The 2024 November presidential election in the United States of America (USA) is of critical importance not only for national politics but also for global balances and international relations. This election has gained a different dimension with the withdrawal of the current President Joe Biden and the possibility of his running mate Kamala Harris. This situation means that two different visions and policy approaches will face each other again: Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump.
While serving as vice president in the Biden administration, Kamala Harris focused on issues such as social justice, health reform and climate change. In her presidential campaign, she stated that she would continue Biden’s policies and would continue to strengthen cooperation with allies to maintain America’s leadership on the international stage. Harris’ foreign policy stance includes maintaining Biden’s diplomacy-first approach and further strengthening relations with international alliances such as the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation (NATO).
In a private speech before an event earlier this year, Isabel Schnabel, a member of the executive board of the European Central Bank, described Harris as “invisible” and predicted that she would never win. Schnabel said that the Democratic Party’s electoral process was “a failure”, adding that “from the beginning, they should have built an alternative candidate to Kamala Harris.”[i]
During Biden’s presidency, transatlantic relations between the EU and the US largely consolidated, especially after the Russia-Ukraine War. However, with the new developments, EU officials considered it healthier to determine their own policies rather than making efforts to establish contact with Harris.
The President of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen, held only one bilateral meeting with Harris. Nevertheless, European politicians remain favourable in public opinion. Belgian Foreign Minister Hadja Lahbib wished Harris all the best and emphasised that she is a strong woman. Roderich Kiesewetter, who sits on the Foreign Affairs Committee in Berlin, described Harris as a charismatic, intelligent and witty woman.[ii]
The critical question on the minds of many EU officials is not what kind of a leader Harris would be in the White House, but whether she has what it takes to defeat Trump. While praising President Biden, Greek Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis refrained from commenting on Harris’ possible candidacy and stated that they should prepare for all possibilities.
The candidature of Kamala Harris continues to be an important topic of discussion for politicians and officials in Europe. Her leadership style and diplomatic skills are crucial for the future of US-European relations. Harris’ performance in the presidential race will be a critical factor that will determine how Europe will shape its strategic relationship with the United States.
On the other hand, Donald Trump is known for his “America First” policy and adopts a more nationalist and isolationist approach. In his first presidential term, he drew attention with steps such as trade wars, immigration policies, and withdrawal from international agreements. If Trump is re-elected, it is foreseen that there may be renewed debates on international alliances such as NATO and trade agreements.
Donald Trump’s questioning of NATO’s defence commitments during his 2016 presidential campaign caused great concern in Europe. Trump’s “America First” policy has put the future of the transatlantic alliance into question. European countries have realised that US military support is not guaranteed and that Russia’s intervention in Ukraine has forced them to review their defence strategies.
Some of Trump’s former aides believe that he can do this if he wins a second term. Therefore, this thinking is not only Trump’s. US Senator J.D. Vance, a strong proponent of the “America First” vision, stated that “it is time for Europe to stand on its own two feet”.[iii] He thus proposed that Europe should increase its defence obligations and share more of the US military burden. Europe’s preparedness for these changes is critical for regional security. A potential second Trump presidency has led Europe to question its trust in the United States, necessitating a restructuring of NATO.
Optimists argue that a US withdrawal would undermine security, but that European countries might be prepared to act as a constructive, independent power in a multipolar world. More likely, however, is that a post-American Europe will struggle to cope with the threats it faces and may even eventually revert to the darker, more anarchic, more illiberal patterns of the past. French President Emmanuel Macron warned in late April 2024 that “Our Europe today is mortal. It could die”, he warned.[iv]
Kamala Harris’ presidential candidacy is a new source of uncertainty for Europe. While Harris seems to continue Biden’s strong support for NATO, Europe needs to learn more about her policies and leadership style.[v] This uncertainty has forced Europe to review its NATO and defense strategies.
The security environment and balance of power in Europe will change significantly with the disappearance of the security shield committed by the United States. This may lead states in the continent to prioritize their military and geopolitical interests again and to increase their power projections. In short, a post-American Europe may turn into an arena where democratic norms as well as economic and political stability will be tested. The role of the US will continue to be decisive in shaping Europe’s future security and political structure. Therefore, questioning Europe’s readiness to stand on its own feet is an important question not only for regional but also for global stability.
As a result, it is emphasized that Europe should increase its defense obligations and take more responsibility for strengthening its own security. European countries aim to strengthen their defense capacities by reducing dependence on US military leadership. These strategic changes are important in responding to the future security needs of both Europe and NATO.
[i] Suzanne Lynch & Ben Munster, “Invisible Kamala Harris struggles to win over Europe”, Politico, https://www.politico.eu/article/kamala-harris-europe-us-election-joe-biden-democratic-party/, (Date of Accessi: 30.07.2024).
[ii] Ibid.
[iii] Hal Brands, “Trump’s Return Would Transform Europe”, Foreign Policy, https://foreignpolicy.com/2024/06/26/europe-security-eu-nato-alliances-liberal-democracy-nationalism-trump-us-election/, (Date of Access: 30.07.2024).
[iv] Ibid.
[v] Danica Kırka, “With uncertainty across the Atlantic, Europe worries about its own security”, AP News, https://apnews.com/article/nato-trump-vance-europe-security-57952c260f8665046dc0928031061e92, (Date of Access: 31.07.2024).
