The United States (U.S.) Department of Defense (Pentagon), in an article it published, warned that “Ukraine’s defense would likely collapse without U.S. funding.[i]“ The article stated that unless additional funding requested by the Pentagon is approved, Ukraine will not be able to defend itself against Russian aggression. A military official from the Pentagon on the issue said, “If Ukraine fails because we cannot provide them with security assistance, the cost to Europe, the U.S., and the world will be higher than the cost of today’s security assistance.[ii]“ The military official also warned that without additional funding, the U.S. would fall short in supporting its own forces in Europe.
A report published by Germany-based Kiel Institute on the issue emphasized that if the U.S. runs out of its current funds, Europe would have to double its military support to Ukraine[iii]. Christoph Trebesch, Research Director at the Kiel Institute, commented, “This is a challenge, but it is merely a matter of political will. EU countries are among the richest in the world, and so far, they haven’t spent even one percent of their 2021 GDP to support Ukraine.[iv]“
The EU and its 27 member states have pledged €49.7 billion in military aid to Ukraine since the start of the war, but have so far only managed to provide or allocate €35.2 billion. The report notes that current military aid continues to be supplied by a few major donors such as Scandinavian countries, Germany, and the UK, while most of the previous donors have made very few new promises or none at all.
As the future of aid to Ukraine is questioned, developments on the ground have become increasingly complex. It is widely accepted in the West that the counteroffensive launched by the Ukrainian army in June 2023 has ended in failure. Intense debates have arisen between the UK, the US, and Ukraine over who is responsible for this failure. U.S. officials have complained that Ukrainian generals did not follow their advice.
The Ukrainians, in turn, have blamed the Americans, stating that they delivered too few weapons and did so too late[v]. According to Ukrainian generals, the Pentagon insisted on tactics that were not suitable for the terrain or the enemy, leading to heavy losses. Despite the generals’ realistic warnings, no change in strategy was made.
The failure of the counteroffensive raises another question: was it due to strategy, as the Americans claim, or due to equipment, as the Ukrainians argue? A third option could be that both factors played a role. In other words, the strategy was flawed, and the equipment was insufficient. Another significant factor is the performance of the Russian army.
All these elements have brought to light the tension between the UK and the US. To recall, in December 2023, then UK Foreign Secretary David Cameron visited Washington to urge the US to continue its military and financial support for Ukraine. During his visit to the US Congress, Cameron warned that blocking aid to Ukraine would be a “Christmas gift” for Putin[vi]. Calling for Western unity on Ukraine, Cameron stressed that Europe’s security is also America’s security and that cutting aid to Ukraine would benefit Russia and China the most[vii].
In summary, the UK does not want Ukraine to surrender to Russia. The US, on the other hand, has started to believe that the war in Ukraine is delaying its ability to focus on issues in the Asia-Pacific and its primary rival, China. In other words, the US may think that the prolongation of this war hampers its efforts to curb China’s rise in the background. National strategy documents published by the White House emphasize that China is the only global competitor. Therefore, the war in Ukraine serves no other purpose than to waste time for the US. Continuing the war with Russia keeps all attention focused on Europe’s security and contributes to China’s quiet rise in the Asia-Pacific.
The US believes it is running out of time to confront China. For this reason, it wants Europe to shift its focus from Ukraine to the so-called “China threat” in the Asia-Pacific as soon as possible. It is clear that a new strategy is needed between the US and the UK, particularly regarding the struggle in Ukraine. If the issue of Ukraine is not resolved, it will accelerate the internal collapse of the West.
[i] “Official Says Without U.S. Funding, Ukraine’s Defense Will Likely Collapse”, US Department of Defense, https://www.defense.gov/News/News-Stories/Article/Article/3679991/official-says-without-us-funding-ukraines-defense-will-likely-collapse/, (Date of Access: 16.08.2024).
[ii] Ibid.
[iii] “Europe Must Double Ukraine Aid If US Turns Off the Taps – Kiel Institute Report”, Euractiv, https://www.euractiv.com/section/europe-s-east/news/europe-must-double-ukraine-aid-if-us-turns-off-the-taps-kiel-institute-report/, (Date of Access: 16.08.2024).
[iv] Ibid.
[v] “Can Ukraine Still Win?”, New Yorker, https://www.newyorker.com/news/essay/can-ukraine-still-win, (Date of Access: 16.08.2024).
[vi] “Blocking Ukraine Aid Would Be ‘Christmas Present’ For Putin, UK’s David Cameron Warns US”, Politico, https://www.politico.eu/article/block-ukraine-aid-christmas-present-vladimir-putin-uk-david-cameron-warn-us/, (Date of Access: 08.09.2024).
[vii] Ibid.
