The South Caucasus has been an important region in history and today due to its geopolitical location and natural resources. However, these features, which provide an advantage to the region geographically, have led to the destabilization of the region in the political sphere and power struggles from time to time. In fact, the attitudes of regional and global actors, especially the United States of America (USA), [1] encouraging Armenia in the frame of anti-terrorism operation launched by Azerbaijan in Karabakh on September 19, 2023, are turning the South Caucasus into a conflict area of geopolitical interests.
From one side, the efforts of Azerbaijan and its allies to maintain peace and stability in the region for nearly thirty years, and from the other side, the spread of the system struggle of global actors to the region are effective in shaping the South Caucasus. So, what kind of approach does Europe adopt towards the South Caucasus, which is in a process of construction in the geopolitical context?
When the importance of the South Caucasus for Europe is analyzed, the existence of the energy resources of the South Caucasus and its neighbor Central Asia attracts attention. With the start of the Russia-Ukraine War, Europe faced an energy crisis. The importance of the South Caucasus has increased in terms of resources and logistics in order to replace the energy imported from Russia.
Secondly, in terms of European security the region gained more importance. After the start of the Russia-Ukraine War, European countries, together with the USA, want to play an active role in the South Caucasus in order to surround Russia from the south. If they can break Russia’s influence in the South Caucasu, they will be able to create a maneuvering area suitable for their own interests in the gap that will emerge in the region. In this context, Georgia has become a country of strategic importance for Europe. After the Rose Revolution, Georgia broke the Russian influence and turned towards the West. It has started to develop cooperation with the EU in economic, political and social fields.
In the problem between the other two countries of the region, Azerbaijan and Armenia, the EU wants to take an active part in the region as a mediator. After the unsuccessful policies of the OSCE Minsk group, meetings are held frequently with the parties to resolve the problem. Thus the last meeting was held on September 26, 2022, with EU Council President Charles Michel’s advisors Simon Mordue and Magdalena Grono, EU’s Special Representative for the South Caucasus Toivo Klaar, Azerbaijani President Counselor Hikmet Hajiyev and Armenian National Security Council Secretary Armen Grigoryan, French President Emmanuel Macron. It took place at the meeting held in Belgium with the participation of Emmanuel Bonne, advisor to Germany, and Jens Ploetner, advisor to German Chancellor Olaf Scholz.
It was stated that the needs of the local people as well as the preparations for the Azerbaijan-Armenia meeting, which is planned to be held at the European Political Community summit planned to be held in Granada, Spain on October 5, 2023, were discussed at the meeting[2] The meeting between Azerbaijani President Aliyev and Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan, which will be held with the participation of French President Emmanuel Macron, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz and European Council President Charles Michel, can be considered as a step of Europe’s policy of involvement in the South Caucasus.
Another critical issue in this context is whether the EU has the potential to be a mediator in the Azerbaijan-Armenia conflict. As it is obvious, the actor who will be the mediator in conflict resolution is expected to treat the parties equally and have an impartiality that will solve the problem by considering the interests of both parties. However, in the contrary to its attitude towards the Azerbaijani lands occupied by Armenia for thirty years and the Azerbaijani Turks who were subjected to violence EU institutions and European countries adopted a pro-Armenia discourse regarding the operation against terrorists, which lasted less than 24 hours
The European Parliament described this operation as an “unfair attack” and condemned Azerbaijan.[3] French President Emmanuel Macron made statements such as “Armenia’s territorial integrity is threatened by Azerbaijan and France is in close contact with Armenian Prime Minister Pashinyan.”[4] The UK’s attitude towards the 24-hour operation was that “Azerbaijan was risking permanent peace and escalating tensions”.
On the other hand, it was noteworthy that Armenians living in Karabakh left the region, despite Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev’s call [5] that the rights of Armenian residents would be secured within the national and international laws. The discourse that Pashinyan is trying to announce to the world public as a humanitarian crisis is supported by other European countries, as well as the USA and France, where the Armenian diaspora is dominant. For example, the UK-based publication Independent has publications about those who fled their homes because of fear of ethnic cleansing and the difficulties they experienced. [6] It is obvious that there is an effort to create the perception that there is a humanitarian crisis that forces the Armenian people to migrate.
