Moldova, which was former Ukraine territory, was named as Moldova Autonomous Soviet Socialist Republic. After the dissolution of the Soviet Union, it declared independence and was named as Moldova and recognized by the United Nations (UN).
As it is known that, after the Cold War, around 25 million Russian citizens have remained outside Russian borders.[1] After the dissolution of the Soviet Union, Moldova consisted Romanians, that remained in the region due to occupation of Romania, and Ukrains living in that geography since the country was former Ukrainian territory. This also made Moldova the most conflictual country among the other who gained independence in the post-Cold War period.
Moldova faced some problems since they do not have self management and sovereignty tradition, since there was not a leader, who is under the influence of Russia, since they struggled to transfer into free-trade economy, and discussions on separationist region.
After Moldova declared its independence, it was observed that Russia has influenced the domestic and foreign policy of the country through politics, economics, military and culture. Thereforei Moldova, is the least developed country among the European countries. In the region, Russia and Belarus could not realize a significant democratic evolution, while Ukraine and Moldova tried a lot. This transformation caused the countries to be in between Russia and the West, and Russia’s pressure on Ukraine and Moldova on the areas of politics, military, culture, historical, and economic has caused the development to slow down.
As it is remembered, it was bought by Viktor Yanukovych from the Former Ukrainian leader Olay, who could not resist the pressure of Moscow, who would enlarge their country with the economic and the future of Ukraine, the future of the European Union, the future of the Parliament, and it will be produced instead of creating Maidan Kiev on the streets of Europe. The decisions taken by Yanukovych, who wanted to suppress the protests, caused hundreds of Ukrainian citizens to be injured, dozens of people to die and public buildings to be occupied.
Pro-Russian protesters in Ukraine becomes more assertive in the Crimea; Unidentified gunmen; Simferopol and Sevastopol besieged airports, have occupied the Parliament building, and the pro-Russian Crimean MPs by dismissing the current government of the Russian Union Party leader Sergei Aksyonov was appointed as Chairman of the Crimea. Crimean Parliament referendum held in 2014, left the Ukraine took the decision to join Russia. In other words, Russia, the Crimea was annexed by resorting to military pressure elements in a manner contrary to international law. On the same day in Donetsk and the press and removal of internal turmoil pro-Russian person of public buildings in Luhansk, in this region and separatist referendum organized structures, declared their independence.
In 2019 the Ukrainian President Vladimir Zelens that laws have been enacted to reduce the influence of the oligarchs and gave weight to the pro-Western policies. The Russian President Vladimir Putin on February 21, 2022 on recent developments had signed a decree recognizing the Donetsk and Luhansk independence and also on February 24, 2022 “Special Operations” gave the name has launched the Ukraine War.
During the Ukrainian War, the map behind Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko during his address to the Security Council showed planned troop movements that clearly included Moldova as the only non-Ukrainian target. It is thought that the target on the territory of Moldova will be Transnistria.
Transnistria’s population; It consists of approximately 31.9% Moldovan, 30.4% Russian, 28.8% Ukrainian and 8.9% other identity groups.[2] There are 2 thousand Russian troops in the breakaway republic average. In addition, the pro-Russian paramilitary located in the area close to 10 thousand troops. In Moldova there are about 6 thousand civilian personnel, including military. Russia to launch attacks into the port of Odessa, will be held by the Russian military presence in Transnistria land invasion. This operation can lead to both living in the breakaway region of Moldova citizens of Ukraine and the Russian clashes between supporters of the war as refugees and people fleeing from the civil war there. Given the military presence in Moldova, it said that the absence of a power to prevent this confusion. In this sense, the fate of Moldova’s separatist Transnistria and Russia to possible military moves in depends on the attack on the southern Ukrainian city of Odessa.
Constitution of Moldova is located neutrality phrase. Therefore, it is not expected to be a NATO member country. Ukraine NATO during the war, has refused to send troops to defend Ukraine. This is thus not expected to send troops for a possible invasion of Moldova to recover. But the current war, has pushed Moldova to become EU members. But the EU’s criteria for democracy and democratization located on the “consolidation of democracy” is located. Transnistria’s Soviet-era service in the village were excluded Cobas about 20 thousand tons of Russian ammunition and Russian troops protecting it is a serious obstacle to the ongoing peace talks. This also makes it impossible for the EU to ensure that consolidation is not a realistic goal.
Putin’s article he wrote in 2021, “has a long history about the ethnic make claims on Russia’s territory of Ukraine” expressed.[3] In other words, it can be said that the only way to end the Ukraine-Russia War is to establish a new regime with the decision of the Ukrainian citizens, as it did in the Crimea. If the new regime to be established here becomes a pro-Russian puppet administration, it may spread to Moldova by creating a domino effect.
In conclusion, Moldova is a former USSR country. It is home to a Russian ethnic population and still weapons from the Cold War. Moreover, there are Russian soldiers in the country. Despite this, the Chisinau administration implements a policy that includes Westernization goals instead of pro-Russian policies. In fact, this was the main factor that led to the start of the Ukraine-Russia War. Because the basis of Russia’s near-periphery policy is to prevent the regional states from turning to the West. While creating this expansionist thought, anti-Westernism; The Moscow administration has clearly demonstrated in Georgia and Ukraine that it will not hesitate to resort to the option of war in a situation that threatens its security. Therefore, if there is no change in the policies of Kşinev; The Transnistria Question may also result in the invasion of Moldova. So actually Ukrainians, not just for Ukraine; He is also fighting for the future of Moldova.
[1] Heleniak Timothy, “Migration of the Russian Diaspora After the Breakup of the Soviet Union”, International Affairs, 57(2), 2004, s. 99-117.
[2] “People of Moldova Ethnic Groups”, Britannica, https://www.britannica.com/place/Moldova/People, (Date of Accession: 22.04.2022).
[3] Vilademir Putin, “On the Historical Unity of Russians and Ukrainians”, Official Internet Resources of the President of Russia, http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/66181, (Date of Accession: 22.04.2022).
