Pakistan is going through a challenging process in the fight against terrorism. In addition to local radical groups in the region, the regional structures of the terrorist organisation State of Iraq and al-Sham (ISIS), which acts in line with global goals, also carry out actions against Pakistan. The terrorist organisation Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) has recently emerged as the biggest security challenge for Islamabad. Especially after the withdrawal of the United States of America (USA) from Afghanistan, the TTP has become more active in the security environment where threat perceptions have increased.
In addition, the TTP entered into a negotiation and ceasefire process with the Islamabad administration, but failed to reach an agreement with the government and ended the ceasefire. Another actor that plays an active role in the negotiation process between the parties and in periods of conflict is the Taliban. It is also understood that the US, which withdrew from Afghanistan, indirectly influenced the conflict dynamics between the parties. On May 22, 2023, news reports claimed that the ammunition and equipment left behind by the US during its withdrawal from Afghanistan fell into the hands of the TTP[1]. Therefore, the impact of the US attitude on Pakistan’s security perception and system is emphasised.
It is reported that the US left behind $7.12 billion worth of military equipment, including small arms and light weapons, night vision devices and military communications equipment, during its withdrawal from Afghanistan. There have also been allegations that these weapons and equipment have leaked into different conflict areas in Pakistan and beyond. There are also data to confirm these allegations. For example, on May 16, 2023, the TTP posted photos on its social media platforms of US weapons, including rifles and helmets equipped with thermal sights, laser sights and rifles, wearing modern military suits. Similarly, another TTP video released in August 2022 showed militants carrying M24 sniper rifles, M16 4A rifles with thermal scopes, M4s with Trijicon ACOG scopes, heavy machine guns and 107 mm Type 85 rocket launchers.[2]
The TTP has significantly increased its attacks and visibility in Pakistan over the last two years. This is one of the most challenging factors faced by the Islamabad administration. Developments in the supply of weapons and ammunition increase the impact of the organisation’s attacks and the casualties caused by its actions. The ammunition used by the organisation in attacks is also important.
On the other hand, the increase in military activity has led to an increase in the losses suffered by Pakistani security forces. In 2021 and 2022, it is reflected in the reports that the number of TTP attacks both increased and became more lethal. In this context, it can be inferred that captured munitions played an important role in the increase in the dose and severity of the organisation’s attacks. Moreover, this effect is seen not only in the mobility of the TTP but also in the behavior of separatist Baloch groups. Therefore, it can be said that such groups were also able to obtain various ammunition.
Discussions about US weapons falling into the hands of various groups have been raised before. In
April 2022, it was claimed to have used advanced US weapons such as M16 machine guns and
M4 assault rifles, night vision goggles and military communications equipment.[3]
It is known that the organization generally used small arms, light and heavy machine guns, rocket-propelled grenades, rockets and IEDs to carry out attacks. In the period from early 2022 to May, the TTP is reported to have carried out attacks on the border with Pakistan using long-range sniper rifles equipped with thermal sighting devices, leading to increased casualties among security forces.[4]
However, when the attacks that took place in Pakistan during the aforementioned period are analyzed, the possibilities that the supply of weapons may be possible are also strengthened. As a matter of fact, there are also reports indicating that the TTP’s terrorist attacks and violence increased in 2022 compared to the previous year. The Global Terrorism Index also noted that attacks in the period in question increased by 120%. Moreover, with these attacks, the terrorist organisation TTP ranked eighth on the list of the deadliest groups in the world.[5]
On the other hand, the possibility that these allegations may be unfounded should also be considered. Taliban officials have stated that they captured more than 300,000 light weapons, 26,000 heavy weapons and approximately 61,000 military vehicles after the US withdrawal. However, they have stated that this equipment has not fallen into the hands of the TTP, but that very few and less alarming weapons may have been smuggled.[6] The emergence of such allegations may be aimed at shaping the tendency of the US and the Pakistani government to act jointly in the fight against terrorism.
In conclusion, the fact that the increasing terrorist acts in Pakistan and the escalation in the severity of TTP attacks may be linked to the weapons left behind by the US has an impact on regional security dynamics. In addition to affecting the Taliban’s ability to manage the mobility of groups, this issue has implications for Pakistan’s dialog with the US and the Taliban in the fight against terrorism. The direction of the TTP’s activity and distribution of power, the munitions used in the attacks and the impact they have had, will also shape the debate.
[1] “How US Weapons Left Behind in Afghanistan are Impacting Pakistan’s Internal Security”, Arab News, https://www.arabnews.pk/node/2308116, (Date of Accession: 23.05.2023).
[2] Ibid.
[3] “US Arms Left Behind in Afghanistan Being Used by TTP”, The Meghalayan, https://themeghalayan.com/us-arms-left-behind-in-afghanistan-being-used-by-ttp/, (Date of Accession: 23.05.2023).
[4] “How US Weapons Left…”, op.cit.
[5] “Global Terrosim Index-2023”, Reliefweb, https://reliefweb.int/report/world/global-terrorism-index-2023, (Date of Accession: 23.05.2023).
[6] “Pakistani Armed Groups Obtain U.S. Weapons Left Behind in Afghanistan”, Rferl, https://www.rferl.org/a/pakistan-armed-groups-obtain-us-weapons-left-in-afghanistan/32340664.html, (Date of Accession: 23.05.2023).
