Oil, natural gas and coal have always maintained their place in the history of the world. These resources are of great importance for human history, from industry to technological development and from defense to our daily needs. The asymmetric nature of hydrocarbon reserves determines the fate of countries for their development. Energy has become a phenomenon that is of vital importance for states with strong economies and at the same time provides vulnerabilities caused by this asymmetry.
20. the leaps in renewable energy technologies since the beginning of the century have been a source of hope for countries that do not have fossil fuels. The initiation of processes to combat the climate crisis has pushed countries to take decisions for “green transformation”. With energy security and supply continuity becoming the main equation, supply-demand security has been at the secondary level for states until the Russia-Ukraine War. The Russia-Ukraine War has radically changed geopolitics, as well as being a turning point for the continuity of conservatism in energy.
While high geopolitical tensions are affecting the global balancing processes, signals have been given that the crisis in the energy sector will grow even more. the steady growth of oil until the end of March 2024 has raised the possibility of an increase in global inflation. These increases were supported by geopolitical tensions in Europe and the Middle East, tightening supply concerns and increased fuel demand for recovering economies. Analysts have lowered their target pricing of oil barrel prices to the level of $ 95 in the 3-month quarter.[1] It would not be wrong to make comments that cheap and continuous energy plans have been disrupted in the first 3 months of 2024.
On the other hand, global instability has been the biggest obstacle to the gradual green energy transition. The sudden exit of the EU from fossil fuels and the unplanned transition to renewable energy before the Russia-Ukraine War are an example for other countries. As a matter of fact, when we are talking about fossil or nuclear power plants that were closed yesterday, decisions are being made to extend the life of these enterprises today.[2]
the targeting of senior Iranian officials by Israel in Syria at the beginning of April 2024[3] and Ukraine’s targeting of Russia’s refineries with drone strikes has dispelled expectations that OPEC oil restrictions will be lifted. As a matter of fact, it has been recorded that there will be no changes in the oil supply policy at the meeting of OPEC+ senior ministers held on April 3, 2024, and statements were made to some countries to increase compliance with production cuts.[4] In addition, heavy oil supplies have tightened globally after Mexico and the United Arab Emirates reduced exports to these degrees. According to JP Morgan analysts, strong global oil demand increased by an average of 1.4 million bpd in the first quarter. It has been stated that two main topics for the withdrawal of oil on the axis of these tensions are a strong balancing element; the US employment report for March and the expectation of strong Chinese demand.
Fatih Birol, President of the International Energy Agency (IEA), made statements about the acceleration of the return to nuclear energy worldwide, especially in the EU countries. At the first Nuclear conference held in Belgium, he also pointed out that nuclear energy and fusion energy will shape the future.[5] Among the foundations of this turn, as mentioned in the article, geopolitical tensions are the biggest obstacle to achieving cheap and accessible energy. Dec. In addition to nuclear as an alternative to the tensions experienced here, we also see that LNG has created a great alternative. The “2050 Outlook Report” of the Gas Exporting Countries Forum (GECF) has recorded that global natural gas production is expected to reach 5.3 trillion cubic meters by 2050 from the current 4 trillion cubic meters. It has been emphasized that approximately 9 trillion dollars should be allocated to global natural gas investments until 2050 in order to achieve this goal. It is planned that 8.2 trillion dollars of the investments will be allocated to exploration, drilling and production, and about 740 billion dollars will be allocated to transmission infrastructure.
It is estimated that Asia Pacific and North America will take the lead in investments, and Eurasia, Africa, the Middle East, Latin America and Europe will follow these regions.[6] In this regard, which is of critical importance, it is necessary to ensure the security of supply routes (sea transportation) in order to strengthen the alternative of LNG and protect it from geopolitical tensions. On the Eurasian side, the inability to realize production in Central Asian countries at the expected level, tensions in the Central Sahel regions in Africa, hot conflicts in the Middle East, decisions of governments in Latin America, South China Sea disputes in Asia-Pacific and ongoing Deciders in Europe are among the most basic problems that need to be solved in this regard. In the medium term, it is possible to predict that states with high LNG capacity and Decoupling their inter-state relations to the norms of energy diplomacy will move from the position of “energy importing country” to the position of “energy exporting country”.
Finally, such tensions before the COP’29 Conference to be held in Azerbaijan in November 2023 have already started to change the topics that will be discussed at the international level of the conference. The awarding of the last two conferences to countries that play the role of exporters in terms of fossil fuels can be interpreted as the goals of creating a joint consortium or mechanism in the field of fossil fuels.
[1] “Oil heads for second weekly gain on geopolitical tension, supply concerns.”, Reuters, https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/oil-prices-bound-second-weekly-gain-geopolitical-tension-supply-concerns-2024-04-05/, (Access Date: 05.04.2024).
[2] “Belgium pushes off nuclear energy exit by 10 years due to Ukraine war”, AA, https://www.aa.com.tr/en/europe/belgium-pushes-off-nuclear-energy-exit-by-10-years-due-to-ukraine-war/2540222, (Access Date: 19.03.2022).
[3] “How could Iran seek to hurt Israel after general’s killing?”, BBC, https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-68724691, (Access Date: 03.04.2024).
[4] “OPEC+ decision on stability in production policy”, Bloomberg, https://www.bloomberght.com/opec-dan-uretim-politikasinda-istikrar-karari-2350585, (Access Date: 04.04.2024).
[5] “UEA President Birol: Nuclear energy is returning strongly.”, Bloomberg, https://www.bloomberght.com/uea-baskani-birol-nukleer-enerji-guclu-sekilde-geri-donuyor-2349863, (Access Date: 21.03.2024).
[6] “Monthly Gas Market Report”, Gas Exporting Countries Forum, https://www.gecf.org/insights/monthly-gas-market-report.aspx?p=1&s =, (Access Date: 03.04.2024).
