Bulgaria has been going through a politically chaotic period for the past four years. Despite five elections being held during this time, a government has not been formed. The rise of new parties has led to a loss of votes for the established ones. This situation has caused significant changes in Bulgarian politics. However, this major change has also brought about uncertainty.
If we look at Bulgaria’s political structure, we see that while there are established parties, many new movements and formations have also become influential in Bulgaria’s political life. When the socialist regime collapsed in 1990 and Bulgaria transitioned to liberal democracy, the reformists within the Communist Party formed the Bulgarian Socialist Party (BSP). Due to its longstanding ties with the Communist Party and its long presence in politics, the BSP has held a significant place in Bulgaria’s political sphere. In this context, the party often plays a key role in coalitions.
Another important party is the Movement for Rights and Freedoms (DPS), which represents the Turkish minority in Bulgaria. Boyko Borisov, who was part of the National Movement Simeon II initiated by the former King of Bulgaria, founded the GERB party in 2006. This party is center-right and pro-European. GERB, BSP, and DPS, which were in power, suffered significant vote losses in the 2021 elections. The emergence of new political formations and movements caused the decline in the vote shares of these parties.
One of the biggest factors in the loss of votes for traditional parties is the growing dissatisfaction among the Bulgarian people. In July 2020, protests took place in Bulgaria against the ruling GERB party. The primary reason for these protests was government corruption. The protests, which demanded the resignation of then-Prime Minister Boyko Borisov, marked the beginning of the political instability that has continued in Bulgaria for the past four years.
Bulgaria has the lowest worker wages among EU countries. Additionally, the improper use of EU funds and the lack of necessary support for the people during the pandemic have further worsened an already poor socio-economic situation. Therefore, the public has chosen to abandon traditional political parties in favor of parties with populist rhetoric. One of these new formations is the There Is Such a People (ITN) party, a populist movement initiated by a showman named Slavi Trifanov.
In the 2021 general elections, ITN surpassed BSP to become the main opposition party. The decline in vote shares for a long-established party like BSP indicates that public expectations have changed. However, no party was able to secure enough votes to form a government on its own following the elections held on April 4, 2021. Boyko Borisov’s GERB party and its coalition partner, the Union of Democratic Forces (SDS), lost the majority, securing only 75 seats out of the 230-seat parliament.
The “parties of change” won a total of 91 seats, with 51 of those seats going to ITN. BSP, on the other hand, recorded its worst result in history, securing only 45 seats. Voter turnout dropped by 3.5% compared to the previous elections, falling to 49.5%.[1] As the election results indicate, citizens have lost hope in mainstream parties and are leaning towards change. However, the decrease in voter turnout, falling below 50%, is a strong indication that voters believe democracy will not solve the current issues. The uncertainties in the populist parties’ programs and the inability of any party to offer solutions to the chronic problems have further complicated the crisis in Bulgaria.
Since a government could not be formed, new elections were held in July 2021. This time, the wind of change blew even stronger, and the parties of change increased their seats to 112. However, no party managed to reach the required 121 seats to form a government. GERB continued its downward trend, winning only 63 seats. Voter turnout this time was 40%. Although President Radev tasked ITN with forming a government, negotiations with BSP did not yield any results. Consequently, it was decided to hold parliamentary elections along with the presidential elections on November 14, 2021.[2]
In the elections held on November 14, 2021, ITN failed to replicate its success from the previous two elections, winning only 25 seats. ITN, which had been seen as a beacon of hope for change by the public, disappointed voters as indicated by the results of this election. The significant surprise of this election was the victory of the Continue the Change (DD) party, founded by former Economy Minister Kiril Petrov and former Finance Minister Asen Vasilev, which emerged as the leading party. The months-long political instability ended with Kiril Petrov’s formation of a government.[3] However, this stability was short-lived.
The coalition government formed under DD leadership with BSP, DP, and ITN soon faced internal disagreements. The primary reason for these disagreements was the Ukraine-Russia War. BSP opposed sending aid to Ukraine and threatened to withdraw from the government. Additionally, Bulgaria took a leading role in the EU’s sanctions against Russia. Ultimately, on June 22, 2023, a no-confidence motion brought down the government. Following this, elections were held again in October 2023 and April 2023, but political instability persisted. Bulgaria went to the polls again on June 9, 2024.
Political instability in Bulgaria has been ongoing for four years. This uncertainty affects the country in every aspect. Bulgaria, one of the poorest countries in the EU, still uses the Bulgarian lev as its currency. Since 2020, it has been a member of the European Exchange Rate Mechanism (ERM II), which helps countries adapt to the euro currency.[4] Bulgaria’s participation in the eurozone is crucial for its economy. This is because the risk of the local currency losing value is eliminated. Additionally, trade and investments with the EU will be facilitated. As a result, new job and investment opportunities will emerge in Bulgaria.
Bulgaria’s participation in the eurozone is crucial for its economy. This is because the risk of the local currency losing value is eliminated. Additionally, trade and investments with the EU will be facilitated. As a result, new job and investment opportunities will emerge in Bulgaria.
If the political crisis in Bulgaria, unresolved even after the elections on June 9, 2024, persists, the transition date to the eurozone may be postponed again. Political instability in Bulgaria not only affects the country domestically but also poses problems for its compatibility with the EU. Therefore, political actors need to compromise and form a stable government as soon as possible.
[1] “Bulgaria April 2020 Election Results”, Data IPU, https://data.ipu.org/parliament/BG/BG-LC01/election/BG-LC01-E20210404/, (Accessed on: 06.06.2024).
[2] “Bulgaria could be heading for third general election in a year”, Euronews, https://www.euronews.com/2021/08/10/bulgaria-could-be-heading-for-third-general-election-in-a-year, (Accessed on: 06.06.2024).
[3] Lukas Kotkamp, “Bulgarian Parliament backs Kiril Petkov as PM”, Politico, https://www.politico.eu/article/bulgaria-parliament-kiril-petkov-prime-minister/, (Accessed on: 06.06.2024).
[4] “Bulgaria eurozone accession could be delayed by months”, Newsroom, https://www.ekathimerini.com/economy/1236775/bulgarias-eurozone-accession-could-be-delayed-by-months/, (Accessed on: 07.06.2024).
