During the Cold War, a part of the war between the Union of Soviet Socialist Republics (USSR) and the United States (USA) took place in Afghanistan. As a result of the USSR’s invasion of Afghanistan and then the USA’s arming of the mujahideen, conflicts in the region increased. This process caused the Moscow administration to experience a great defeat.
After the end of the Cold War, the perception of the enemy of the USA shifted from communism ideology to global terrorism, and the Washington administration carried out military operations against Muslim countries for this reason. The main purpose of these interventions was that the USA, which was at the peak of its power, wanted to prevent the emergence of different power centers as alternatives.
Following the aforementioned goal, the Washington administration intervened in Afghanistan to surround China and Russia geopolitically and to control the energy corridors. Subsequently, it invaded Iraq to control the supply of energy importing countries and to maintain the petro-dollar system.
The Afghanistan War, which the USA started in 2001 on the grounds of terrorism, entered a new phase in 2021. Because the discussions about withdrawing from Afghanistan, which came to the agenda with the period of Barack Obama, gained a concrete dimension in the current period. Within the framework of the Doha Agreement signed between the USA and the Taliban on February 29, 2020, and the withdrawal calendar announced by the USA, the war in question is expected to end on September 11, 2021. In the latest research conducted by Brown University, it has been claimed that the USA spent a total of 2,261 trillion dollars in Afghanistan between 2001-2021 and the total number of people who lost their lives in this war was between 171 and 174 thousand.[1] In other words, for the USA, this war is no longer sustainable.
Although the USA’s intervention in Afghanistan has the desire to surround China and Russia in a geopolitical sense, contrary to popular belief, this intervention has led both states to gain power. In particular, they had the opportunity to suppress separatist, ethnic and religious movements in their own countries. In addition, these two powers did not experience the destabilization process of the region in their lands at a significant level due to the terrorist groups in the region attacking the US troops, which are seen as an occupying power, instead of their own countries.
Despite this, it is possible to predict that the conflicts in the region will increase after the US withdrawal from Afghanistan. Moreover, it is difficult to predict the targets of terrorist groups. The only clear thing is that the conflicts and terrorist attacks to be experienced in the region will affect the USA less and the countries of the region more. One of the closest candidates to fill the power gap in the region after the withdrawal of American soldiers is China.
As a result of the reforms initiated in the 1980s, China became the world’s second largest economic power in 2010.[2] Xi Jinping, who became the President of China in 2012, used this economic capacity to operate political, cultural, and commercial activities in many parts of the world. The Belt-Road Project, announced by Xi in 2013, draws attention as the most important example of the changing paradigm. Because the “Hide Intention” strategy that Beijing has implemented for years has left its place to a more active foreign policy. For this reason, the steps that are taken and will be taken by China, as well as the USA, in regional and global problems are closely followed.
It is unthinkable for China, which is active in many regions from the Arctic Region to Latin America; from the Middle East to Europe, to remain a spectator to the developments in Afghanistan. Because Afghanistan is located in important geography both in terms of location and natural resources. For example, according to the records of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP), Deng Xiaoping said the following about Afghanistan in November 1982:[3]
“The problems in Afghanistan are of global strategic importance. China and Afghanistan have a common border. Therefore, Afghanistan poses a threat that could surround China [geographically].”
China’s border with Afghanistan is the shortest of this country’s borders with 14 of its neighbors. However, this 90-kilometer border (Wakhan Corridor), which is difficult to cross due to terrain conditions, may be the first region where a possible wave of radicalization from Afghanistan will be reflected. The Taliban, which controlled about three-quarters of Afghanistan after the withdrawal of the USA, reached the mountainous border with China by dominating the Badakhshan Province.[4]
Although Beijing considers the US intervention in Afghanistan as an operation in its backyard, it has also benefited from the security provided by the US to prevent the strengthening and spread of radical groups that may turn to China. However, it is unclear whether this security environment will continue after the US withdrawal.
For all these reasons, China is looking for ways to prevent the instability environment and terrorist threat that may spread to its territory through Afghanistan. However, as it is known, all actors that have intervened militarily in Afghanistan throughout history have failed. This has helped Afghanistan gain a reputation as the “graveyard of empires”. Currently, China is reluctant to engage in any military intervention in Afghanistan. The Beijing administration wishes to improve the economy and prosperity of the region by developing trade relations with Afghanistan and initiating infrastructure projects. In this way, while increasing its influence in the mentioned country; the Beijing administration thinks that it will not take the risks of a military operation.
