As the presidential elections are approaching in the United States of America (USA), the whole world is wondering how the elections will shape American foreign policy and whether there will be changes. Experts who made evaluations to the Ankara Center for Crisis and Political Studies (ANKASAM) think that Harris will follow a policy that is a continuation of the Biden era in American foreign policy, while they foresee changes in foreign policy if Trump wins. From this point of view, ANKASAM presents to your attention the opinions received from Atatürk University Faculty Member Prof. Mehmet Sait DİLEK and Cappadocia University Faculty Member Prof. Tuğrul Keskin.
Atatürk University Faculty Member Prof. Mehmet Sait DİLEK: The Republican candidate Trump, and the Democratic candidate Harris stand out as experienced political figures since they were the main components of previous American administrations.
Referring to the conjunctural changes in the world, Prof. Mehmet Sait Dilek, Head of the Department of International Relations, Atatürk University Faculty of Economics and Administrative Sciences, said: “Macro problems such as the Russia-Ukraine War and Israel’s aggressive behavior cause the functionality of international organizations and international law to be discussed and concerns about the risk of a global war to rise. Therefore, the world public closely follows the US Presidential elections to be held on 5 November 2024 and seeks answers to the question of what will be the reflections of the new era on foreign policy.”
Dilek stated, “The Republican candidate Trump and the Democratic candidate Harris stand out as experienced political figures since they were the main components of the previous American administrations. However, since Trump, who acts with the slogan of change, is an unpredictable political personality, there is no public consensus on whether he will make radical decisions both domestically and internationally if elected President. Similar to his first term, Trump is expected to pursue a biased policy, especially on Israel and Iran”.
Dilek continued: “In other key foreign policy issues, it is likely that he will adopt a very different foreign policy approach than the Democrats. Namely, Trump, who served as the US President between 2016 and 2020, has pursued a strategy that is largely different from the so-called ‘liberal’ approaches of the Democrats in American foreign policy. For instance, Trump terminated the Cuba and Iran openings and laid the foundations for steps that led Israel to act more aggressively in the Middle East. Trying to maximize American interests, Trump, with his ‘America First’ slogan, has not refrained from imposing additional tariffs in order to prevent China’s rising economic and technological power, while making the trans-Atlantic relations with its European allies fragile. His efforts to normalize relations with Russia have been interrupted by the Mueller investigation against him”.
Furthermore, Dilek noted, “Kamala Harris, the Democratic presidential candidate, served as the vice president for four years, which is the second critical task in the Biden administration. Hence, it is more likely that Harris, who is a more predictable leader, will largely follow the foreign policy codes of the Biden era and emphasize continuity with small-scale changes. For example, it is expected that the Harris administration will continue to strongly support Ukraine’s resistance against Russia and focus on deepening alliances through a balancing strategy in the Asia-Pacific against the rise of China. Moreover, if the Harris administration comes to power, it is stated by various quarters that it will continue to reconcile its interests with NATO and the EU, as in the Biden era, and will primarily focus on ensuring Israel’s security in his Middle East policy”.
Cappadocia University Faculty Member Prof. Tuğrul KESKİN: There is a question mark in the world about what America’s foreign policy will be, especially if Trump wins.
Emphasizing the important elements in American foreign policy, Cappadocia University International Relations Faculty Member Prof. Tuğrul Keskin said, “There is a question mark in the world about what America’s foreign policy will be if Harris wins, especially if Trump wins. This includes countries in the Middle East, China and Europe. Europe is uncomfortable with Trump’s victory because of the Ukraine War. This is because of the liberal world order that emerged after the Second World War, following the technological revolution that emerged in the 1990s within certain criteria, we are now at the borders of the beginning of a different world. Many political actors in the world belong to the previous world, including Harris and Trump. In this context, to understand American foreign policy, it is necessary to first understand American society, the change in American society, the changes and transformations in the economy, culture, and politics in American society”.
Illustrating the issue, Keskin pointed out, “In other words, the change in the economy has also changed American culture and politics. This is one of the reasons why Trump is so strong. Because Trump is now the spokesperson of these people in America, who are called the middle class, whites, and people living in rural areas in general, in other words, he is a new source of hope for those who have lost their jobs in rural areas and who have been negatively affected by globalization. We see where the movement that supports Trump, which they call the MAGA Movement, the Great MAGA Movement, is strong: Mostly in rural areas. These people have been affected by globalization, technology companies and companies in America investing in other countries for cheap labor”.
Explaining the facts behind Trump’s rise to power, Keskin said, “A movement is coming from below. A social movement. And the groups say ‘Why am I fighting, why am I paying 100 billion dollars to Ukraine’. In other words, 12.2 percent of the people in America do not have health insurance, a big number, and while there is unemployment, the middle class has collapsed, people cannot pay their rent. There is such an economic crisis in America, even though it is not said. As a result, Trump has become stronger and stronger. So if you look at the people who support Trump, including J.D. Vance, whom he chose as his vice-president, they are people from rural areas. J.D. Vance has his own words: ‘Why are we paying money to Ukraine? ‘Why did we go there’, he says. So, Americans have started to ask these questions. Those who ask these questions are normal American citizens”.
Evaluating whether the American foreign policy will change under a possible Harris administration, Keskin stated, “It will not change if Harris comes. If Harris comes, this policy will continue. I don’t think Harris and Walz have the power or the intention to change America’s foreign policy. I think they are a reflection of big corporations, the CFR in New York, the Council on Foreign Relations, think tanks founded during the Cold War, and bureaucrats or politicians who grew up during the Cold War. But certainly this is a bad reflection. These are not smart, intelligent people who know and recognise the world like the old American bureaucrats”.
Referring to the political environment in the USA, Keskin noted, “There is actually a wait in Washington. Everything has stopped right now. In the US Ministry of Defence, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, the Senate and the Congress. One of the most important institutions in the US is the US Department of Justice. It has also stopped in the US Department of Justice. Because the US Ministry of Justice is the only institution that supervises the president, the Congress, the Senate, the army and the intelligence. The American Ministry of Justice actually forms the basis of the institutions here. There is a possibility that Trump will come. That’s why a group that realised that Trump would come started to leave slowly. There is a wait in Washington. It seems that there will be big changes in American foreign policy”.
Concluding his remarks on the changes in American society and the new world order, Keskin said, “In the last 40 years, very important books have been written to understand the changes in American society and politics. Robert Putnam’s ‘Bowling Alone: The Collapse and Revival of American Community (Bowling Alone: The Collapse and Revival of American Community by Robert D. Putnam. 2000)’ or Domhoff’s ‘Who Rules America (Who Rules America, G. William Domhoff. 2022)’ These studies are actually important works to understand Trump’s MAGA social movement. In my opinion, it does not matter which candidate is better for Turkey, because Turkey bases its policies on pre-technological revolution ideologies within certain criteria, just like the presidential candidates in America. However, a different world is coming with technology and artificial intelligence. We can see hints of this from China to America. I believe that America will also be different after Trump”.
