The importance of Georgia, one of the critical states of the Caucasus, has increased geopolitically, geostrategically and geoeconomically since the beginning of the Russia-Ukraine War. In this context, the Tbilisi administration can be shown among the winner states, even if it is not involved in the war. Because Georgia has increased its economic and political gains and experienced a significant relief in terms of security.
As it will be remembered, Russia successfully emerged from the war with Georgia in 2008. While this situation creates important problems in Georgian society; The so-called independence of South Ossetia and Abkhazia with the support of Moscow caused a psychological pressure. Because Russia has achieved psychological superiority by demonstrating its political, economic and military capacity. However, it is possible to say that the losses suffered by the Russian Army in Ukraine created a positive atmosphere in Georgia. Although Georgia could not gain psychological superiority over Russia, it can be said that the difficult process that Moscow went through gave the Georgian society morale.
On the other hand, the concentration of Russia on its western borders has led to a decrease in the importance it attaches to its south. Because one of the most discussed issues in the world is Moscow’s decreasing influence in the post-Soviet geography. It is possible to say that Georgia also benefited from this in a positive way.
The sanctions imposed on Russia along with the war in Ukraine have reduced the energy trade between Europe and Russia to one of the lowest levels in history. At this point, European states have turned to new alternatives in order to overcome the energy crisis created by their dependence on Russia. The regions that stand out among these alternatives are the Caspian Basin and, in this context, the Caucasus and Central Asia. Georgia occupies a key position in the process of transferring the energy resources in these regions to Europe.
Georgia is one of the main bases for energy transfer to Europe in terms of both its ports and its route with projects such as Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan and the Southern Gas Corridor including TANAP and TAP.
Considering the Middle Corridor and Belt-Road Project, the location of Georgia gains more importance. Because Georgia, which plays an important role in removing the geographical barrier between Central Asia and Europe, acts as an important bridge. It is also possible to see this in the steps taken in terms of regional integration processes.
From the perspective of China, the blockage of the Northern Corridor passing through Russia due to the war in Ukraine and the insecurity of the Southern Corridor due to the Taiwan Crisis and instability in South Asia have led Beijing to the Middle Corridor.
In this context, China, taking care to pass the Belt-Road Project on a stable and safe route, has accelerated its relations with Georgia in the Middle Corridor. As a matter of fact, China’s interest in ports in Georgia is increasing day by day.[1] In addition, on September 21, 2022, Georgian Prime Minister Irakli Garibashvili and former Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi gave the message that bilateral relations would be further strengthened during their meeting in New York on the occasion of the United Nations General Assembly.[2]
In addition to all these, after the war in Ukraine started, there were some tensions between Russia and the Central Asian states. One of these tensions took place on the Astana-Moscow line. Thereupon, Russia stopped Kazakhstan’s oil exports through the Caspian Pipeline Consortium (CPC), citing technical issues. Thereupon, Kazakhstan headed towards the Caucasus via the Caspian Sea. Ultimately, Kazakhstan’s oil and refined product exports over the Black Sea using Georgian ports increased ten times compared to the previous year.[3] This development increased the gains of Georgia and the country turned into an important port for Central Asia.
Although Georgia has problematic relations with Russia, it follows a policy of balance today. Because it is possible to see this in the war in Ukraine. While Georgia was trying not to be a party to the war in question; Garibashvili declared that Ukraine wanted Georgia to open a second front against Russia. The Georgian leader opposes the opening of a second front.[4] In addition, while Georgia is sending humanitarian aid to Ukraine due to the war;[5] opposes sending military aid.[6]
As a result, it can be said that Georgia wants the war to continue. Because the weakening of Moscow, which went through a difficult process on the battlefield and transferred its economic resources to the war, is in line with the interests of Tbilisi. However, although Georgia does not take a front against Russia, it plays an important role in both the alleviation of the energy crisis and the continuation of the war, while gaining various gains by participating in the energy delivery process to Europe. At this point, Georgia also contributes indirectly to the attrition of Russia, although not directly. The most important thing is that with the war, Georgia’s geopolitical, geostrategic and geoeconomic gains increased with the dimensions of Europe, Central Asia and China.
[1] Irina Arabidze, “China in Georgia-A Developing Relationship”, China Observers, https://chinaobservers.eu/china-in-georgia-a-developing-relationship/, (Date of Accession: 03.02.2023).
[2] “Prime Minister Irakli Garibashvili of Georgia Meets with Wang Yi”, Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the People’s Republic of China, https://www.fmprc.gov.cn/mfa_eng/zxxx_662805/202209/t20220923_10770195.html, (Date of Accession: 03.02.2023).
[3] “Kazakhstan’s Oil and Refined Products Exports via Georgian Ports Jump Tenfold in 2022”, Hellenic Shipping News, https://www.hellenicshippingnews.com/kazakhstans-oil-and-refined-products-exports-via-georgian-ports-jump-tenfold-in-2022/, (Date of Accession: 03.02.2023).
[4] “Ukraine Tried to Pressure Georgia Into Joining Fight Against Russia-PM”, Russia Today, https://www.rt.com/russia/566780-ukraine-georgia-second-front-russia/, (Date of Accession: 03.02.2023).
[5] “Humanitarian Aid to Ukraine, Help for Ukrainians Stranded in Georgia Among Georgian Government’s Support Initiatives Since Russian Invasion”, Agenda, https://agenda.ge/en/news/2022/584, (Date of Accession: 03.02.2023).
[6] “Georgia’s Prime Minister Rules Out Military Assistance to Ukraine”, European Pravda, https://www.eurointegration.com.ua/eng/news/2022/12/7/7152051/, (Date of Accession: 03.02.2023).