Contrary to Aliyev’s statements that the remaining Armenians are equal citizens of the country and that food, fuel and humanitarian support will continue for the Armenians who left, the Western-backed Armenian Government is implementing a policy of fear towards the Armenians in Karabakh. Prime Minister Pashinyan’s fictional statements that Azerbaijan continues to carry out ethnic cleansing of Armenians in Karabakh cause Armenians in the region to feel psychologically threatened, cause more civilians to migrate to Armenia, and some of them become radicalized and join terrorist groups.
Using these migrations, which are voluntary rather than forced, as a means of propaganda, the USA and European countries aim to enter the region with international observer missions. Because there are calls in this direction. [7] President Aliyev states that UN officials will be accepted in response to these calls On the other hand, Europe is expected to increase its presence in Armenia with the economic aid provided to Armenia under the name of preventing the humanitarian crisis
As a result, European countries are trying to create a profile of “victim Armenia”, whose so-called human rights have been violated, on the one hand, and “criminal Azerbaijan”, to make the world public forget about Azerbaijan’s just war, which lasted nearly thirty years. In this way, they want to be deployed in the South Caucasus in order to intervene in a humanitarian crisis and to design a region suitable for their interests by establishing a partnership with Armenia.
This biased policy of Europe radicalizes Armenian groups and poses a threat to regional security. Therefore, Europe’s current approach prevents the South Caucasus geopolitics from being built for the benefit of the countries in the region, it forces Azerbaijan to implement proactive policies towards Armenia and its allies.
[1] “Armenia Accuses Azerbaijan of ‘Ethnic Cleansing’ In Nagorno-Karabakh Region as 65,000 Forcefully Displaced”, CBS News, https://www.cbsnews.com/news/azerbaijan-armenia-nagorno-karabakh-ethnic-cleansing-65000-forcefully-displaced/, (Erişim Tarihi: 02.10.2023).
[2] “Statement By Spokesperson for President of The European Council Charles Michel on Armenia-Azerbaijan Normalisation”, Council of European Union, https://www.consilium.europa.eu/en/press/press-releases/2023/09/26/statement-by-spokesperson-for-president-of-the-european-council-charles-michel-on-armenia-azerbaijan-normalisation-26-september-2023/, (Erişim Tarihi: 28.09.2023).
[3]“Joint Statement on Azerbaijan’s Attack on Nagorno-Karabakh”, European Parliament, https://www.europarl.europa.eu/delegations/en/product/product-details/20230919DPU37422, (Erişim Tarihi: 28.09.2023).
[4]“France Supports Terrıtorıal Integrıty of Armenıa–Macron”, Regional Post, https://regionalpost.org/en/articles/france-supports-territorial-integrity-of-armenia-macron.html, (Erişim Tarihi: 28.09.2023).
[5] Ruslan Rehimov, “Aliyev, Karabağ Ermenilerinin Haklarının Güvence Altına Alınacağını Belirtti”, Anadolu Ajansı, https://www.aa.com.tr/tr/dunya/aliyev-karabag-ermenilerinin-haklarinin-guvence-altina-alinacagini-belirtti/3002484, (Erişim Tarihi: 28.09.2023).
[6] “I Feel Empty’: Armenians Describe Escape After Fall of Nagorno-Karabakh”, Independent, https://www.independent.co.uk/tv/news/nagorno-karabakh-azerbaijan-armenia-refugee-b2421602.html, (Erişim Tarihi: 02.10.2023).
[7] “US, Germany Call for Observers in Nagorno-Karabakh”, VOA News, https://www.voanews.com/a/us-germany-call-for-observers-in-nagorno-karabakh/7286741.html, (Erişim Tarihi: 02.10.2023).
