Donald Trump was re-elected as President of the United States (U.S.) following the election held on November 5, 2024. While the election primarily focused on domestic policy issues such as the American economy and border security, its outcomes bear significant implications on a global scale. Notably, the rivalry between the U.S. and China exerts a direct influence on the geopolitical and security dynamics of the Asia-Pacific region. The relations the U.S. has strengthened with its allies to counter China’s influence in the region play a crucial role in regional security.
From China’s perspective, it can be argued that the political party in power in the White House makes little substantive difference. This is largely because China recognizes that its strategic competition with the United States will persist irrespective of whether the Republican or Democratic Party holds power. Consequently, Beijing predicts that domestic political shifts in the United States are unlikely to produce long-term effects on Sino-American relations. Moreover, Donald Trump’s participation in three presidential elections has not only diminished his public appeal among the Chinese populace but has also provided the Chinese government with an opportunity to thoroughly analyze his policy approaches and leadership style. As a result, Chinese media demonstrated minimal interest in the U.S. elections, with significant coverage emerging only in the days leading up to election day. Indeed, Mao Ning, the spokesperson for the Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs, when asked during a press conference held in Beijing about how Trump’s return to the White House would affect U.S.-China relations, emphasized that “Our policy toward the United States remains consistent,” thereby underlining that this approach will continue.[1]
China’s primary challenge in dealing with Trump lies in the unpredictability of his behavior and the inconsistency of his policies. These factors have complicated efforts to establish stability in Sino-American relations and have created significant challenges in forecasting the long-term implications of his actions. Consequently, it is difficult to contend that China had a clearly articulated strategy in place to address Trump’s presidency upon his assumption of office. Furthermore, Trump’s approach to China has been marked by significant contradictions. On the one hand, he has openly praised President Xi Jinping, highlighting the “very strong relations” he claims to have fostered with him.[2] On the other hand, he has accused China of acting with “malicious intent.” This inconsistency creates ambiguity regarding Trump’s broader policy direction toward China.
Many of the policies that Beijing characterizes as a “containment” were initiated during the Trump administration and were expanded during the Biden administration. These policies include measures such as tariffs on Chinese imports, export controls on semiconductors, and the revitalization of the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue (QUAD). However, the most significant difference between the two leaders lies in the tactics employed in the implementation of these policies. The Biden administration, in its strategic competition with a rising China, has not only sought to strengthen bilateral cooperation with allies but has also prioritized reinforcing relationships among its allies. In this context, the administration has placed considerable emphasis on developing a coordinated and unified approach to its China policy.
Trump’s foreign policy and security strategies are characterized as isolationist, grounded in national interest, and framed within a realist perspective, largely due to his skeptical stance toward allies. With a pronounced mercantilist outlook, Trump is particularly noted for his acute focus on addressing trade deficits and implementing stringent measures aimed at cost reduction.[3] Moreover, Trump’s demands for increased financial contributions from North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) members, as well as Japan and South Korea, in exchange for U.S. military support, led to a significant distancing of these allies from his administration. Through such policies, Trump has targeted not only China but also U.S. allies with tariffs. Similarly, describing his relationship with Taiwan as a form of “purchasing insurance,” Trump requested financial contributions from Taiwan in exchange for security guarantees during the pre-election period.
Within this framework, Trump’s trade and security policies toward China similarly embody a hardline approach. While Trump has expressed his reluctance to engage in a trade war with China, he is expected to persist with a strategy of exerting pressure through the use of economic sanctions and tariffs.[4] During his election campaign, Trump pledged to impose tariffs of up to 60% on Chinese goods, a policy that could result in a 2.5-point reduction in China’s projected economic growth rate.[5] Trump has additionally stated that he would impose tariffs ranging from 150% to 200% should China intervene in Taiwan.[6] From a military perspective, although Trump may not desire to engage in a direct war, he could aim to allocate more resources to the Asia-Pacific region to limit China’s influence in the area and adopt a more assertive stance in critical regions such as the South China Sea and Taiwan.
In addition to his economic and military pressure policies, Trump’s perception of the relationship between China and Russia as a threat to global balances may bring the effort to decouple these two countries to the forefront of U.S. foreign policy priorities. Trump considers the China-Russia alliance as a threat to global stability and argues that Biden’s policies have fostered solidarity between these states. During his campaign, Trump criticized the Biden administration for fostering closer ties between Beijing and Moscow, stating, “Biden has brought Russia, China, Iran, North Korea, and other countries together; it’s disgraceful,” and pledged, “I will separate them.” Such rhetoric suggests that Trump may adopt a more proactive foreign policy strategy aimed at preventing coordinated actions between China and Russia.
