North Korea launched multiple cruise missiles from its west coast into the Yellow Sea on January 30, 2024. This test was the third cruise missile test in January. According to the statement made by the South Korean Army; Pyongyang continues to boast about its expanding arsenal, aiming to breach its opponents’ defenses. The South Korean General Staff announced that they were analyzing the detected missile tests together with the United States (US) Army. Details such as the number of these missiles, their range and whether they were launched from land or sea are not yet known.[1]
The launch in question follows North Korea’s Pulhwasal-3-31 cruise missile tests on January 24, 2024 and January 28, 2024. North Korea states that this missile is designed to be fired from submarines. After the second launch, North Korean Leader Kim Jong Un reiterated his goal of building a naval force equipped with nuclear weapons. Tensions on the Korean Peninsula have risen to levels not seen in years as Kim has accelerated his weapons development at an unprecedented pace and issued nuclear threats against the United States, South Korea and Japan.[2]
The United States and its allies in the region have subsequently strengthened their combined military exercises. These exercises increasingly include U.S. strategic assets such as aircraft carriers, long-range bombers, and nuclear-powered submarines. Countries are strengthening their deterrence strategies. South Korea, in particular, is demanding stronger assurances that the United States will use its nuclear weapons quickly and decisively in response to a nuclear attack by Pyongyang.
These weapons tests by North Korea have increased tension on the Korean Peninsula. South Korea and the USA have accelerated their military exercises and strengthened their deterrence against these provocations. However, despite this, North Korea’s weapons programs continue to threaten regional stability. As a matter of fact, South Korea and Japan are the states that feel the threat most closely. The geopolitical positions of these countries have a significant impact on this. Because this conjuncture brings Seoul and Tokyo closer to the Washington line, and subsequently, a regional cooperation against North Korea is formed between the USA-Japan-South Korea. However, this axis does not deter Pyongyang, on the contrary, it provokes it even more.
North Korea tested a new solid-fuel medium-range missile that can target American bases in the Pacific on January 14, 2024. This is part of Pyongyang’s efforts to consolidate its nuclear status and negotiate a strong position against US-led sanctions.
There are elections in the USA and South Korea in 2024. The continuous increase in North Korea’s nuclear tests and its strong relations with Russia will also increase the pressure on Washington and Seoul, which will be busy with the elections. As a matter of fact, the elections in these two countries may create space for North Korea to increase its regional actions and put more pressure on Seoul and Washington. Because these two actors may not be able to respond quickly, consolidated and necessary to threats in the Asia-Pacific, especially North Korea, due to the election process.
In addition to the weapons tests, there are also growing concerns in South Korea about a direct North Korean provocation. Pyongyang fired hundreds of artillery shells over three days in early January in waters near the disputed western maritime border between the two countries. This caused South Korea to respond with a similar reaction. It is known that the maritime border in question is a controversial point between the two countries.
In a speech he made in parliament on January 15, 2024, Kim Jong Un said that the country had abandoned its long-standing goal of peaceful unification. Kim defined South Korea as an enemy country and in this context said that he gave a written instruction to change the North Korean Constitution. Then he stated that the North had no intention of avoiding war and would use its nuclear weapons if provoked.[3]
North Korea’s latest cruise missile tests are an important development that affects security dynamics in the region. These tests reflect North Korea’s efforts to increase its nuclear and conventional weapons capabilities. South Korea and the USA closely monitor such activities and evaluate how these developments may affect the balances in the region.
North Korean Leader Kim Jong Un’s goal of building a naval force equipped with nuclear weapons adds a new dimension to regional security dynamics. Sea-based nuclear capability raises concerns among security experts and strategists in the region. These could pose a new security threat to the United States, South Korea and Japan. As a matter of fact, North Korea’s unstoppable nuclear tests and security threats bring to mind the risk of a hot conflict. This could have important consequences for both regional and global stability, especially considering Pyongyang’s nuclear capacity.
North Korea’s weapons development also affects its economic and diplomatic relations. The international community has increased diplomatic pressure to direct North Korea to halt its nuclear program and ensure regional stability. But it is unclear how effective these efforts will be, especially given North Korea’s diplomatic isolation and economic difficulties.
It is conceivable that North Korea aims to reduce South Korea’s international role in efforts to resolve the nuclear impasse and force direct negotiations with Washington by consolidating its nuclear status. It can be said that Pyongyang wants to deal directly with Washington. On the other hand, it is also known that North Korea completely blocks diplomatic efforts. At this point, Washington’s failure to fully understand Pyongyang’s moves may play a restrictive role for the West in solving this problem.
On the other hand, it is a controversial issue how much support Washington will give to Seoul and Tokyo in the event of a possible hot conflict. Because there are currently conflicts in both Ukraine, Gaza and the Red Sea regions. At the same time, the United States has entered an election atmosphere in its domestic politics, and this situation may result in Washington not being able to allocate sufficient energy and resources to a possible hot conflict in the Asia-Pacific Region.
As a result, North Korea’s weapons tests continue to make the security situation in the region uncertain. At this point, it will be important how Western and regional actors respond. Both the elections in the United States and South Korea, as well as the situations in other conflict points around the world, will be of significant importance in terms of this threat and the response to this threat.
[1] “North Korea Fired Cruise Missiles in 3rd Launch of Such Weapons this Month, South Korea Says”, Associated Press News, https://apnews.com/article/north-korea-cruise-missile-launches-tensions-5083a866c0f62f3b3a20cb1339eeb8bf, (Date of Access: 30.01.2024).
[2] Ibıd.
[3] Ibıd.
