On the 17th March 2025, the top diplomats of North Korea and Russia discussed the holding of a high-level meeting on the development of bilateral relations. They also discussed the implementation of the comprehensive strategic partnership signed by Russian President Vladimir Putin and North Korean leader Kim Jong-un in 2024. As part of the partnership, Moscow and Pyongyang finalized a defense agreement aimed at providing mutual military assistance in the event of an attack on either side.[1]
Bilateral relations between Russia and North Korea have developed more at the strategic level, especially in the aftermath of the Ukraine crisis, with the global balance taking on a new dimension. Russia has been subjected to diplomatic and economic isolation in the face of Western sanctions and has sought to balance this with North Korea. Likewise, North Korea is deepening its cooperation with Russia in order to break international isolation and benefit from Russia’s military technologies. Another factor pushing the parties to bilateral cooperation is the desire to stand against the United States of America (USA) and other Western allies. Thus, the parties seek to gain strategic advantage through cooperation while protecting their interests around a common enemy strategy.
The rapprochement of these two countries has the effect of changing the security dynamics in the Asia-Pacific region. This is because bilateral cooperation will trigger other countries in the region to form alliances and military tensions. While these two countries acting more independently may pose a risk to China’s influence in the region, it may be in their interests to form indirect alliances against the West. Therefore, China will try to maintain a controlled balance through multilateral diplomacy or its economic cards. It will want to prevent this cooperation from getting out of control and weakening its own influence in a possible situation.
Senior diplomats from South Korea and Ukraine held a telephone conversation to discuss the repatriation of North Korean prisoners of war captured by Ukraine.[2] These dialogues are a reflection of South Korea’s regional security concerns. Besides, South Korea is trying to ensure security balances in the region by cooperating with Ukraine. Indeed, the increasing dialog between North Korea and Russia has a significant impact on the geopolitical balances in the Asia-Pacific region. Because this rapprochement causes the countries in the region, which are allied with the US and the West, to reevaluate their strategies and reshape the security balances in the region.
Russian President Vladimir Putin and North Korean leader Kim Jong Un last met during Putin’s visit to Pyongyang in June 2024. The rapidly developing post-2024 bilateral partnerships have brought various gains to both countries in terms of their security and economic interests. However, this situation has triggered the emergence of power and competition in the Asia-Pacific region, increased the importance of regional alliances and led to the consolidation of multipolarity.
Countries with close ties to the US, such as South Korea and Japan, will seek to increase their security ties with each other and with the US by focusing on defense spending. At this point, the US will have the opportunity to increase its presence in the Asia-Pacific by providing military assurance to its allies. The US and Western countries will even adopt a policy of isolation in the international arena by forming coalitions through international organizations such as the United Nations (UN) towards increasing Russia-North Korea relations, and will adopt an attitude of restricting the relations of the two countries with each other.
China, on the other hand, will have to reconsider its regional security and strategic goals in the face of a possible isolationist policy of the West and the US against Russia and North Korea. The West’s attitude towards Russia-North Korea cooperation is critical to China’s role in the global power struggle. Confronting the West, China will both try to protect its international sphere of influence and develop new strategies through international organizations.
To conclude, Russia and North Korea’s establishment and expansion of close ties is a strategic move as it constitutes solidarity against Western sanctions and a counterweight to the US and its allies in the Asia-Pacific region. For Russia, cooperation with North Korea provides a way out of isolation in the aftermath of the Ukraine Crisis, while for North Korea it offers various opportunities in terms of access to technology and energy resources. From China’s perspective, this cooperation will balance the US influence in the region and shift its focus from the China and Taiwan axis, which it has been concentrating on recently, to the Russia and North Korea axis. However, the strengthening of the alliance between these two countries could jeopardize China’s national security, so Beijing’s ability to maintain a balance is crucial for regional stability.
[1] “Senior diplomats of N. Korea, Russia discuss arranging high-level meeting: report”, Yonhap News Agency,https://en.yna.co.kr/view/AEN20250317009800320?section=nk/nk, (Date of Access: 18.03.2025).
[2] “Top diplomats of S. Korea, Ukraine discuss repatriation of N.K. POWs”, Yonhap News Agency,https://en.yna.co.kr/view/AEN20250317009651320?section=nk/nk, (Date of Access: 18.03.2025).
