United States of America (USA) Secretary of State Antony Blinken will visit Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, and India between February 28 and March 3, 2023. Blinken, who will go to New Delhi on March 1, 2023, as part of the G20 Foreign Ministers meeting, will attend the Ministerial Meeting held in Astana within the framework of C5+1 and then go on to Tashkent. During his visit to Astana, Blinken will reaffirm their commitment to the independence, sovereignty, and territorial integrity of Central Asian countries and will discuss bilateral cooperation options with other regional countries. It will also hold meetings with official and civil society officials to confirm the strong partnership with India.[1] At this point, these visits and meetings are of critical significance due to the improvements in the region.
As it is known, various discussions have emerged that the influence of Russia in its immediate surroundings has been broken due to the war it wages in Ukraine. This situation encouraged various actors from Japan to India to turn to the region. In such an environment, it is not expected for the USA to stay away from the region. Furthermore, the multi-vector foreign policy followed by the states of the region allows for the strengthening of relations within the framework of mutual respect and gain. In this regard, it can be said that the USA is trying to make an impact in Central Asia with the said visit.
Central Asia has become one of the most talked about regions after the US withdrawal from Afghanistan. The administrative structure and multi-vector foreign policies of the regional states have been discussed over whether the USA can establish an alliance with a country from the region and obtain a military base. At this point, Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan have come to the fore. The economic capacity of Kazakhstan and the demographic and military capacity of Uzbekistan enable Washington to perceive both countries as the dominant actors in the region. As a matter of fact, considering that Astana and Tashkent are governments that complement each other and have established allied relations, it can be said that Blinken’s visit is of great importance.
On the other hand, Moscow has been trying to go south lately. In particular, Russia’s relations with Pakistan and India over energy and economy attract both states. The fact that Islamabad is turning to Moscow to solve its energy problem and New Delhi to provide cheaper energy worries Washington. It is seen that Russia, which would like to create a block and market in Asia, has made progress with the energy card. Therefore, it can be argued that the USA seeks to confirm a strong partnership. Because the Washington government does not want to experience a situation similar to Beijing’s rapprochement with Moscow in the period after 1990, in the case of New Delhi, with which it agreed during the Cold War period.
Some recent developments have brought the relations of Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan with India to the agenda. India is a growing power in Eurasia and Central Asian states would like to develop their relations with this country in a multidimensional framework. It is clear that the relations between the parties within the scope of political, economic, and security have developed in a multidimensional way and there is a common will regarding this.
While India was a South Asian state; Central Asia is a neighbor to the aforementioned geography. For this reason, there are common sensitivities between the parties over security and threat perception. For this reason, military exercises are held between the states both within the framework of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) and in the dimension of bilateral relations.
In addition, efforts are made to strengthen the economic and geopolitical ties between states. In particular, although the International North-South Transport Corridor (INSTC) is quite risky, it is thought that it will add dynamism to the relations between Central Asia and India. In this context, the political, economic, and military power of Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, and India is capable of affecting the dynamics in the region. The deepening and expansion of relations will increase this effect.
It can be said that the USA supports the rapprochement between the parties. However, the fact that Russia and Iran are among the main actors of INSTC worries the Washington government. Because the USA is uncomfortable with the possibility of both states overcoming the sanctions and creating influence through this corridor. At this point, it is given that Blinken’s visit, especially with India, will not allow the states that are subject to sanctions to breathe and open up space.
As a result, it is possible to evaluate Blinken’s visit within the framework of Russia’s regional policies, USA-Central Asia, Central Asia-India, and India-Russia relations. The Washington government supports established relations as long as they do not harm their own interests and do not give room for their regional rivals/enemies. However, the evolution of these relations into a different process will disturb the United States. As a matter of fact, just as Russia’s influence weakened with the Russia-Ukraine War, the fact that countries turned to Russian energy by taking into account their national interests weakened the influence of the USA. The Washington government, on the other hand, tries to maintain its power through both bilateral relations and structures such as the G20. Blinken’s visit can be read as the US still attaches importance to diplomatic methods. However, Washington also gives the message that it can turn to different tools if necessary. Because while visiting Blinken, India; the USA’s efforts to strengthen its relations with Pakistan in terms of security and economy contain a message for New Delhi.
[1] “US State Secy Antony Blinken to Visit Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, India from Feb 28-Mar 3”, The Economic Times, https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/india/us-state-secy-antony-blinken-to-visit-kazakhstan-uzbekistan-india-from-feb-28-mar-3/articleshow/98196063.cms, (Date of Accession: 20.02.2023).
