The four Turkic republics of Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan and Turkmenistan, which gained their independence in Central Asia with the end of the Cold War and the dissolution of the Soviet Union, have been at the centre of the strategic moves of many states due to their geopolitical position as they entered the 20th century. Central Asia has acted as a single geopolitical and spiritual arena for centuries with its geographical richness, and has also attracted attention with its significant natural resources, rich human capacity and historical-cultural heritage.
Held on 9 August 2024, the Astana Leaders’ Summit hosted an important meeting where the heads of state in Central Asia came together for consultations. The official name of the meeting was ‘Sixth Consultative Meeting of Heads of State’.
President of the Republic of Kazakhstan Kassym Generous Tokayev welcomed the other heads of state participating in the summit, and President of Uzbekistan Shavkat Mirziyoyev was presented with the ‘Honoured Honorary Badge of the Central Asian Heads of State’.[1] The meeting covered a wide range of pressing issues of cooperation among the Central Asian states and focused on the impact of the current global crisis. It was also noted that the Middle East, the war in Palestine, conflicts in Iran-Israel relations and other external pressures have led to disruption of traditional trade routes, increased costs and inflationary challenges in the region.
The talks are based on the meetings held in Astana in 2018, when a joint integration process was launched under the ‘Treaty of Friendship, Good Neighbourliness and Cooperation for the Development of Central Asia in the 21st Century’. At the sixth session of this annual meeting, fundamental issues were identified and these issues were adopted as objectives.
In line with the documents adopted at the meeting, a joint declaration confirming the unity of Central Asia was adopted and the year ‘2040’ was emphasised as the main target in the declaration. In the period up to 2040, a development concept was defined within the framework of regional co-operation, and a diplomatic and co-operation roadmap based on the strengthening of intergovernmental relations was put forward for 2025-2027.
These developments in Central Asia can be seen as attempts to reduce Russian influence on the post-Soviet republics and to turn dependence from an unfavourable to a favourable situation. As it will be recalled, with the Russia-Ukraine War that started in 2022, Gazprom lost its important position in the European market to a significant extent and turned its direction to the east, mainly to Central Asia.[2]
The Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU), which Russia established to realise its geopolitical goals in response to its declining soft power in Eastern Europe and the South Caucasus, is seen as a platform where Russia imposes its geopolitical goals rather than economic integration. It is stated that this formation includes Russia, Armenia, Kazakhstan and Belarus.[3]
In this context, it can be said that Central Asia is trying to develop its geopolitical potential through self-determination initiatives within the framework of regional countries. The planned regional co-operation is expected to reduce Chinese influence in the region through the Modern Silk Road project and Russian influence through natural gas co-operation. Central Asia’s ‘2040’ goal also brings to mind the ‘2040 Vision’ of the Organisation of Turkic States (OST).
The CSTO’s ‘Vision 2040’ includes provisions aimed at further developing regional and global political solidarity, mutual cooperation and support. The Sixth Consultative Meeting of the Central Asian Heads of State held in Astana was attended by CIS member and observer countries such as Turkmenistan (observer member), Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan and Uzbekistan. It is expected that an important emphasis will be placed on the regional positions of these countries in Central Asia, as well as an indirect goal of ‘Central Asia-2040’ within the framework of the CIS, including other Turkic states, Turkey and Azerbaijan, in line with a common denominator.
While issues such as the improvement of transport infrastructures and the development of trade routes were discussed at the summit in Astana, the advancement of regional identity and cooperation also came to the fore as an important issue. The CSTO’s ‘Vision 2040’ goal is stated as ‘Aware of global and regional geopolitical realities, the Organisation will strive to function as a positive and increasingly capable grouping, ready to engage all partners willing to cooperate constructively to achieve regional and international peace, stability and prosperity’.
