Published on August 1, 2024 in Foreign Affairs, the article titled “Does China prefer Harris or Trump?” discusses the possible changes in US-China relations after the presidential elections in November 2024.[i] Accordingly, most Chinese observers do not expect significant changes in Washington’s policy towards Beijing. This is because the American public opinion has mostly started to converge towards China and the Democrats, like the Republicans, have pursued a foreign policy in line with the expectations of the middle ground.
When Trump took office in 2017, he adopted a much more confrontational approach to relations with Beijing, increasingly characterizing it as a “revisionist power” in the international system. On the one hand, the Trump administration has adopted an isolationist and reciprocity-based paradigm, on the other hand, it has adopted a narrowed conception of interests such as America First in order to maintain America’s claim to global leadership and questioned the country’s role in the neoliberal order. Donald Trump has rejected globalized multilateralism and replaced it with cost-benefit-based bilateralism. Aiming to reduce the economic burden of globalization on American citizens, this paradigm has been skeptical of interaction with existing global regimes. This trend, which started with the Republican administration, continued in the post-2021 Biden administration, albeit in different tones, and the continuation of trade wars, especially with China, has been an indicator of this.
Economic burdens of globalization, rising public opposition to immigration, escalating crises in Europe and the Middle East, and confrontation with China have played an important role in the hardening of the post-Trump political climate in the US. The growing controversy in the American public opinion and the tense political environment were instrumental in the continuation of the confrontational policy with China. Ultimately, based on reports from the White House, the Pentagon and other security agencies, US decision-makers decided that China was the “greatest challenge” to American national interests in the coming decades. Therefore, it is unlikely that there will be a radical change in US policies towards China under Trump or Harris. Nevertheless, the Trump administration is likely to pursue a greater military engagement in the Asia-Pacific and to re-accelerate the trade war with China.[ii]
Republicans and Democrats agree that the US needs to increase its defense spending, especially the rapid modernization and expansion of the navy, in order to cope with China’s ever-growing military power and technological capabilities, especially in the navy. The goal is for the US to have the economic and military capacity to tackle crises in Europe and the Middle East, as well as in the Asia-Pacific, at the same time. Therefore, some units of the US military fleets spread around the world, including in the near seas, may be shifted towards the Asia-Pacific in the coming years to deter China. Trump’s security advisors have also called for concentrating these forces in the Pacific.[iii]
From the Chinese perspective, it can be said that more stable relations will be established with the Harris administration in the face of Trump’s unpredictability. In this context, the Harris administration may attach importance to stable relations and dialog with Beijing. However, it should be emphasized that it was the Biden administration that tried a provocation over Taiwan on August 2, 2022 and caused a break in defense ties with China. Therefore, there is no guarantee that the US will make rational decisions in the Harris administration. In this respect, it can be said that there will be no big difference between Trump or Harris in terms of fueling Taiwan and other potential crises.
Trump’s “America First” strategy may even benefit China, especially on Taiwan. Because Trump, as he has done with many other actors, says that Taiwan should pay its debt to America. On the subject, Trump said, “The island nation stole our chips and gave us nothing.”[iv] China is also concerned that if Trump wins the US elections, he may leave Taiwan alone.[v] Regarding this issue, Chen Binhua, spokesperson for China’s Taiwan Affairs Office, said, “The United States will always pursue ‘America first’ and therefore Taiwan could turn into a chess piece thrown from a chessboard at any moment.”[vi] From this point of view, Taiwan may not receive sufficient military support and a full guarantee of protection from the US under the Republican administration. On the other hand, it was observed that the US was more determined to help Taiwan during the Biden era compared to the Trump era. Therefore, it can be argued that the US support for Taiwan will continue more decisively under the Harris administration and this will harm China’s interests.
In addition to Taiwan, recent military cooperation with the Philippines, Japan and South Korea may be disrupted under the Trump administration. Because Trump will pursue cost-benefit, he may demand more from these countries in return for this defense support. In this respect, it can be predicted that the Democrats will actually be more successful than the Republicans in their strategy of encircling China. Trump, on the other hand, may make riskier moves in the Asia-Pacific and destroy the existing gains of the Biden era in an instant. For example, he could fuel potential maritime disputes between the Philippines or Japan and China, which could escalate into a hot conflict.
While Trump’s unpredictability is a negative factor for China, his solution-oriented, pragmatic approach to crises can turn into a positive factor. For example, Trump met face-to-face with North Korean leader Kim Jong-un at the border, has a cordial and interesting dialog with Putin, and has repeatedly said that he could end the war in Ukraine in a day. Taking these aspects into account, Trump could take a pragmatic-solution-oriented approach to many issues in relations with China. In general, it can be predicted that either Trump or Harris will pursue American national interests in relations with China and that there will be only minor nuance differences in policies.
[i] “Does China Prefer Harris or Trump?”, Foreign Affairs, https://www.foreignaffairs.com/united-states/does-china-prefer-harris-or-trump, (Date of Access: 10.08.2024).
[ii] “Trump a ‘wild card’ on China as allies push for tougher policy.”, The Hill, https://thehill.com/policy/international/4754467-donald-trump-china-policy-tougher/, (Date of Access: 12.08.2024).
[iii] Ibid.
[iv] “Donald Trump signals he would not defend Taiwan from Chinese invasion”, Telegraph, https://www.telegraph.co.uk/us/politics/2024/07/17/donald-trump-defend-taiwan-china/, (Date of Access: 12.08.2024).
[v] “China Says Trump Could Abandon Taiwan If He Wins US Election”, Bloomberg, https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-01-31/china-says-trump-could-abandon-taiwan-if-he-wins-us-election, (Date of Access: 12.08.2024).
[vi] Ibid.
