In 2024, Europe will find itself amidst numerous significant presidential and parliamentary elections. While Finland elected center-right candidate Alexander Stubb as its new president following the second round on February 11, 2024,[1] Portugal will undergo early parliamentary elections on March 10, 2024, after the resignation of Socialist Prime Minister Antonio Costa amid a corruption investigation.[2] Throughout the year, presidential elections will take place in Slovakia, Lithuania, and Iceland, alongside parliamentary elections in Belgium, Croatia, Austria, and the United Kingdom. Each of these elections carries great importance and will significantly influence the political landscape of Europe. Among the upcoming elections, the European Parliament elections stand out.
Citizens of the European Union (EU) are preparing for the European Parliament elections on June 6-9, 2024, with over 400 million voters expected to participate. Acting as the co-legislator on all matters falling within the Union’s competence, the Parliament holds sway over the approval of the EU budget and shaping the future architecture of the European Commission. Therefore, the voting in June holds great significance.
Upon assuming office, the new European Commission will unveil its strategic agenda for the period of 2024-2029, outlining the broad contours of the EU’s political priorities. This strategic agenda will serve as a comprehensive framework guiding EU actions over the next five years. Notably, the 2024-2029 strategic agenda will be crucial in addressing the global climate crisis and directing efforts towards achieving the EU’s 2030 climate and energy framework. Additionally, geopolitical crises such as the Russia-Ukraine War and the conflict between Israel and Hamas, combined with economic challenges, are expected to feature prominently on the agenda of the EU Commission.
Moreover, in Europe, national elections often result in significant support for far-right parties, either through their victories or by positioning themselves as potential strong coalition partners for forming governments. With these gains expected to have repercussions in EU elections, French farmers, in January, voiced their complaints about increased tax burdens and European green policies through organized protests.[3] These demonstrations quickly spread beyond national borders to other European countries like Germany, the Netherlands, Italy, and Belgium.[4] These protests aim to exert pressure on European governments to relax strict environmental regulations and implement measures against cheap imports in the face of rising costs. It is anticipated that these protests, held across Europe, could accelerate the rise of populist radical right-wing parties in the upcoming 2024 European Parliament elections.
In an environment where economic concerns overshadow environmental priorities, the Greens are predicted to fall short of their previous successes in the 2024 European Parliament elections. Predictions suggest they may secure 45 seats[5] compared to the 71 seats[6] obtained in the 2019 EU elections. In contrast to the decline in the number of Greens’ seats, a new public opinion poll indicates significant gains for the far-right Identity and Democracy group, which is projected to secure 40 seats, bringing their total to 98 seats and making them the third-largest group in the European Parliament.[7] In addition, gains are expected for the right-wing European Conservatives and Reformists (ECR) group. At the same time, the European People’s Party (EPP) is predicted to maintain its position as the largest group in the Parliament. [8]
Disinformation campaigns also pose a real threat to the integrity of the 2024 elections. France, Poland, and Germany have accused Russia of organizing a vast network of websites aimed at destabilizing their governments through pro-Russian propaganda. A warning statement has been issued regarding the expected mass dissemination of such content ahead of the planned EU elections in June.[9] Official campaigns will continue until the elections in June, with disinformation campaigns expected to pose a potential problem in May, which is anticipated to be the busiest month of the EU election campaign.
Undoubtedly, there is a growing perception among EU citizens that liberal parties lack the ability to effectively address issues that significantly impact the daily lives of Europeans, such as migration and economic crises. Furthermore, as the cost-of-living crisis persists, EU green policies appear to impose additional burdens on Europeans. According to recent polls, this situation has resulted in seat losses for both the Renew Europe and Green parties. There is a noticeable tendency among Europeans to support right-wing and far-right groups, believing they will offer more effective solutions. In this context, the rise of far-right parties is evident both in national politics and at the European level. Current polls indicating that the Identity and Democracy Party (I&D) will significantly increase its seats in Parliament serve as evidence of this rise.
In conclusion, the election results will shape the direction of EU politics for the next five years. Therefore, the increasing influence of right-wing and far-right parties could hinder pro-European initiatives in the European Parliament. This change will likely manifest through new majority coalitions on critical issues such as climate change and migration. Another important consideration is that far-right parties are no longer marginal players in politics. Recent successes in national elections and potential gains in EU elections position them as dominant political forces in mainstream politics. Hence, far-right parties now hold enough power that other parties cannot ignore them. Consequently, it is expected that after the June 2024 elections, a right-leaning European Parliament will prevail.
[1] “Centre-Right’s Stubb Wins Close-Fought Finnish Presidential Election”, Reuters, https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/finlands-stubb-seen-frontrunner-presidential-run-off-2024-02-11//, (Accessed: 11.02.2024).
[2] “Portuguese PM António Costa Resigns Amid Corruption Inquiry”, The Guardian, https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/nov/07/portuguese-pm-antonio-costa-resigns-amid-corruption-inquiry, (Accessed: 07.11.2023).
[3] “Paris Siege: French Farmers Encircle Capital With An Angry Blockade”, The Washington Post, https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2024/01/29/paris-siege-farmer-protests-france/, (Accessed: 29.01.2024).
[4] “Europe’s farmer protests are spreading. Here’s where and why”, Politico, https://www.politico.eu/article/farmer-protest-europe-map-france-siege-paris-germany-poland, (Accessed: 06.02.2024).
[5] “European Parliament Election 2024-Seat Projection”, Politico, https://www.politico.eu/europe-poll-of-polls/european-parliament-election/, (Accessed: 16.02.2024).
[6] “Greens Surge As Parties Make Strongest Ever Showing Across Europe”, The Guardian, https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/may/26/greens-surge-as-parties-make-strongest-ever-showing-across-europe, (Accessed: 16.02.2024).
[7] “EU Election 2024: New Poll Shows Right-Wing Populist Surge”, Politico, https://www.politico.eu/article/right-wing-populist-surge-eu-election-policy/, (Accessed: 24.01.2024).
[8] Ibid.
[9] “European Powers Warn Spike in Russian Propaganda Before EU Elections”, Reuters, https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/european-powers-warn-spike-russian-propaganda-before-eu-elections-2024-02-12/, (Accessed: 12.02.2024).
