The news in the Russian media on June 6, 2023 stated that Russian President Vladimir Putin awarded the President of Bosnia and Herzegovina Republika Srpska Milorad Dodik with the Order of Alexander Nevski. In the news in question, it was stated that this award was given to the Serbian leader for his contribution to Russia-Bosnia-Herzegovina relations as the reason for this situation.[1] However, Dodik is not Bosnia and Herzegovina’s; He is the leader of the Serbian ethnicity. This is very important in terms of revealing that Russia has benefited from pan-Slavist arguments in its policy in Bosnia and Herzegovina as well as in the Balkans policy in general.
The Moscow administration has tended to increase its influence in the Balkans, especially after the Russia-Ukraine War that broke out on February 24, 2022. In this context, the Kremlin has approached its relations with Kosovo Serbs, Bosna Serbs and Serbia sensitively. Because Russia is giving the message that it can destabilize the Balkans through the Serbs.
The main reason for the situation in question is that the Russia-Ukraine War took place between Russia and the West at one point. Because the resistance of Ukraine depends on the aid provided by the Western states and the sanctions imposed on Russia. In this sense, the war targets the Kremlin’s claim to be a “great state” and tries to make Russia accept that it is a “middle-sized power” through the war of attrition in Ukraine. The Moscow administration, on the other hand, resists this at some point.
In such an environment, it is extremely important for Russia to give the message that a war it will lose in Ukraine will not be limited to the territory of the country in question. In other words, Moscow wants to send the message to the West that Russia’s defeat should evolve into a war that the whole world will lose.
In this context, Serbs make it easier for Russia to deliver this message. Because the actors supported by the relations established through pan-Slavism may cause many problems frozen in the geopolitically fragile structure of the Balkan geography to evolve into a hot conflict.
As a matter of fact, in the current situation, it is not possible to read the conflict in the north of Kosovo independent of the war in Ukraine. Of course, Kosovo or Bosnia and Herzegovina also has its own internal dynamics. Because there is a strong Serbian nationalism in the Balkans. Moreover, far-right currents are also in an upward trend. When the claim of the Belgrade administration to undertake the protection of all Serbs is included in this situation, it seems inevitable that the region will be dragged into chaos in the event of a gun explosion.
Although Serbia maintains relations with Russia following its goal of membership in the European Union (EU); Although it tries to carry out a balance policy that also preserves its western orientation, it is possible that Belgrade will also have to make a choice at some point. But the crux of the matter is the attitude of Serbian nationalists in Kosovo and Bosnia and Herzegovina. In the case of Bosnia and Herzegovina, Dodik draws attention with his pro-Russian stance. For this reason, the award of Dodik with an engagement by Putin is too important a development to be described as a coincidence.
As it is known, Bosnia and Herzegovina and Kosovo witnessed the interventions of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) during the bloody conflicts in the region and were positioned as pro-Western actors. This situation has brought about the importance of the Russian factor for the Serbs and Serbia, who continue their lives in the relevant countries. In this context, the award of Dodik by Putin, who defends the independence of the Bosnian Serbs and their attachment to Serbia if necessary, indicates that the instability of the region coincides with the imaginations of the Kremlin. As a matter of fact, Dodik’s exits, which sometimes amount to provocation and threaten the stability of Bosnia and Herzegovina, also contribute to Moscow’s ability to show its trump cards.
The situation in question is due to the fact that the Balkans are basically Southeast Europe. In other words, geopolitically, Russia is giving the message to EU member states that it may cause crises in the immediate vicinity of Europe. These crises have the potential to negatively affect the union in terms of migration and security. This is why, despite all disagreements, it is seen that Western actors call for common sense and carry out mediation processes both in Kosovo and Bosnia and Herzegovina. At the same time, the EU’s promotion of Serbia’s membership process stems from this.
As a result, Russia is giving the message that it can destabilize Europe by using its influence on the Serbs in the Balkans. Thus, Moscow reveals that it will not be the only loser of a war it will lose in Ukraine. After the tension in Kosovo, Putin’s engagement to Dodik contains signs of this. For this reason, the ethnically heterogeneous structure of the Balkans is likely to cause geopolitical vulnerabilities in parallel with the hardening of the global power struggle.
[1] “Putin dodijelio Dodiku Orden Aleksandra Nevskog”, Al Jazeera, https://balkans.aljazeera.net/news/balkan/2023/6/6/putin-dodijelio-dodiku-orden-aleksandra-nevskog, (Date of Accession: 08.06.2023).
