The latest developments in the context of the Qandil and the heavy blows of the PKK terrorist organization we see as part of Turkey’s fight against terrorism launched in 2015, can also be assessed as a result of its persistence clearly expressed since September 2016: “We will not allow the creation of “terror corridor” on the southern border of Turkey.”
In this context, the fact that the operations that have been carried out since 10 March have been passed to the second stage a few days ago, shows that a different strategy is applied step by step at the point of Qandil. The images of the Turkish Armed Forces (TSK) moving inwards from the Hakurk region can now be regarded as a concrete sign of the approach of the last move towards the heart of the terrorist organization.
TSK’s strategy of “Come, hit, stay, settle. Deploy in the strategic points” has a very remarkable place here. This strategy points out that Turkey is preparing a long-term struggle with regional states against a larger target over Qandil.
Some of the states that previously wanted to implement their different ambitions against Turkey, over these terrorist organizations, have begun to confront the boomerang effect of such terrorist organizations in question. Nevertheless, their adoption of new attitudes that are based on a multidimensional deep co-operation with Ankara undoubtedly has an important place here.
As you know, as regional states I mean the states as Greece-Greek Cypriot Administration of Southern Cyprus (GCSC) duo, Syria, Iraq, Iran and Israel. (By the way as some regional states I mean the Syria-Iraq-Iran trio.) Those who desire can include Armenia, which frankly provides all kinds of support, especially human resources and it wouldn’t be wrong at all. If we need to open this up a bit more …
“The rise” of the “Qandil model”…
As it is known, Qandil’s history extends almost to the foundation of the PKK terrorist organization. The terrorist organization, which was first deployed in the Bekaa Valley as an important base center in Lebanon, is known to be settled in Syria and Iraq in the following years and carried out the “hit-and-run” actions in the immediate vicinity of Turkey. The PKK’s settlement to the north of Iraq also dates back to the 1980s.
On the other hand, years the PKK terrorist organization, considered as “half” in Ankara’s “Two and a half combat strategy”, which constitutes an important trivet in the siege-threat policy against Turkey, began to gain the real power emerge in the 1990s.
More concretely, the beginning of the settlement in the region with the US First Gulf War in 1991 constitutes an important “turning point” in terms of the PKK terrorist organization.
The PKK terrorist organization is “promoting” from regional subcontracting to global subcontracting. Qandil is almost presented by the US as a “base” to the terrorist organization and is transformed into a model at the same time for operations carried out for the region in the following years.
Getting out of the the terrorist organization under the control of regional states to a large extent and getting into the US control is taking place by two important incidents: the 2003 occupation of Iraq and the Syrian Civil War. (In particular, Russia’s entering the war in Syria in 2015 should not be overlooked here.)
“Qandil Model” is being tried to be implemented in Syria in terms of the US. With direct-indirect support to PKK’s Syrian derivatives PYD-YPG/SDG and etc. embodiments provided under the name of the “Combating terrorism” one Qandil for each of them is trying to be established under the name of cantons at the Turkey’s Syrian border.
The collapse of the “Qandil model”…
The Russian-Assad duo, which had paved the way for PYD-YPG in 2012, before the US, began to perceive it as a threat while after a period of losing its influence on this organisation. When this perception is included Iran, the terrorist organization is beginning to collapse in the context of Syria and Iraq.
Turkey’s statement that it started the process in it’s borders in 2015, and to move it out of the boundaries in September 2016, more or less equivalent to the period of time when the process in the region started to spin up against the terrorist organization.
In particular, the normalisation process between Turkey and Russia, launched on 27 June, and a year later, “the 25 September referendum crisis”, the Turkish-Iranian bilateral stance reveals a decisive milestone here. Operation Afrin puts the point largely.
In fact, Afrin is not only a strategic sense of the terrorist organization, but also a beginning of the collapse of the psychological dimension. The two last addresses in terms of the PKK terrorist organization, which cannot be held in Afrin and had to leave Munbic, Qandil and Sinjar which comprise “fortress” are important for these reasons. If the terrorist group loses in the area, it will not only lose Qandil. The terrorist supporters behind it, and in this context, especially the presence of Iran in the context of PJAK in the peripheral countries, will also suffer.
The Birth of a New Alliance …
Iran is aware of this. Of course, the administration in Baghdad as well… Therefore, an alliance against terrorism has been established in the region. This alliance, which has got the result of what it wants against the September 25 Referendum, is likely to have a result in Qandil and Sincar after Afrin.
“Turkey-Syria-Iraq-Iran-Russia” quintet, emerges as the address antidote against terrorism. There is no doubt that this antidote will be used against the US in other regions and will ever come to the forefront. The messages given in the Astana Process are important in this respect.
The essence of the word, the US is unaware that it has fallen into its own trap. By trying to separate the area over terror, it faces a result that it does not want. The US is combining the geography over terror. Perhaps if it hadn’t done that, the region would have continued to struggle with each other as they did before.