The Turkic World’s attempts to strengthen its position both regionally (Azerbaijan in the Caucasus, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan in Central Asia) and regionally (Azerbaijan in the Caucasus, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan in Central Asia) will ensure that it will be at the centre of the regional balance and the new political equation. For example, the initiative to deepen regional cooperation in Central Asia is reflected in the statistics for 2018-2024. The volume of trade between the countries of the region has increased since 2018 and doubled from approximately $5.7 billion to $11 billion by 2024.[4] At the same time, on 6-8 August 2024, meetings were held with the participation of the ministers of transport[5] and energy[6] of the countries of the region (the first in this context).
The Central Asia-centred Turkic World, which is at the centre of the transport and energy corridors, especially the Modern Silk Road Project, is becoming a strategic geography opening to Eastern Europe via the Caucasus and Anatolia, and this situation is seen as a development in favour of the Turkic republics.
Some Kazakhstan media outlets characterise the recent situation in Central Asia as the “Central Asian Renaissance”[7]. The word ‘renaissance’ etymologically means ‘returning to its roots’, ‘regaining its former vitality’ and ‘becoming better off, developing’. The revitalisation of the potential geopolitical power in Central Asia is considered as a renaissance in this context. When this situation is considered from the perspective of the Turkic World in general, not within the framework of Central Asia, but from the perspective of the CIS, it can be described as the ‘Renaissance of the Turkic World’ or the ‘Rebirth of the Turkic World’.
As a result, the ‘Central Asia-2040’ vision will emerge as a necessity rather than an option for both Russia and China to keep their economies alive in the context of natural gas and logistics corridors. Central Asia, which attracts attention with its political and geopolitical position, will not ignore cooperation with other regional and Turkic republics aiming for the same cultural and political interests. The concept of ‘Central Asian Renaissance/Rebirth’ in Kazakhstan’s press will take an important position in the changing world order with the acquisition of geopolitical and strategic power, and it is thought that it may bring along the concept of ‘Turkish World Renaissance/Rebirth’.
[1] “Participation in the sixth Consultative Meeting of Heads of State of Central Asia”, Consulate General of the Republic of Tajikistan in İstanbul, https://mfa.tj/tr/istanbul/view/15500/participation-in-the-sixth-consultative-meeting-of-heads-of-state-of-central-asia, (Access Date: 16.08.2024).
[2] Marcin Popławski ve Filip Rudnik, “Russian gas in Central Asia: a plan to deepen dependence”, OSW, https://www.osw.waw.pl/en/publikacje/analyses/2023-10-31/russian-gas-central-asia-a-plan-to-deepen-dependence, (Access Date: 16.08.2024).
[3] Mirshohid Aslanov ve Otabek Akromov “At Astana Leaders’ Summit, Uzbekistan’s President Highlights Ambitions to Deepen Regional Integration”, The Diplomat, https://thediplomat.com/2024/08/at-astana-leaders-summit-uzbekistans-president-highlights-ambitions-to-deepen-regional-integration/, (Access Date: 16.08.2024).
[4] “Renessans Tsentral’noy Azii: Na Puti k Ustoychivomu Razvitiyu i Protsvetaniyu”, Kazahstanskaya Pravda, https://kazpravda.kz/n/renessans-tsentralnoy-azii-na-puti-k-ustoychivomu-razvitiyu-i-protsvetaniyu/, (Access Date: 16.08.2024).
[5] “Memorandum o Sotrudnichestve i Astaninskoye Kommyunike: Sostoyalas’ Vtoraya Vstrecha Ministrov Transporta Stran Tsentral’noy Azii”, Ministerstvo Transporta Respubliki Kazakhstan, https://www.gov.kz/memleket/entities/transport/press/news/details/824410?lang=ru, (Access Date: 16.08.2024).
[6] “Astana Hosts 6th Consultative Meeting Of Central Asian Leaders”, Radio Free Europe – Radio Liberty, https://www.rferl.org/a/central-asian-leaders-consultative-meeting/33072952.html, (Access Date: 16.08.2024).
[7] “The Renaissance of Central Asia: Towards Sustainable Development and Prosperity”, The Astana Times, https://astanatimes.com/2024/08/the-renaissance-of-central-asia-towardssustainable-development-and-prosperity/, (Access Date: 16.08.2024).
