On July 28, 2024, Venezuela witnessed the most tense and controversial presidential elections of the last decade. The opposition believed they had a good chance of toppling President Nicolás Maduro from office after 11 years. Maduro, who was running for a third term, warned that a defeat for the United Socialist Party of Venezuela (USPV) could lead to a “bloodbath.”[i] Some uncertainties emerged before and after the elections. This in turn affected the current situation. Accordingly, this article analyzes the potential effects of the elections on democratic processes in Venezuela and international relations.
Maduro Government declared the beginning of its third term with the announcement of the election results. However, allegations about the election results have taken the issue to a different dimension and the legitimacy of the elections has been questioned. Maduro Government, on the other hand, continues to take various steps to reduce doubts over the legitimacy of the election results. The results announced by the National Electoral Council, which gave Maduro a third term, were widely rejected by the opposition and characterized as rigged. The failure of the Electoral Council to publish the results of the vote count has increased pressure from the opposition, which claims that Maduro’s main rival, Edmundo González, won by a wide margin. The opposition and some international observers criticized this step. Maduro then appealed to the country’s highest court to verify the results. This move diverted attention away from the National Electoral Council, delayed the results of the count and met opposition demands for transparency.[ii]
Following the announcement of the election results in Venezuela, countries such as Russia, China, Cuba, Honduras and Bolivia quickly congratulated Nicolás Maduro on his victory. Russian President Vladimir Putin congratulated Maduro, emphasized that Russia-Venezuela relations are of a strategic partnership nature and that Maduro’s continued presidency will contribute to the development of these relations.
Chinese Foreign Ministry Spokesperson Lin Jian congratulated Maduro on his re-election and stated that the strategic partnership between the two countries would be enriched. Cuban President Miguel Díaz-Canel supported Maduro’s victory, describing it as the victory of the Bolivarian and Chavista people. President Xiomara Castro of Honduras congratulated Maduro and the Venezuelan people and stated that this victory reinforced Venezuela’s sovereignty. Bolivian President Luis Arce stated that they are closely following the electoral process in Venezuela and that the will of the people is respected, he also reiterated his desire to strengthen the friendship and cooperation between the two countries.[iii] These statements of support show that these countries welcomed Maduro’s re-election and that the strategic relations between the countries will continue. Moreover, the fact that these countries did not express doubts about the election results leads to speculation about the motivations behind their support.
Following the announcement of the election results in Venezuela, many countries and international organizations have expressed their disapproval of the results and called for transparency. The United States of America (USA), the United Kingdom, the European Union, Latin American countries such as Brazil, Chile and Colombia questioned the accuracy of the election results and demanded the release of detailed results. Brazil stated that the election results should be verified in an unbiased manner. Chilean President Gabriel Boric stated that the election results were hard to believe and called for international observers to assess the process. Peruvian Foreign Minister Javier Gonzales-Olaechea accused the Venezuelan government of rigging and declared that Peru would not accept this situation. Colombian Foreign Minister Luis Gilberto Murillo emphasized the need for a full vote count and an independent audit. Argentine President Javier Milei stated that they would not recognize another fraud and hoped that this time the armed forces would defend democracy and the will of the people.3
Argentine Foreign Minister Diana Mondino stated on platform X that Edmundo González was the legitimate winner. The United States rejected the election results, stating that opposition candidate Edmundo González had won. US Secretary of State Antony Blinken stated that in light of the polls and electoral data, González was the clear winner.[iv] These statements prompted the international community, who seriously concerned about the transparency of the election results, to call on the Venezuelan Government to provide a detailed explanation of the electoral data. The reactions also highlight concerns that Venezuela’s electoral process does not comply with international standards and point to potential crises that could affect regional political dynamics.
Venezuela’s recent elections revealed a sharp diplomatic divide in the international arena, leading to important political and economic consequences. This situation demonstrates the effects of electoral diplomacy. The rapid congratulations to Maduro by Russia, China, Cuba, Honduras and Bolivia reflected their efforts to strengthen their strategic partnership with Venezuela and their support for the current Venezuelan administration. Such behavior reinforces the geopolitical interests of Russia, China and some Latin American countries in the region, while increasing tensions with Western countries.
On the contrary, the United States, the European Union and many Latin American countries are questioning the legitimacy of the elections and recognizing the victory of the opposition candidate Edmundo González. This deepens Venezuela’s international isolation. The US rejection of the elections and its support for González signals that economic sanctions against Venezuela will continue and may even expand. This geopolitical polarization exacerbates Venezuela’s domestic economic crisis and creates serious uncertainties in the country’s external trade and financial relations. As a result, Venezuela’s international relations are shaped by the reciprocal moves of global powers, making the country’s economic and diplomatic future uncertain.
[i] “Venezuela election: Five things you need to know”, BBC, https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c720dr48g1po, (Accessed: 02.08.2024).
[ii] “Maduro manoeuvring to stay in power in Venezuela”, BBC, https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cyj439myd1jo, (Accessed: 02.08.2024).
[iii] “Stark split in world reactions to disputed Venezuela election”, Al Jazeera, https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2024/7/29/stark-split-in-world-reactions-to-disputed-venezuela-election, (Accessed: 02.08.2024).
[iv] “Overwhelming evidence Venezuela opposition won election – Blinken”, BBC, https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cd1d10453zno, (Accessed: 02.08.2024).