On the other hand, Trump’s victory could also present certain strategic advantages for China. Trump’s foreign policy, which opposes globalization and multilateralism, could weaken the United States’ ties with its allies, thereby complicating their efforts to act jointly in balancing against China. This, in turn, could undermine U.S. efforts to curb China’s influence in the Asia-Pacific region. Furthermore, a second Trump administration that distances itself from international agreements and commitments could provide China with an opportunity to strengthen its relations with the Global South, Europe, and Northeast Asian countries.
During his election campaign, Trump claimed to possess the ability to bring an end to the Russia-Ukraine War within 24 hours and pledged to resolve the Israel-Palestine conflict in the Middle East.[7] In his pursuit of fulfilling the promise of being a “peaceful president,” Trump may aim to strengthen cooperation with China in these areas. It is worth recalling that Trump had previously sought China’s assistance in addressing North Korea’s nuclear issue, and in late 2016, China demonstrated its significant influence in regional matters by supporting United Nations (UN) sanctions on North Korea. Considering North Korea’s support for Russia in the Ukraine War, China’s support could play a critical role in U.S. efforts to re-engage North Korea in negotiation processes. Indeed, Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi has also emphasized China’s determination to play a constructive role in the Russia-Ukraine War.[8]
In conclusion, Trump’s re-election necessitates a recalibration of the balance in U.S.-China relations. For China, this new period presents both opportunities and challenges. Trump’s anti-globalization and isolationist foreign policy has the potential to weaken the United States’ alliances, which could, in turn, provide China with opportunities to strengthen its global and regional partnerships. However, Trump’s unpredictability and stringent economic policies may pose significant risks to China’s economic growth, potentially reigniting the trade war between the two countries. Trump’s efforts to position himself as a “peaceful president” could open avenues for limited cooperation with China in specific areas. Nevertheless, the United States’ inclination to intensify strategic competition is likely to continue unsettling the geopolitical balance in the Asia-Pacific region. Against this backdrop, Trump’s foreign policy may result in renewed tensions in U.S.-China relations. In the forthcoming period, both countries will need to assess opportunities for cooperation with a focus on their pragmatic interests.
[1] “China will work with US, government says, but more rivalry expected under Trump”, Reuters, https://www.reuters.com/world/china/taiwan-trade-china-braces-more-rivalry-close-us-presidential-race-ends-2024-11-05/ , (Date of Access: 08.11.2024).
[2] “Trump says China respects him because Xi knows he is ‘crazy’, BBC, https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c39l89j10e1o, (Date of Access: 08.11.2024).
[3] “Harris vs. Trump: If Asia Could Vote in the US Election”, The Diplomat, https://thediplomat.com/2024/10/harris-vs-trump-if-asia-could-vote-in-the-us-election/, (Date of Access: 08.11.2024).
[4] “Trump praises Xi, while raising prospect of higher tariffs on Chinese imports”, Politico, https://www.politico.com/news/2024/02/04/trump-xi-chinese-tariff-00139531 , (Date of Access: 08.11.2024).
[5] “China is bracing for fresh tensions with Trump over trade, tech, and Taiwan”, AP News, https://apnews.com/article/trump-china-tariffs-taiwan-foreign-policy-7351ce1069654f1c1aefb560b36dcc17 , (Date of Access: 08.11.2024).
[6] “Trump says he would impose tariffs on China if China went into Taiwan”, Reuters, https://www.reuters.com/world/trump-says-he-would-impose-tariffs-china-if-china-went-into-taiwan-2024-10-18/, (Date of Access: 08.11.2024).
[7] “What Trump’s win means for Ukraine, Middle East, and China”, BBC, https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c2dl0e4l7lzo , (Date of Access: 08.11.2024).
[8] “At UN, China warns against ‘expansion of the battlefield’ in Russia’s war with Ukraine”, PBS News, https://www.pbs.org/newshour/world/at-un-china-warns-against-expansion-of-the-battlefield-in-russias-war-with-ukraine , (Date of Access: 08.11.2024).