An unmanned aerial vehicle belonging to Ukraine caused a major fire by striking a petroleum storage facility in western Russia on January 19, 2024. [1] It can be said that Ukraine forces are expanding their attacks into Russian territory. This attack aims to unsettle Russians and undermine Russian President Vladimir Putin’s claim of “normal life in the country” ahead of the presidential election on March 17, 2024.
In this context, it can be argued that Putin aims to consolidate his domestic population and send a message to the West internationally by suggesting that things are going well in the Ukraine War. Recently, there has been a debate in the West about the necessity of the aid provided to Ukraine. This has raised the possibility of cutting off or significantly reducing the aforementioned aid. In this context, it can be said that Moscow aims to break the resistance of the West with the mentioned message and cut off the aid.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has pledged to target more objectives along the Russian borders this year.[2] Kiev officials assert that Russian air defense systems are focused on the occupied territories of Ukraine. As Ukrainian forces develop longer-range unmanned aerial vehicles, they gain the capability to strike targets further within Russian territory. It could be argued that this situation also aims to convey the message that the situation in Ukraine is not as dire as believed in the war, echoing Zelensky’s message. As mentioned above, the West has started to adopt a skeptical approach towards Ukraine, which is certainly not in Kiev’s interest. Therefore, Zelensky essentially wants the war to continue along with the continuation of aid, aiming to reclaim the lost territories from Russia. In this context, Ukraine needs to convince the West that it can achieve these goals. Indeed, Zelensky’s pledge can be interpreted within this framework.
On the other hand, the Russian Ministry of Defense stated that on January 18, 2024, an unmanned aerial vehicle from Ukraine was shot down in the outskirts of St. Petersburg. According to ministry official Vladimir Rogov, the wreckage of the UAV fell on the land of the St. Petersburg Oil Terminal on the southern outskirts of the city. Mikhail Skigin, a co-owner of the terminal, confirmed that the unmanned aerial vehicle targeted the terminal.[3]
Ukraine’s attacks into Russia’s interior regions represent a situation where non-traditional methods of warfare are met with responses. This demonstrates Ukraine’s capability and technology to effectively launch attacks beyond Russia’s borders. Moreover, this situation could be persuasive for the West regarding the continuation of aid to Ukraine.
It could be argued that Ukraine’s development of long-range unmanned aerial vehicles has the ability to bypass Russia’s air defense systems. This situation demonstrates that effective attacks against civilian and strategic targets are possible beyond traditional battlefields. Russia may need to increase its defense measures to ensure national security at its borders. Indeed, the performance that Kiev displays as its attack capacity increases could lead the West to perceive the Ukraine War as becoming increasingly detrimental to Russia. This could potentially lead to the continuation or even increase of Western support to Ukraine in the short term. Indeed, the United States and the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) view Russia as a significant adversary.
Furthermore, Ukraine’s attacks on Russian territory appear to undermine Vladimir Putin’s claim that “everything is normal in Russia.” These attacks could have a significant impact not only on the daily lives of Russian citizens but also on domestic politics and societal levels. Indeed, propaganda and psychological warfare are increasingly playing roles in modern conflict zones. These events illustrate the complexity of conflicts beyond traditional borders and the impact of modern technology.
The situation is not just about the status and future of the conflict in Ukraine but also about the conditions in other conflict zones around the world. Currently, there is a war between Israel and Hamas, as well as ongoing tension regarding the Houthis in the Red Sea. Additionally, the threat from North Korea in the Asia-Pacific region has been escalating with Pyongyang shutting down all diplomatic, negotiation, and communication channels[4]. Moreover, there will be a presidential race in the United States in 2024. Considering all these factors together, it can be said that it is difficult for Washington to allocate full energy and resources to the war in Ukraine. This further weakens Ukraine’s position.
In addition to all of this, the continuation of such support is also dependent on cooperation and communication between the United States, NATO, and the European Union (EU). Indeed, for the United States to ensure the consolidation of Western support in providing assistance, it requires the cooperation of these organizations.
As a result, it can be said that the stance of the West regarding the Russia-Ukraine War will vary depending on the developments in other conflict zones around the world, the outcome of the US elections, and Ukraine’s ability to resist and counter Russia. Indeed, it can be inferred that Ukraine desires to regain the territories it has lost by continuing the war. However, the approach of the West towards this situation remains a question mark.
[1] “A Ukrainian Drone Attack on an Oil Depot Inside Russia Causes a Massive Blaze, Officials Say”, Associated Press News, https://apnews.com/article/russia-ukraine-war-oil-depot-attack-fire-cc20241267991aad0dac7260e350c48f, (Date of Access: 20.01.2024).
[2] Ibıd.
[3] Ibıd.
[4] “North Korea Fired Cruise Missiles in 3rd Launch of Such Weapons this Month, South Korea Says”, Associated Press News, https://apnews.com/article/north-korea-cruise-missile-launches-tensions-5083a866c0f62f3b3a20cb1339eeb8bf, (Date of Access: 30.01.2024).
