In my “The “De Facto” Alliance and its Rise to the Occasion” titled editorial, I concluded my discourse with the subsequent lines; “In brief, everyone is playing the bluff and coward snowdrift-game. The answers regarding how will all this culminate and who will be the losers and winner of such derision will be elaborated upon in the next analysis.” Today I will try to unriddle the coward chicken and its vociferations.
To begin with, I would like touch upon an “allegation” vindicating in the press. If the US intervenes with the operation of pacifying Afrin by Turkish Armed Forces, Russia will target any object in the air. It can be interpreted as Russia providing the necessary air support for the operation.
However, the parties are yet to acknowledge this initiative to the US. For instance, Russia will do it through notice of “unpronounced war”, “declared praxis”. In fact, based on earlier reports, “Russia has already announced missile drills in the region and urged the US not to approach any target within 200km of the test zone.
On the other hand, Turkish Armed Forces are targeting YPG positions in Tel Rifat and the territory north of Reyhanlı and between Kırıkhan and Hassa with howitzers. Likewise, Russia is taking the necessary steps, just in case it becomes required and has already dispatched a mechanised-motorised division consisting of 160 soldiers spearheaded by a lieutenant to the north of Tel Rifat.
In the meantime, President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan who conducted telephone conversations with US President Donald Trump and his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin will regale Russian Defence Minister, Sergey Shoygun more or less at the time of writing this article. By the way, two days before this visit, Trump’s special adviser on fighting ISIS, Brett McGurk sojourned Ankara. Shoygun’s arrival is also a response to McGurk’s quest. The credentials of Shoygun, which carry a huge message leave no room to say much.
A “Win-Win Alliance” Against the Greater Middle East Initiative
The moral of these developments is that; Turkey will carry out a ground offensive and sweep away “the new ally of the US” aka YPG; while Russia on the other hand, will bestow its air defence system to secure ground and air targets from an intervention during the operation. Thus “two allies”, Turkey and USA will not confront each other.
What a climatic situation! Turkey, which inaugurated its alliance with the United States during the outset of the Cold-War for the sake of security and perpetuity concerns is now under threat from the US sequent to the post-Cold-War era. And in a period of the rush toward a Third World War, an American threat felt by both states has led to a profound alliance between them.
Concrete steps for this allied relation; historical practices and experiences set aside; kicked off before 27th of June 2016. Herein, 16 November 2001 dated “Action Plan for Cooperation in Eurasia Between Republic of Turkey and Russian Federation: From Bilateral Cooperation to Multidimensional Partnership” which I’ve referred to numerous times is pivotal.
The Syrian-Iraq centred operation of Turkey & Russia on June 27th, and the subsequent undertaking instituted in Cerablus and extended to Al-Bab is the beginning of Afrin-Adlib operation too. In other words, the cooperation that seems to have been renewed between Turkey and Russia was successfully correlated in Cerablus last year. It’s time for Afrin-Adlib
Therefore, participation in the well-established Turkish-Russian alliance points to a “win-win coalition” in which beyond conjunctural turn of events, both sides will be poles in a newly established world order against a fundamental problem/threat. This procreates a central concern for the US and some other factions.
A Lot of Water Under the Bridge
The US should understand that neither Turkey nor the United States is of the same anymore. Explicitly speaking, we are confronted with soaring of Turkey and a decline US.
New Turkey, is cognizant of this, per contra to remnants of Old Turkey, who still insist in embracing this state for the sake of their complex and unique relations. As the gauntlet has been drawn, they can be obstinate as much as they wish. Soon they are ought to perceive and understand the situation better.
The US does not have the potentiality to induct what it put on a pedestal because:
- First and foremost, it will have to mislay Turkey. As a matter of fact, President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan gave an unequivocal message on the need to scrutinise NATO, through Shanghai Cooperation Council. Therefore, the US is not ready, at the moment to take the chance.
- Therewithal, this step, which will weaken the US, will marshal a division in the West. This conflict should be equivalent to the downfall of the United States.
- The United States might also fail to garner, the expected support of the West. On the contrary, it may face a reckoning. It is withal to look at the recent US-Germany/EU relations from this perspective.
- The US will not only enter a war with Turkey but also Russia, Iran & Pakistan.
- Therefore, the front-line will not only be Syria-Turkey. The United States will have to contend in many parts of the world, especially in the proximate vicinity of the Turkey.
To Whom “The Bullet” Points To?
Since the US/West understands the occasion, they are intimidating Turkey. Since all routes of coercion have lost meaning, they are conveying the message of resorting to any means, including an attempted assassination.
In this context, former Pentagon official, current neo-con writer of American Enterprise Institute (AEI) Michael Rubin, in his latest essay on Turkey stated that, the White House and Pentagon should deliberate upon “how we should manage the collapse of Turkey, rather than being friendly with them” and emphasizes upon the following points:
- “Does the path taken by Turkey lead to chaos, collapse and destruction? Unfortunately, the answer is “yes”.”
- “Turkey may not be able to survive in unity from the waft of President Erdoğan.”
- “Turkey is close to pandemonium.”
- “Turkey maybe a bullet away to drift into turmoil.”
It now time to ask, who is the victim of this bullet? Who is being targeted to generate chaos?
Finally, a small question/reminder: The First World War also commenced due to “a single bullet”. So, does the United States take into consideration, that such an event will not be left unreciprocated and that it would initiate the end of humankind?
At least Ankara would not let this go; everyone can be assured of this!