South Africans are preparing for one of the most critical general elections since the end of “Apartheid” rule. The people who will go to the polls on May 29, 2024 may witness a period when, as polls indicate, the ruling African National Congress (ANC) may lose the majority for the first time.
A similar situation had not happened before in South Africa since Nelson Mandela led the party to power in 1994.[1] Although there are various challenges in South Africa, such as polling, the use of multiple languages, access difficulties and security concerns, many experts say that the ANC is facing a disillusioned public and this election will be the biggest challenge in the party’s history.
This election is the seventh general election held in South Africa since the end of white minority rule 30 years ago. According to the Independent Electoral Commission (IEC), 27.79 million people have registered to vote. This number has been recorded as the highest number of voters ever in a South African election. The ANC’s decline in popularity reflects the difficulties that liberation movements across the continent have faced in the governance processes since coming to power.
These elections have the potential to shape not only the political landscape of South Africa, but also the country’s future economic and social policies. The ANC’s loss of the majority could lead to the formation of new coalitions and a re-evaluation of policies in the country. In this context, the May 29, 2024 elections stand out as an important turning point in the political history of South Africa. This critical election is likely to be an important touchstone that will determine the future of South Africa and affect the political and economic stability in the country.[2]
Although polls show that the ANC’s support is around 40%, recent polls indicate that the party’s support rate is increasing. The ANC’s strong grassroots organization and intensive campaigns are one of the main reasons for this increase. If the ANC wins a majority, it is likely that the current President Cyril Ramaphosa will continue in office. This scenario is very important in terms of maintaining the stability of the party and restoring confidence in its leadership.
If the ANC loses the majority, it seems likely that a leadership struggle will flare up within the party. If the ANC’s vote share remains at or below 40%, criticism of Cyril Ramaphosa’s leadership will increase and the party’s search for a new leader will be on the agenda. This situation may significantly affect the internal dynamics of the party and its future policies. The possibility of Ramaphosa transferring his post during his term is also on the agenda. This possible transfer scenario is also seen as possible evaluations in terms of paving the way for leadership candidates within the party and democratization.
If the ANC loses its majority by a small margin, it will have to seek a coalition with small or medium-sized parties. At this point, the socially conservative Inkatha Freedom Party (IFP) stands out as a potential partner. However, the fact that the IFP leader does not want to support the ANC makes this possibility difficult. Other smaller parties, Al-Jama’ah (Jamaat) and the Patriotic Alliance are also among the potential coalition partners. Dec.[3]
If the ANC loses the majority by a larger margin, it is expected that it will seek to form a coalition with major parties such as the Democratic Alliance (DA) or the Economic Freedom Fighters (EFF). Although an agreement with the Democratic Alliance is preferred by investors and the business community, ideological differences may make it difficult to stabilize such a coalition. A coalition with the EFF, on the other hand, may require the ANC to make serious policy concessions, which could further complicate the internal dynamics of the party.[4] The EFF is a compelling potential political partner for the ANC as a party that advocates Pan-African policies in a more radical way.
This election could lead to significant changes in the political landscape of South Africa. The ANC’s loss of the majority could reshape the internal structure of the party and its future leadership structure. The formation of coalition governments, on the other hand, can lead to instability in the country’s governance and complicate the policy-making process. In addition, major changes in economic reforms and social policies may be on the agenda.
As a result, South Africa’s May 29, 2024 elections have the potential to profoundly affect not only the current political leadership, but also the country’s democratic institutions and policies. These elections are considered as a critical turning point in terms of ensuring long-term political and economic stability in the country.
[1] “Nelson Mandela’s party has ruled South Africa for three decades – it now faces a critical moment of truth”, CNN, https://edition.cnn.com/2024/05/22/africa/south-africa-elections-explained-intl/index.html, (Access Date: 24.05.2024).
[2] Ibid.
[3] Ibıd.
[4] “South Africa elections: what are the issues and will ANC lose its majority?”, The Guardian,
https://www.theguardian.com/world/article/2024/may/23/south-africa-elections-what-are-the-issues-and-will-the-anc-lose , (Access Date: 24.05.2024).
