Donald Trump is Ready to “decertify” Nuclear deal: Bluff or Reality?

Nuclear Agreement with Iran

Despite the agreement on the “nuclear deal”, Iran has not abandoned its missile program and even shown off the significant progress within its framework. During the last military parade, Tehran introduced new ballistic missiles with a capacity of up to 2 thousand kilometers. This demonstration was completely correlated with the political statement of the Iran’s President, Hasan Ruhani. The Iranian leader has stated that Tehran would do its best to boost its missile capabilities.

It is important to remember that UN sanctions were imposed against Iran because of its nuclear program, which has not been completely canceled yet. Although the fact that the Iranian missile program has persistently been discussed throughout the world, it was not part of the overall package of sanctions under the auspices of the UN.

For obvious reasons, this issue is being discussed by all regional players in the Middle East, but Iran’s missile program does not fall under any international restrictions. In this regard, international sanctions are imposed against uranium enrichment program, which had been frozen for 10 years.

The Iranians are well aware that their nuclear program has no prospects to be realized in the nearest future. That is why they are intensively engaged in the development of their missile technology. Moreover, this program serves as an excellent factor for foreign policy pressure when the United States or other Western partners of Iran are not eager to fulfill their obligations.

Obviously, today there are huge problems with the implementation of the treaty on the Iranian nuclear program by the parties, so the presentation of new missiles can contribute not only as a military but also as a diplomatic argument on pressure on Washington.

Such tactics, obviously, causes tough counter-rhetoric, and not only for Americans but for all other regional players. For instance, this situation is quite volatile for Israel and a number of the Middle East countries.

There is a tough confrontation between the Shiite Iran and the Sunni coalition in the Middle East. It has recently resulted to a foreign policy scandal when the Gulf countries broke off diplomatic relations with Tehran. Not to mention the conflicts in Syria and Yemen, where Iran and Saudi Arabia with their allies have been in direct military confrontation for several years.

All this, according to most of the political experts, is the subject of big politics. There are more rumors that the United States can withdraw from the nuclear agreement or try to change it unilaterally. The last remark of Donald Trump about the nuclear deal with Iran proves this.

Thus, there is a serious political game, where Iranian missiles act as an argument by which Teheran hints at the US that Washington’s refusal from a nuclear agreement will free up Iran to develop nuclear weapons.

Trump appealed to the fact that Iran violates the terms of the agreement. He accused the government of sponsoring terrorism and said that he would block Tehran all the ways to nuclear weapons.

According to US law, the president must confirm the agreement every 60 days. Trump has submitted the text to Congress and consulted with the allies to change or to improve it. At the same time, Secretary of State Rex Tillerson did not rule out the possibility of a new nuclear deal with Iran.

Now Congress has several months to find the way to improve this agreement. The main comments on the agreement-concerned Iran’s actions in the region, in particular with regard to neighbors such as Syria. They also related to Iran’s missile tests and Iranian support of radical movements. Therefore, Congress may pass certain laws and impose fines on Iran.

Reaction of Iran and World

Despite accusations from the US, international observers of the IAEA assure that Iran faithfully fulfills all the terms of the treaty. According to Yukiya Amano, general director of the organization, the country’s nuclear activities are under strict control.

In turn, Iran stated that it would continue to fulfill the terms of the multinational nuclear deal, despite US pressure. President Ruhani said that he “feels insulted because of false accusations.” “The Iranian nation will never bow to any foreign pressure,” Ruhani said.

Key parts of the agreement, in particular, Teresa May and Emmanuel Macron are concerned about Trump’s statement and urged the US president not to withdraw from the treaty. German Foreign Minister Sigmar Gabriel even threatened the United States with a significant deterioration in relations. “We must tell the Americans that their behavior in the Iranian issue will lead us, the Europeans, to a common position along with Russia and China – against the United States.”

Trump takes many decisions that Europeans do not like such as decisions on climate change or NATO financing. The nuclear deal with Iran will be another considered issue. However, most likely, this will not have a significant impact on the relationship. President Trump underlined that he would adhere to the most beneficial strategy for the US.

Europe consists of different countries; they all react in different ways. There are pro-American states, for example, Poland. They welcome such a decision. However, Germany shows discontent because the United States neglects those institutions and achievements, in which the Germans invested a lot of effort. Therefore, Europe most probably will split on this issue, but there are already plenty disagreements.

Circumstances

The expert opinions about the possible consequences of the US administration’s actions are different. Some argue that by such statements, Trump pushes the world toward a new nuclear conflict, while others argue that this will mainly be political consequences for relations between the member countries of the agreement. Which, in turn, can affect the distribution of leverage in the world and put global stability at risk.

It is possible that withdrawal from the international agreement on Iran’s nuclear program will lead to the isolation of the United States. As there are six participants in the deal with Iran together with the United States, Russia, China, Germany, Britain and France, the withdrawal of the United States from the agreement will lead to the isolation of Washington, but not Tehran.

In addition, Iran’s foreign policy vector may change, making its power more loyal to Russia or China. These countries, in opposition to the United States, are in favor of maintaining a nuclear agreement.

Iran has been pursuing a nuclear arsenal for long, but the World still need to worry about North Korea. Trump’s statements on nuclear war relate only to this country. Conflict is also possible between the US and Russia because the US protects Ukraine and Georgia. It can also happen between India and Pakistan, or between Iran and Israel. All these options are possible, but the Korean, not Iranian scenario may cause the main concern.