On August 8, 2022, Evgeniy Balitskiy, the so-called leader of Ukraine’s Zaporizhia region under Russian occupation, announced that a referendum is going to be held in the region to become a part of Russia.[1] The announcement is quite significant in terms of shedding light on the course of the war and the strategy of the Moscow administration.
Considering the current condition of the war waged by Russia in Ukraine, it can be said that the Moscow administration maintains its goal of transforming the mentioned country into a landlocked state. At this point, it can be argued that the openness of the Grain Corridor limited the Russian interventions in Odessa and made the target difficult. However, it is obvious that in the future, if Russia takes Odessa under control, Ukraine’s exit to the Black Sea will be almost entirely blocked. Moreover, it is also claimed that Russia did not operate only in the context of the Black Sea in the Ukraine War and has recently raised its targets.
To elaborate the claim, it is stated that the Ukrainian Army has strengthened with the help of the aid from the West and is preparing for the attack. At this point, Russia, who is aware that things on the field are not going as it was planned, will have to make a choice. This is to admit a defeat in Ukraine or to expand the scope of Russian attacks before the Ukrainian Army takes the offense. It can be predicted that Russian President Vladimir Putin will not agree to end the war without achieving what he can describe as a “victory” in Ukraine. Therefore, it is possible to predict that the Kremlin will choose to expand the war to a wider geography by aiming for the sky. As a matter of fact, this heralds the transition to the third phase of the war called “Special Operation”.
As it is known, Russia set two main targets in the first phase of the war. The political goal of the war can be summarized as the overthrow of the President of Ukraine, Volodymyr Zelenskyy. Its military goal can be described as transforming Ukraine into a landlocked state. However, in the first phase of the war, the Russian forces encountered an unexpected resistance and faced the fact that the overthrow of Zelensky was not as easy as it was thought. Therefore, Russia reduced the siege in Kiev and turned to the east of the country. Since the announcement of the transition to the second phase of the war, the conflicts shifted to Eastern Ukraine.
At the current stage, the Moscow administration is preparing to increase the target and actually gives the signals of the transition to the third phase of the war. As a matter of fact, the Russian officials, especially Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov mentioned the goal of overthrowing the Zelenskyy administration after a long break, confirms this. In other words, Moscow increased its target to prevent Ukraine from attacking and saving its lands, and turned its eyes to Kiev once again. As a matter of fact, the air attack carried out by the Ukrainian Army on the Russian base in Crimea obviously reveals that the Kyiv administration has a determined stance in establishing the territorial integrity of the country, including Crimea. For this reason, it seems that Russia will try to take the lead by expanding the scope of the operation.
At this point, the idea that the Dnieper River can be positioned as the “Berlin Wall of the New Cold War” appears. To make another analogy, the Dnieper River may be planning as to take over the function that the Euphrates took in the Syrian Civil War. In other words, on one side of the river, Russia; On the other hand, it may be desired to create a status quo in which the West will be decisive.
On the way to this status quo, it is a matter of curiosity what kind of strategy the Kremlin will follow regarding the lands it controls. Because when Russia intervened in Ukraine in 2014, it implemented a hybrid model. On the one hand, Kremlin, which established so-called states for the separatists in Luhansk and Donetsk and recognized the independence of these so-called states in 2022. On the other hand, it annexed Crimea in violation of international law through the so-called referendum it organized in Crimea. In this sense, the statement that a referendum will be held in the Zaporozhian region can be interpreted as an attempt to operate the Crimean model.
The choice of the Crimean model, on the other hand, points to a paradox. Because one of the reasons for Russia’s intervention in Ukraine is its statements that it wants to create a buffer zone between itself and the West. As it is known, until the colored revolutions, decision makers in Kiev carried out politics by considering the Russia-West balance and positioned Ukraine as a buffer zone. However, this country’s loss of its qualification as a buffer zone caused Moscow to internalize the feeling of being surrounded, and this led to its tendency to aggressive and revisionist policies. But if the Kremlin really wanted to create a buffer zone with the West, it would prefer the Donbas model, prioritizing the buffer zone option.
In both scenarios, Russian intervention in Ukraine is against international law as it violates the borders and territorial integrity of a sovereign state whose borders are recognized by the United Nations (UN). However, the Crimean model has a more special dimension. Because this method, the purpose of Russia’s policies is not to create a buffer zone; indicates that it is to expand its territories.
On the other hand, when Moscow does not have a goal in this regard; It is also possible that the separatists in Zaporizhia may have a demand in this direction. As a matter of fact, from time to time, referendums are held in the South Ossetia region of Georgia or attempts are made to organize them; However, it is seen that Moscow has not taken any steps on this matter.
Moreover, it is possible that the statement specific to Zaporizhia is the product of a study carried out to increase the war motivation of the separatists in the region. The promise of Russian citizenship can be turned into a motivator for those who will fight at the hybrid war point. But what happened in Crimea reminds us of the option of annexation. Moreover, it does not seem realistic for the separatists supported by Russia to make such a statement despite Moscow.
Consequently, it is thought that the geography where the conflicts took place in the Russia-Ukraine War will expand; In the separatist regions, the issue of being a part of Russia’s territory is being discussed. This is rather than creating a buffer zone by the Moscow administration; indicates that it was in Ukraine with the aim of gaining land.
[1] Dmitri Chirciu, “Ukrayna’nın Zaporijya Bölgesinde Rusya’ya Katılmak İçin Referandum Düzenlenecek”, Anadolu Ajansı, https://www.aa.com.tr/tr/dunya/ukraynanin-zaporijya-bolgesinde-rusyaya-katilmak-icin-referandum-duzenlenecek/2656740, (Date of Accession: 12.08.2022).
