US-North Korea: “who” Won, “who” Lost?

It had turned into daisy fortune: saying they will meet or will not meet… Of course you understand what I am talking about. Yes, I’m talking about US President Donald Trump and the North Korean leader Jong-un. The two leaders who call each other, “senile, mentally ill, crazy American pie, old man” and “rocket man, sick dog, crazy man, short and fat man.”

Eventually, they met in Singapore on June 12. As a result of the meeting described as “fantastic” by Trump, “science fiction film” by Kim they signed a “very comprehensive agreement”.

But let’s put it beforehand, so far this “comprehensive agreement” is not explained. There’s a four-item statement that they just signed in front of the press. When we look at the subject matter published by Sputnik, we see that it contains the following items:

  1. The United States and the DPRK commit to establish new U.S.-DPRK relations in accordance with the desire of the peoples of the two countries for peace and prosperity.
  2. The United States and the DPRK will join their efforts to build a lasting and stable peace regime on the Korean Peninsula.
  3. Reaffirming the April 27, 2018 Panmunjom Declaration, the DPRK commits to work toward complete denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula.
  4. The United States and the DPRK commit to recovering POW/MIA remains, including the immediate repatriation of those already identified.

These articles can be expressed in Turkish as follows: 1) The crisis is now frozen. 2) Both sides took a step towards time-saving. 3) The end of the process is open. 4) There is no need to be overly optimistic, as the life of this treaty depends on Trump’s one tweet. 5) The third parties have some doubts about this treaty.

As a matter of fact, the statements from Russia and Iran are very striking at this point and are very much confirming our determination above. For example, Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergey Ryabkov once again brought out the famous “Russian skepticism”, saying that they found the summit of Trump and Kim positive, but that the “devil is in detail” was hidden and that they should wait for details.

Iranian Government Spokesman Mohammad Bagher Nobakht when he warns the North Korean leader seems to be unable stop himself to criticize him. Nobakht’s statement has been quite remarkable in this respect: “We don’t know what type of person the North Korean leader is negotiating with. It is not clear that he (Trump) would not cancel the agreement before returning home”.

“China Factor” in the process …

China’s approach indicates that it is the most satisfied country in this process. As a matter of fact, Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi said before the summit that US President Donald Trump and North Korean leader Kim Jong-un expecting to establish peace mechanisms for the Korean Peninsula at the summit in Singapore. Therefore, the process in the context of the US-North Korea seems to have developed and ended in a way that China desires.

As a matter of fact, considering the following achievements of China, it is clear that what Foreign Minister Wang Yi means and what the gains are:

1) It has given an important message to the point that it pursues a peaceful policy towards the whole region and the world with its policy between North Korea and the US. In other words, as the background architect of this summit between the US and North Korea, China has made an important move as the peacemaking power of the future.

2) Beijing will undoubtedly use it effectively in its foreign policy. In particular, a way to more effective cooperation has been opened in the immediate vicinity of the US influence area. China will be able to convince all countries who wishing to get rid of the US influence that the aftermath is not a threat, but an opportunity. In this context, China’s hand has been strengthened.

3) The US will no longer be able to use important reason in its siege policy towards China as it used to be. The US has lost ground for an important “legitimacy” suddenly in “one night or morning”. Therefore, while China has overcome a major problem in its vicinity, it appears that the US has weakened in the context of justifications.

4) The Chinese will concentrate more on the projects it has implemented in regional-global scale, especially “Belt and Road Initiative”. Furthermore, it has had an important opportunity to implement these projects in a more secure way.

These items can of course be further reproduced. But in essence that’s what this is about.

Expectations of the USA and North Korea …

So, the US and North Korea have no gains? Of course there is. I revealed my determination extensively on April 30, in my article titled “The United Korea”: Another name for the US geopolitical-strategic depression” which was published in this corner. Those who desire can look there. But if you wish that I say something briefly, I will also mention it …

First of all, North Korea has given the following message in a colloquial manner to the whole world: “Set a thief to catch a thief”. In other words, North Korea has given a tangible message that speaking in the language of the US is not really empty at all. This will at least motivate Iran at least. In addition, while North Korea has further reinforced Beijing’s confidence towards itself, it has revealed to all parties how critical it is in regional policy.

Apart from these, though it is incomplete, this process will provide a relaxation opportunity as seen in previous experiences. Therefore, North Korea seems to have put the time it wants in its side pocket. This will undoubtedly lay the ground for Kim to increase his power inside even further.

When it comes to the US, at least it has survived from loosing South Korea for now, has stopped the “United Korea” project. The US, as Kim says “senile, mentally ill, crazy American pie, old man” has gained time to concentrate more on the Middle East, especially on Iran. Quite hot days are waiting for Iran-based Middle East, Afghanistan-based South Asia and Central Asia.

I wish all of my readers to have a good holiday, and I give my regards and greetings …