The AUKUS alliance considers contributing to Japan’s defense technology development. Ahead of Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida’s visit in April, he is leading negotiations with the United States, the UK and Australia. [1] U.S. officials told Nikkei Asia that the U.S. has started negotiations with Britain and Australia, to invite Japan to cooperate on defense technology under the AUKUS security partnership and they aim to make an announcement during Kishida’s visit to the white house next month. [2]
Japan will be the first country to join for working within the trilateral AUKUS framework since it was launched in September 2021. Basically, AUKUS consists of two pillars. The main intention of the first pillar is to assist Australia getting nuclear-powered submarines with conventional weapons. The intention of the second pillar focuses on developing advanced combat capabilities such as artificial intelligence, submarine unmanned aerial vehicles and hypersonic and electronic warfare technologies. Considering that, Japan, New Zealand, and Canada are expected to join the second pillar of AUKUS. [3]
According to U.S. officials, the reason why countries such as Japan and New Zealand were invited to participate in the second pillar of AUKUS is to create a wide network of alliances in the region. Australia is unwilling to integrate more members in the short term. Canberra is concerned that bringing more actors in complicates sharing technology and delay development. In consequence, the participation in AUKUS of Japan, New Zealand and Canada is delayed.
As a reminder, Tobias Ellwood, Chairman of the Defense Committee in the House of Commons in the United Kingdom called out for the expansion of AUKUS to include İndia and Japan in early 2023. [4] The accession of Japan, New Zealand, Canada and India to such a military alliance might radically change security of Asia Pacific and regional balance of power. Security activities of the West has increased in recent years in Asia-Pacific, new alliances have occurred, or their scope has expanded.
The Quadrilateral Security Dialogue (QUAD) which became official in 2017 between İndia, Japan, the United States of America (USA) and Australia, is now being discussed to transform into a broader collective defense organization or the integration with the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO). [5] It is known that NATO established for the past two years new partnerships with South Korea, Japan, Australia and New Zealand. Furthermore, the planned strategic dialogue with India is interpreted as NATO’s expansion towards the Asia-Pacific.
AUKUS is considered part of the US strategy to contain China. This platform, which envisages the UK and the USA to export nuclear submarine technologies to Australia, is referred to as a defense-security alliance, unlike QUAD. For a long time, it was discussed that Japan also can join the AUKUS. However, to date, both the USA and UK denied claims that Japan might participate in this cooperation. [6] Therefore it is conspicuous that at this point a comprehension has emerged for Japan, New Zealand and Canada to join AUKUS. This indicates that the “anti-China” alliances in the Asia-Pacific are getting stronger and wider.
Currently the UK, has not been willing to share nuclear submarine technology with most actors in the Asia-Pacific, such as Japan and İndia until recently. Moreover, India stays away from a direct participation in AUKUS, since the defense alliance targets China directly.
If the USA, which seeks to establish defense alliances in the Asia-Pacific as well as in Europe, successfully includes Japan, New Zealand and India in an “anti-China” regional association, for example AUKUS, this may naturally pave the way for the founding of NATO-like alliances in Asia. The establishment of “anti-China” alliances in the region is an essential strategy of the USA. However, the UK stands out as a useful actor in this strategy. While intensifying cooperation with the UK, New Zealand and India on the way to establish a regional defense alliance, it will not be hard for USA to convince Canada and Japan.
Anyway, the expansion of alliances in the Asia-Pacific is a part of the US strategy to contain China. It can be put forward that in the upcoming period, actors such as Japan, New Zealand, India, Canada, South Korea Australia, the Philippines, and France will continue to expand the circle of alliances in the region. It is obvious, that the Western World will accelerate its polarizing politics in the Asia-Pacific in the near future. The day Japan, New Zealand and Canada are going to join AUKUS officially, the “Asian NATO” will become one step closer.
[1] “AUKUS weighs Japan’s participation in defense tech development”, Nikkie, https://asia.nikkei.com/Politics/Defense/AUKUS-weighs-Japan-s-participation-in-defense-tech-development?s=09, (Date of Access: 04/03/2024).
[2] Ibid.
[3] “Australia wants Japan to collaborate with AUKUS on defense tech”, Japantimes, https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2024/02/18/japan/politics/australia-looks-to-japan-aukus/, (Date of Access: 04/03/2024).
[4] “UK’s House of Commons Defence Panel Calls for Expansion of AUKUS To Include India, Japan”, The Print, https://theprint.in/defence/uks-house-of-commons-defence-panel-calls-for-expansion-of-aukus-to-include-india-japan/1341460/, (Date of Access: 04/03/2024).
[5] “NAIPTO-Toward a Eurasian, Transoceanic Multilateral Collective Defense Alliance”, Hudson, https://www.hudson.org/foreign-policy/naipto-toward-a-eurasian-transoceanic-multilateral-collective-defense-alliance, (Date of Access: 04/03/2024).
[6] “US Denies Inviting Japan to Join Aukus Security Alliance”, SCMP, https://www.scmp.com/news/asia/east-asia/article/3174185/us-denies-inviting-japan-join-aukus-security-alliance, (Date of Access: 04/03/2024).
