The February 24, 2022, Russia-Ukraine War shook the global system and created a new competitive environment.[1] The Cold War-era rivalry between the Union of Soviet Socialist Republics (USSR) and the United States of America (USA) resurfaced with this war in the form of US-Russia tensions. This was the most significant tension between Washington and Moscow since the fall of the Berlin Wall in 1989[2] and the end of the Cold War in 1991.[3]
Russia cited the expansion of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) into Eastern Europe and its encroachment on its borders as the reason for this war.[4] In this context, the European Union (EU) member states imposed severe sanctions against Russia,[5] including oil price ceilings.[6] It is known that many of these sanctions were imposed at the request of the United States. Considering that Europe has also been seriously affected by these sanctions, it is questionable how long Brussels will be able to continue this Washington-based struggle.
On the other hand, the US wants NATO member states to spend 2% of their Gross Domestic Product (GDP) on defense.[7] In the Eastern European context, Poland, which wants a tougher stance against Moscow, has increased its defense spending to 4%,[8] while Germany is hesitant about 2%.
Russian President Vladimir Putin called US President Joe Biden’s claim that Russia would attack NATO countries in the event of a victory in Ukraine as complete nonsense. Putin added that Russia has no intention of going to war with the NATO military alliance and said, “This is complete nonsense, and I think President Biden is aware of this.” Putin went on to describe Biden’s statements as an attempt to justify his “wrong policy” towards Russia.[9]
In early December 2023, Biden warned that Russia would attack a NATO country in the event of Putin’s victory in Ukraine. However, Biden did not provide clear evidence for his statements. On the other hand, Putin said in an interview broadcast by Rossiya state television, “Russia has no reason, no interest, neither economically, nor politically, nor militarily, to fight with NATO countries.”.[10]
Relations between Russia and NATO have historically been tense and complex. The recent Russian intervention in Ukraine and Biden’s statements in connection with it have further complicated these relations. Putin called Biden’s allegations “complete nonsense” and emphasized that they have no valid basis. According to him, Russia has no interest or reason to go to war with NATO.
Biden’s statements were a warning against Russia’s actions in Ukraine. However, the fact that his statements were not supported by concrete evidence led Putin to characterize them as “wrong policy.” This highlights the current tension in Russia-NATO relations. Putin’s statements show that Russia does not intend a direct confrontation with NATO but aims to keep the situation in Ukraine under control. On the other hand, Biden’s statements are intended to show NATO’s reaction in case Russia’s actions take an international dimension.
Another reason for US and NATO tensions with Russia is Russia’s relations with North Korea. Pyongyang has been largely isolated in the international conjuncture due to its military activities in recent years. This has led to North Korea’s name being frequently associated with illegal activities. Allegations that Pyongyang secretly supplied weapons to Moscow for use in the war in Ukraine are among the most controversial activities that North Korea has been implicated in.
At the same time, Russia’s alleged use of North Korean-made missiles in the war in Ukraine shows that cooperation between the two countries is developing not only diplomatically but also militarily. In the West’s view, Russia could help North Korea develop a nuclear-capable missile program that could threaten not only its East Asian neighbors but also the United States, possibly with intercontinental ballistic missiles. It could be argued that Pyongyang, which is constantly alarming its neighbors with drills in the region while building up its military capacity, is dampening hopes for reconciliation and unification with Seoul. In response to US moves in the region, the North Korean military is accelerating its war preparations with investments in the munitions industry, nuclear weapons, and civil defense sectors. It can be said that there is a lot of ground for cooperation between Russia and North Korea in terms of anti-Westernism.[11] It can be argued that this cooperation can create a challenging conjuncture for the West.
These developments illustrate the delicate balance of Russia-NATO relations and how the Ukraine crisis has affected this balance. Emphasizing the importance of diplomatic solutions and keeping the channels of communication open between the parties is critical for ensuring international security. At this point, it is essential to strengthen dialogue between the parties and focus on diplomatic solutions.
[1] “February 24, 2023-It’s Now One Year Since Russia’s Invasion of Ukraine Began”, Cable News Network World, https://edition.cnn.com/europe/live-news/russia-ukraine-war-news-02-24-23/index.html, (Date of Access: 07.08.2023).
[2] “What Was the Berlin Wall and How Did it Fall?”, IWM, https://shorturl.at/dexRW, (Date of Access: 07.08.2023).
[3] “Mikhail Gorbachev: The Soviet Leader who Helped End the Cold War”, British Broadcast Corporation News, https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-13669848, (Date of Access: 07.08.2023).
[4] “Did NATO Expansion Really Cause Putin’s Invasion?”, American Foreign Service Association, https://afsa.org/did-nato-expansion-really-cause-putins-invasion, (Date of Access: 07.08.2023).
[5] “EU Agrees to Set $60 Price Cap Level for Russian Oil Exports”, Bloomberg, https://shorturl.at/ryDP1, (Date of Access: 07.08.2023).
[6] “Impact of EU Sanctions for European Companies in the Gulf”, Arabian Gulf Business Insight, https://shorturl.at/rswCE, (Date of Access: 07.08.2023).
[7] “NATO: Why is Spending 2% of GDP on Defence so Controversial?”, Euro News, https://www.euronews.com/2023/04/07/nato-why-is-spending-2-of-gdp-on-defence-so-controversial, (Date of Access: 19.08.2023).
[8] “Poland to Spend 4% of GDP on Defence This Year, Highest Current Level in NATO”, Notes from Poland, https://notesfrompoland.com/2023/01/31/poland-to-spend-4-of-gdp-on-defence-this-year-highest-current-level-in-nato/, (Date of Access: 19.08.2023).
[9] Putin Says Biden’s Remark about Russian Plan to Attack NATO is ‘Complete Nonsense’, Reuters, https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/putin-says-bidens-remark-about-russian-plan-attack-nato-is-complete-rubbish-2023-12-17/, (Date of Access: 17.12.2023).
[10] Putin Says Biden’s Remark about Russian Plan to Attack NATO is ‘Complete Nonsense’, Reuters, https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/putin-says-bidens-remark-about-russian-plan-attack-nato-is-complete-rubbish-2023-12-17/, (Date of Access: 17.12.2023).
[11] Ibıd.
