Donald Trump was elected as the 47th President of the United States of America in the elections held on November 5, 2024.While crucial breakdowns were happening in the relations between USA and European Union during the previous Trump era, the dynamics of transatlantic relations are wondered in the new era.
The Europe which has been under the US economic and military umbrella since the Second World War, has experienced danger of losing that protection and felt it up close drastic approach of Trump to Europe. In the first period, a 25% tariff was imposed on steel imports and a 10% tariff on aluminum. In contrast, EU starts impose tarif to new American products which its values up to 6 billion dollars, a trade war had been in question between two side[1]
Entering of Europe which has felt under a a threat in the escalating Russia-Ukraine war era to a new trade war with USA probability, is sufficient to disturb and to cornering the block. After the threat under which impose 25 percent to Canada and Mexico Trump has indicated that new tariff will be applied unless more American gas and oil is purchased by EU.[2] In response, Jovita Neliupsiene,EU Ambassador to the US, had stated that EU would launch a misilse strike in such a situation. Additionally, the Head of Commision Ursula Von Der Leyen has referred that transform Russian gas into American LNG is a cheaper alternative and this is fruitful to and profitable to the block and so it could be debatable over. Thus, changing ideas are in question within the block on the topic. However, it is seen precise that this policy of Trump will affect both EU and international economic order
The Bretton Woods Conference convened in 1944 during the Second World War had envisioned a post-war global economic system that would be liberal. In this direction, World Banki International Money Found and firstly Custom Tariff and Trade General Agreement and after that constituted various institutions with the name of World Trade Organization in the Tour of Uruguay in 1995 had constituted as the building blocks of the system. Bretton Woods regime had put a burden on the US. US had started to live drastically fluctuations in its economy with the effect and help of European Continent and and developing countries that US is over of them. Also, the biggest contributions to institutions in question had been made by US again. Then US President Richard Nixon brought several application that includes cancelling transforms dolar into golden application in order to relieve the situation in the internal economy in the period which named as Nixon Shock between 1971-1973 years but these could not be accomplished and finally he had to resign after Watergate Scandal.[3]
The Bretton Woods regime collapsed with the effect of OPEC Oil Crisis and economical situation in the world entered a period of stagnation. After this period, it is supported that developing countries to have a say in global economic system with such as Washington Agreement processes over the critics of economist Joseph Stiglitz . And also, it is aimed at establishment of liberal economic system as stated in Bretton Woods, as left out protective and merchantilist policies over time.
Government interventions in domestic economy in the post-war period and liberal order sought in foreign trade were reminiscent of a Keynesian system and the interventions in question were intented to be eliminated but this never happens. Despite ,The Doha Round which is the last tour of World Trade Organization get started in 2001 but it has not stil been concluded, is a major indicator of the growing anti-Americanism, first in the 1990, and then in the fact that this liberal economic system has never been fully implemented. Beyond this, the economic system that it has been a mercantilist structure more, is continuing as a liberal structure in question that limited with tarif and on the occasion of non-tariff barriers, the so-called new protectionism that emerged during the Tokyo Round from 1973 to 1979.
The fact that the trying to establishment of liberal economic system directly reveal from the relations between US and Europe, trade ralations between two sides have a profound impact on the global economic system that they are trying to buid at the moment. At this point, the fact that triggering to enter of the sides to a trade war who compose to the system which has been revealed by Donald Trump and it is considered as liberal as it is liberal, affects worse the international economic system efforts. This type mercantilist and extreme preventionist approaches are the obstacles in front of the providing the stability as a particular proportion in international economy and the approaches develops non-eligible trade practises. This approach which exacerbated the growing pressure in Europe in the midst of the Russian-Ukranian War creates a big disappointment for the Europe.
The fact that welfare of the continent depends on USA as a big proportion. This situation both damage blocks’s indepence and create an obstruction against to its self-sufficiency. In such an environment, the EU’s course is to find and alternative to the US. It could be considered that Asian energy sources are conveyed by the pipelines plans such as Lapis Lazuli over Bakü to EU countries.This scenery serves as a reminder that it is essential for the EU and the West to try to recover the battle for influence in the Caucasus, which it has largely lost to Russia. However, against Azerbaijan that will play a critical role in such a this scenery in the EU countries are stil busy with taking various decisions in it’s disputes with Armenia.
In addition, as Ursula von der Leyen pointed out, the purchase of US gas as a cheaper alternative to Russian gas can be seen as a way to turn Trump’s threats into an advantage.[4] At the end of the day, the EU is late in creating self-sufficiency and will therefore continue to be influenced by the U.S. In today’s economic system, protectionist policies are inevitable and this leads to the need for a country or bloc to be self-sufficient, thus, another mercantilist principle. In this situation, even if the liberal system is undermined, it is essential for the EU to create alternatives to it and, as mentioned above, to create its own advantage, especially by creating rational policies against Trump’s protectionist measures.
* Revision: Dr. Cenk TAMER, Received: 25.12.2024, 04.00, Submitted: 26.12.2024, 01.30.
[1] Stercevic, Seb. (2024), “Trump ramps up EU trade war threat unless bloc buys American oil and gas.”, POLITICO, https://www.politico.eu/article/us-donald-trump-threat-eu-tariffs-unless-buys-american-oil-gas/,
(Access Datei: 24.12.2024).
[2] Boak, Josh & Casert, Raf (2024), “Trump adds Europe to the list of US trade partners he’s threatening with tariffs.”, APnews, https://apnews.com/article/trump-europe-trade-tariffs-natural-gas-oil-08d762fdf17a0737aa6add3c9382c4bd, (Access Date: 25.12.2024).
[3] Garten, Jeffrey E. (2021), “Three Days at Camp David: How a Secret Meeting in 1971 Transformed the Global Economy.”, p. 70-73, (Access Date: 24.12.2024).
[4] Hodgson, Robert (2024), “Trump threatens trade tariffs unless Europe buys a lot more US oil and gas.”, euronews., https://www.euronews.com/business/2024/12/20/trump-threatens-trade-tariffs-unless-europe-buys-a-lot-more-us-oil-and-gas, (Access Date: 25.12.2024).
