From the United States to Russia, from Assad to Rouhani, from China to North Korea, from Baghdad to Ankara, from the “Old Continent” to “Ascending Asia” almost every part of the world, is throwing down the gauntlet. Diplomacy is very much worn out and close to throw the sponge, on the contrary weapons are piped up as a “Doomsday War” is an ace.
The inconsiderate & aggressive attitude of the United States to the latest developments in Syria, Iraq and Gulf centred frontiers is met with an equal severity and momentum. The threats of the United States administration are unhesitatingly outfaced, which in return drives President Donald Trump out of control.
For instance, the remarks made by Kremlin that “threats against the legitimate government of Syria are inadmissible” in retaliation to Washington administration’s statement that “the Syrian government is preparing for another chemical attack and in the event of such attack occurring the Assad regime will pay a hefty price” are noteworthy.
The depict becomes clearer when we combine the images of Syrian President Bashar Al-Assad boarding a Russian warplane with the aforestated case. Assad is giving the clear message that he along with Russia is ready for war. To further elaborate on the scheme, it is utile to contemplate upon Russia’s stance in Iran and Turkey.
De Facto Alliance!
At the beginning of the Syrian crisis, Iran openly declared that due to the alliance agreement sealed with the Syrian government, a military intervention in this country would correlate to Iran entering into a war. This was followed by an elucidation from Russia that went unnoticed. Russia thereby stated that if Iran entered into war, it would not remain silent. There was unerringly a domino situation and following this exegesis, the US back-pedalled relinquishing Turkey which in return initiated the Geneva Process with Russia-Iran duo.
It is understood that Russia, which asserted that an intervention in Iran or a war in which Iran is a facet would be a preamble for Third World War, is plausibly inclined to administer tantamount stance veritably to Turkey. Although Moscow does not declare this explicitly, recent Turkish-Russian relations, especially after 27th of June ratify such dissertation.
Therefore, a war in which Turkey is a component is also equivalent to induction of the Third World War, which the US is petrified of. This is due to crosscut the US pursues, which further ossifies the Turkish-Russian-Iranian triple alliance and sows the seeds for Russian nuclear deterrence.
It seems that the role of triple guarantor mechanism substantiated in Astana following the Moscow Summit will not be limited to Syria. The developments indicate that this mechanism will extend to a vast geography from Syria along with Iraq and the Gulf. The forefront role played by Turkey-Iran and sub rosa by Russia in the Saudi-Qatari crisis and along with the latest analysis published in the Washington Post regarding Turkey’s possible membership in the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation should not be overlooked.
Herein, undoubtedly, the Turkish-Russian relations occupy a critical predicament. The materialisation of Turkish-Russian relations after 27th of June candidly point to a cooperation against the Greater Middle-East Initiative. This issue which hasn’t escaped attention since November 16th, 2001 determines the attitude of Turkey and Russia in counterpart to the Greater Middle-East Initiative/ Eurasian Continent Project and its accompanying regional dimension.
As a matter of fact, Iran has taken its place as the third actor within this triad. During the course of time Syria, Iraq, Qatar and even Azerbaijan and Pakistan are likely to conjugate. Here, the dimension of three crises, namely; Iraq, Qatar-Saudi Arabia and Nagorno-Karabakh are very significant.
Towards “Grand Reckoning” in Syria
The primary crisis is indubitably Syria. Whoever draws in the horns is compelled to lose while intransigent is an inevitable World War. All parties are aware of this situation but showcase venture, since they stipulate the opposite as a defeat and whoever loses out will deal with a big blow in the last Grand Game. Moreover, beginning with the Middle-East, the political map of the world will surrogate while the centre of power shifts.
Thus, despite the whole ball of wax, the Turkish-Iranian-Russian triplet are resolute in spoiling the game for the US. The potential military intervention by the Turkish Armed Forces in Adlib and Afrin in defiance of the US is a significant indicator. The Turkish Armed Forces which incurred into Al-Bab following the armed intrusion in Cerablus counter to the US, will not hesitate to launch operation “Euphrates Sword” if the US-PYD/YPG continue their current stance.
The conditions for such operation are pretty in place. Turkey’s breakthrough will not only be based on its security but withal for Syrian-based regional aegis. Therefore, this intervention shouldn’t be perceived as an operation carried out by Turkey in the name of its interests and perpetuity.
In this context, it is worth to carefully evaluate the recent statements by Iran and Russia on the territorial integrity of Syria and of Russian President Vladimir Putin’s; “The civil war in Syria has virtually ended”. With this remark, Putin sends a message that he will not allow a fait accompli and schism in Syria after the defeat of ISIS/DAESH.
Although it seems that this turn of phrase is in the vicinity of PYD/YPG, the obvious addressee is the United States. As a matter of fact, trailing the statement, the Syrian Armed forces targeted PYD/YPG locations while the US downed a Syrian warplane and in another case an Iranian UAV. It is also instructing for mortar-rockets between Turkish-Syrian border while equipping terrorist organisations in the region, especially PYD/YPG with sophisticated weapons.
The proclamation that this accoutre will endure after decimating ISIS/DAESH and the presence of anti-tank and anti-aircraft systems among the weapons supplied, clearly depicts the kind of war that the US is laying the groundwork for, posterior to post-Raqqa operation. With concurrent enunciation of “Kurdish State”, the US desiderates to draw the region into a pit of fire. This is the gauntlet of the United States.
In brief, everyone is playing the bluff and coward snowdrift-game. The answers regarding how will all this culminate and who will be the losers and winner such derision will be elaborated upon in the next analysis.