrainian border has again escalated the tension between the two countries that has been going on since 2014. Stating that they are uncomfortable with the presence of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) in the region, Russian President Vladimir Putin blames the United States (US) and NATO for the increase in tension in the region. Claiming that NATO’s eastward expansion poses a threat to national security, the Moscow administration published a draft text on “security guarantees”, which includes the withdrawal of NATO forces from Eastern and Central Europe and the rejection of membership requests by former Soviet Union countries, especially Ukraine and Georgia.
Moscow’s security requests to the United States and NATO were met with backlash by Washington and its allies. Declaring that they will definitely not accept Russia’s demands regarding NATO, the Washington administration is preparing for diplomatic talks with Moscow. The parties are expected to start negotiations in the coming days.
In this context, experts evaluating the developments in the Washington-Moscow line to the Ankara Center for Crisis and Policy Studies (ANKASAM) report that the negotiation process will be difficult.
ANKASAM International Relations Expert Dr. Sabir Askeroğlu: Negotiations can reduce tensions centered on Ukraine.
Stating that Russia has long wanted to communicate with the United States, Dr. Sabir Askeroğlu said, “Russia forced the USA to hold talks. If there was no agreement, there was a risk that Russia would intervene in Ukraine. Such a possibility could also affect the US foreign policy towards Ukraine. Because there is strategic cooperation between the USA and Ukraine. For this reason, the Washington administration is, in a sense, responsible for the security of Ukraine. Therefore, the United States armed Ukraine to prevent Russian intervention. All this caused tension. However, a possible crisis could complicate the work of the USA. Now, the United States has had to negotiate with Russia so that the issue does not turn into a serious crisis.” said.
Drawing attention to the importance of negotiations, Askeroğlu said, “The talks can eliminate a serious security risk. It can decrease the tension in the area. However, it is very difficult to reach an agreement on the commitments Moscow demands.” made his comment.
International Relations Expert Dr. İntigam Memedov: Russia’s security demands will not be accepted by the US and NATO.
Dr. Intigam Memedov said, “The USA, NATO and Russia know each other’s interests. The process we are witnessing today is beneficial for both parties. This is the reason why it came to the fore.” used the phrases.
Claiming that the negotiations are an opportunity to consolidate Joe Biden’s role in international security issues, Memedov said, “Biden is looking for something global like the Build Back Better World Project (B3W) in domestic politics or the Korean-American Panmunjom Summit that Trump participated. Putin, on the other hand, articulates two of Russia’s classic conditions, such as NATO not expanding eastward and no military bases being established in post-Soviet countries” made a statement.
Finally, claiming that the demands of Russia in the draft agreement will not be accepted by the USA and NATO, Memedov said, “We can foresee that the negotiations will continue. A positive outcome from the talks depends on whether the parties make concessions.” he concluded his statement.
Karabuk University, Department of International Relations, Prof. Ali Asker: Russia thinks own demands will be accepted by the United States.
Stating that Russia’s security demands are not a new issue, Prof. Ali Asker interpreted the draft text sent to the USA as a documented version of 30-year-old problems, emphasizing that the eastward expansion of NATO is Russia’s main problem. In this context, Asker said, “The eastward expansion of NATO and the Western threat approaching Russia’s borders mean that Russia is surrounded.” said.
Compared to other experts, Asker claimed that the USA would respond positively to Russia’s security demands and would ask for some assurances in return, adding that the USA could make additional demands from Russia within the scope of its security obligations regarding Ukraine, Eastern Europe, South Caucasus and Central Asian countries.” made his comment.
Istinye University Faculty Member Assoc. Prof. Fahri Erenel: The chances of Russia failing against NATO are a slight chance.
Reminding that NATO did not fulfill its promises not to expand to the east during the Gorbachev era, and that this situation was frequently mentioned on the Russian side, Assoc. Dr. Fahri Erenel said, “Combining its geopolitical depth with its historical and cultural richness, Russia is never an ordinary country. Therefore, sanctions or a containment strategy will not deter Moscow from acting in line with the near-periphery doctrine.” made a statement.
In addition, Erenel said, “opposite of Russia’s obvious superiority in hypersonic missiles and air defense systems, the cooperation agreement it signed with China, its membership in the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) and the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO), increased military in the Baltic, Arctic and North Pacific, starting naval and air patrol activities with China in the South China Sea and the Indian Ocean, reaching the ability to shoot satellites in space, developing its military capacity in all areas and being led by a strong leader like Putin, There is a NATO, which show little attempts against Russia’s efforts. In this environment, the probability of Moscow failing is negligible.” he said.
Retired Ambassador Hulusi Kılıç: Security guarantee demands are Russia’s longing for the Warsaw Pact era.
Commenting on Russia’s request for security guarantees from the USA and NATO, which gave serious support to Ukraine, as a wise act, Retired Ambassador Hulusi Kılıç said, “This contract is reminding the negotiation between NATO and the Warsaw Pact on the limitation of nuclear and long-range weapons during the Cold War period. Therefore, the demands for security guarantees are an indication of Russia’s longing for the Warsaw Pact era.” said.
Kılıç drew attention to the 6th and 7th articles of the 9-item draft agreement, which is expected to be negotiated between the parties at the beginning of 2022, and said, “The USA and NATO will never accept these two articles, which are also closely related to Turkey. In this context, we can easily say that these negotiations will take a long time.” made its assessment.
Journalist Ceyda Karan: If “moderating” intermediate formulas cannot be produced, a troubled period may be entered around the world.
Journalist Ceyda Karan, who stated that the Biden administration is trying to re-establish the game with ‘great power competition’ against the rising economic, political and military powers in the Euro-Atlantic and Asia Pacific, said, “The “engine” of US hegemony is still in Europe and this engine has started “mistaking”. Therefore, the idea of weakening Europe’s growing economic and commercial ties with Russia and China came to the fore in the White House. Due to its proximity to Europe and the economic ties that the Nord Stream-2 Project will establish, Russia has come to the fore as an actor that needs urgent action for the United States. Therefore, the new game was built on the Ukraine once again. In this sense, the discourse of “Russian threat to the former Soviet republic that wants to choose the West” came to the fore. NATO’s “essential mission” is the hegemony of the Western-centered neoliberal order’s political economy. For this reason, the places where it cannot fully penetrate become a target.” made her comment.
Karan stated that “This is the first time we see Moscow clearly put its existential and vital interests on the table in 30 years. If “moderating” intermediate formulas cannot be produced, a troubled period may be entered worldwide.”