Beijing, which wants to make a similar China-Pakistan Economic Corridor with Afghanistan, or at least extends this corridor to the country in question, will thus secure its interests, increase employment through various projects and ensure the security of the Afghan leg of the east-west crossing initiatives. Therefore, the stability of Afghanistan in the eyes of China is the main key to the success of energy and transportation infrastructure projects in the economic regions of South and Central Asia. For this reason, Chinese officials made important statements showing their willingness to extend the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor to Afghanistan within the scope of the Belt-Road Project.[5]
In his statements coinciding with the same dates, Taliban Spokesperson Süheyl Şahin’s stating that the Taliban would welcome China’s investments in Afghanistan[6] suggests that there may be a significant rapprochement between China and the Taliban in this area. Undoubtedly, Beijing plans to invest in Afghanistan in many sectors, especially in underground resources and hydro-energy potential.
On the other hand, it remains unclear whether the projects and investments that China will initiate will be the target of terrorist groups. Considering the establishment and direction of the terrorist organization, propaganda, and espionage activities carried out by foreign powers in Afghanistan geography, it can be predicted that the instability that will occur will negatively affect every actor in the geography. Because the attacks on Chinese engineers and consular employees by separatist groups in the Waziristan, Balochistan, and Kashgar regions in the past remain in memories. Similarly, the attack on a bus carrying more than 30 Chinese workers working at a hydroelectric power plant site in Pakistan’s Kohistan region in June 2021 was seen as a deliberate act by the Beijing administration, and Pakistani authorities were called to ensure the safety of Chinese workers.[7] It is also possible for such actions to take place in Afghanistan. This possibility will be one of the factors that complicate China’s Afghanistan policy.
Another area which China wants to succeed in Afghanistan is ideological dominance. Beijing wants to show that its ideology and policies can bring stability to even the most challenging geographies of the world by developing Afghanistan economically and making it stable, against Western states, especially the USA, which have been unsuccessful in Afghanistan for years and have further increased instability.
While the Indo-Pacific geography is rising in the current geopolitical balances; The Atlantic region is in decline. For this reason, China, an Asian power, seeks to prevent the US from having a say in the aforementioned region and to establish an order in which Beijing will be the main actor. Xi expressed this strategy at the Conference on Cooperation and Confidence-Building Measures in Asia, which he attended at the beginning of 2014, with the words “Asia’s problems should be solved by Asians in the last degree and the security of Asia should be ensured by Asians.”.[8] Undoubtedly, if the Beijing administration can present the success it wants to achieve in Afghanistan as the superiority of the East or Asia over the West, it can take the US-China status war in the international system to a different dimension.
[1] “US Costs to Date for the War in Afghanistan”, Watson Institute, https://watson.brown.edu/costsofwar/figures/2021/human-and-budgetary-costs-date-us-war-afghanistan-2001-2021, (Date of Accession: 28.07.2021).
[2] “China Overtakes Japan as World’s Second-Biggest Economy”, BBC News, https://www.bbc.com/news/business-12427321, (Date of Accession: 28.07.2021).
[3] Kinling Lo, “What is China’s Relationship with Afghanistan, and how Will It Change Once The US is Gone?”, South China Morning Post, https://www.scmp.com/news/china/diplomacy/article/3140966/what-chinas-relationship-afghanistan-and-how-will-it-change, (Date of Accession: 28.07.2021).
[4] Yaroslav Trofimov-Chao Dengin, “Afghanistan’s Taliban, Now on China’s Border, Seek to Reassure Beijing”, The Wall Street Journal, https://www.wsj.com/articles/afghanistans-taliban-now-on-chinas-border-seek-to-reassure-beijing-11625750130, (Date of Accession: 28.07.2021).
[5] Polina Tikhonova, “China Prepares to Move into Afghanistan with $62 Billion “Belt and Road” Initiative as American Troops Leave”, Insider Paper, https://insiderpaper.com/china-belt-and-road-afghanistan-us-forces-leave/, (Date of Accession: 28.07.2021).
[6] Riyaz ul Khaliq, “Taliban Welcome “Friendly” China’s Investments in Afghanistan”, Anadolu Ajansı, https://www.aa.com.tr/en/asia-pacific/taliban-welcome-friendly-china-s-investments-in-afghanistan/2302492, (Date of Accession: 28.07.2021).
[7] “Chinese Engineers Killed in Pakistan Bus Blast”, BBC News, https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-57837072, (Date of Accession: 28.07.2021).
[8] “China President Speaks Out on Security Ties in Asia”, BBC News, https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-china-27498266, (Date of Accession: 28.07.2021).
