Poland is a remarkable European country with a political structure that has changed frequently throughout history. Recent elections play a critical role in determining the political direction of the country. While Poland’s democratic processes come together with various dynamics in the political arena, elections are not only a popular vote but also a process of determining the future of the country.
On October 15, 2023, Poland’s crucial elections will be held, with the ruling right-wing Law and Justice Party and Donald Tusk’s Liberal Civic Coalition, as well as left-wing and far-right parties competing. The elections, which have attracted a great deal of national and international attention, reflect a competition between parties representing various views and ideologies in the political arena, but also bring to light important issues facing Poland.
Even before the election campaigns began, security was one of the most important issues in Polish politics, given the country’s location on the borders with Belarus and Ukraine. The ruling party leaders promised to increase military spending and build one of the strongest armies in Europe, emphasizing the risk of Russia’s war in Ukraine spilling over into their territory. [1] Likewise, opposition parties pay the same attention to security.
Filip Pazderski, Head of the Democracy and Civil Society Program at the Polish Institute of Public Affairs, assessed that “the war helps the ruling party because of the rallying effect behind the flag.”[2] According to the opposition, what is happening in Poland is the result of the country’s long-standing migration crisis with Belarus.
Another issue is relations with the European Union (EU). Since taking office in 2015, the ruling party in Poland has been criticized for periodically disregarding the independence of the judiciary. This has put Poland at odds with Brussels. The main opposition party, on the other hand, has adopted a pro-European stance. The government interprets this pro-EU stance as “German espionage”.
Like many other European countries, Poland is struggling with inflation. Experts argue that the government is blaming external events, such as the war in Ukraine and the EU’s green policies, for the price increases, implying that the problem is beyond their control.
The most important issue related to the elections is the Ukraine Crisis. Poland took in many Ukrainian refugees and provided them with financial and military support. Since September this year, however, the relationship has been reversed and arms aid to Kiev has been cut off. While the far right in Poland tried to foment hostility towards Ukrainian refugees, Polish farmers’ protests against the influx of cheap grain imported from Ukraine helped to change policy. However, supporters of both parties overwhelmingly want to help Ukraine. Most citizens consider the refugee problem to be one of the least important problems.
The Polish Analyst Wojciech Przybylski said the following about this issue: [3]
‘’I think the opposition is taking a good line. They see refugees as a challenge and they say they know how to deal with it. This is a problem that can be solved instead of playing with it.’’
In addition, one million Poles organized an anti-government protest in Warsaw ahead of the elections. The “Million Hearts March” was created by opposition leader and former Prime Minister Donald Tusk to support the opposition ahead of the elections. “This is definitely the biggest demonstration in Warsaw’s history,” said Monika Beuth, Warsaw City Spokesperson. [4]
According to election polls, the ruling party’s share of the vote is 36%, while the main opposition party’s share is around 30%.[5] The fact that hundreds of thousands of supporters marched in a large opposition demonstration in Warsaw on October 1 can be seen as an indication of the growing strength of the opposition.
The pre-election atmosphere in Poland is characterized by security concerns stemming from the country’s strategic location on the borders with Belarus and Ukraine. The ongoing migration crisis with Belarus has led the opposition to emphasize the idea of foreigners invading the country. Moreover, the government’s neglect of the rule of law in its relations with the EU has created tensions with Brussels and has become another major issue in the elections. According to recent developments, the opposition party has increased its vote share.
[1] Joshua Askew, “Berlin, Babies And Borders: The Issues Shaping Poland’s Upcoming Election”, Euronews,https://www.euronews.com/2023/10/05/five-critical-issues-shaping-polands-upcoming-election (Erişim Tarihi: 06.10.2023).
[2] Aynı yer.
[3] Magdalena Pacıorek, “Ahead Of Elections, A Record One Million Poles Hold Anti-Government Protest In Warsaw”, The Times of Israel, https://www.timesofisrael.com/ahead-of-elections-a-record-one-million-poles-hold-anti-government-protest-in-warsaw/, (Erişim Tarihi: 06.10.2023).
[4] Same place
[5] Anna Grzymała-Busse, “What Is at Stake in Poland’s Election?”, Brookings, https://www.brookings.edu/articles/what-is-at-stake-in-polands-election/ (Erişim Tarihi: 06.10.2023).
