Relations between Azerbaijan and Russia, shaped by historical ties and strategic cooperation, occasionally reveal their fragility through crises. The crash of an Azerbaijan Airlines aircraft near Aktau on December 25, 2024, served as a tangible example of these vulnerabilities, testing the dynamics between the two countries once again. Following the accident, Azerbaijan’s explicit demands directed at Russia and Moscow’s contradictory statements drew international attention not only to the humanitarian aspect of the incident but also to its impact on regional balances. This tension suggests that, despite Russia’s efforts to maintain its influence in the South Caucasus, its hegemony may face further challenges.
The crash of an Azerbaijan Airlines (AZAL) aircraft near the city of Aktau in Kazakhstan went down in history not only as a tragedy but also as a significant source of tension in Azerbaijan-Russia relations. The accident claimed the lives of 38 passengers, while 32 survived, and the ensuing debates attracted international attention due to their humanitarian and diplomatic dimensions. The Azerbaijani government, in its statement, confirmed that the aircraft had been struck by missile shrapnel fired from Russia’s Pantsir-S air defense system during drone activity over Grozny. The damaged aircraft, despite the pilots’ emergency landing requests, was denied landing permission at any Russian airport and was redirected over the Caspian Sea to Aktau. It was reported that GPS systems had been jammed during the flight. This incident demonstrated that the crash was not merely a technical mishap but also a major diplomatic and military failure.[1]
Following this tragic event, Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev explicitly voiced his demands to Russia regarding the Aktau crash. Stating that “Russia must apologize to Azerbaijan, acknowledge its guilt, punish those responsible, and provide compensation both to our state and the victims,” Aliyev emphasized that these demands were grounded in international norms and underscored Azerbaijan’s determination to resolve the matter justly. Criticizing the contradictory statements made by Russia in the first three days following the accident, Aliyev dismissed claims such as an oxygen tank explosion or a bird strike, which he described as “absurd scenarios,” as unfounded. He highlighted that the holes in the aircraft’s fuselage and the presence of foreign objects in the passengers’ injuries clearly indicated external interference, adding that all details would become clear after the completion of the black box analysis.[2]
Despite the Azerbaijani government’s efforts to deliver a strong message to the international community, Russia’s initial statements presented a different narrative. The Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs labeled reports of consultations with the foreign ministries of Azerbaijan and Kazakhstan regarding the accident, allegedly spread by “foreign agents” in NATO countries, as “politically motivated disinformation.” The ministry stated that the causes of the crash were being investigated by expert organizations, but these explanations were deemed unsatisfactory by Azerbaijan. Demonstrating its determination, Azerbaijan brought Russia’s contradictory statements to the attention of the international community, ensuring the exposure of the facts.[3]
The crash has reignited discussions on Azerbaijan’s air transportation safety and international responsibilities. Following the accident near Aktau, AZAL suspended flights on the Baku-Grozny and Baku-Makhachkala routes. While flights on other routes were announced to continue as scheduled, AZAL emphasized that this decision was part of its policy to prioritize passenger safety. This focus on aviation safety reflects Azerbaijan’s commitment to international cooperation. Such measures in transportation security represent significant steps to prevent similar tragedies in the future.[4]
In addition, a satirical video produced in Russia depicting air defense systems shooting down Santa Claus sparked widespread backlash and debates on social media. The video portrayed Santa Claus carrying a bomb with a NATO emblem on his sleigh, being struck by a Russian missile while flying over Red Square. However, this video was criticized for its timing in the context of the AZAL plane crash and the accusations against Russia. Although actor Dmitry Melnikov stated that the video was filmed before the crash, it is evident that such content serves as a tool for disinformation and distraction during tragic events. This example highlights the complex dimension of manipulating public opinion through media.[5]
On December 27, 2024, Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev announced that Russia had fulfilled the first demand on the list of Azerbaijan’s requests—an apology. However, other demands, such as acknowledging guilt, punishing those responsible, and providing compensation, remain unanswered. Aliyev emphasized the need for a thorough international investigation into the incident and called for the establishment of an independent commission composed of international experts. This stance demonstrates that Azerbaijan prioritizes not only its national interests but also international air safety. The tension in Azerbaijan’s relations with Russia holds significance not only for the future of economic and cultural ties between the two countries but also for geopolitical balances in the region.
Azerbaijan’s determined stance on uncovering the truth behind the incident has garnered significant international support and facilitated transparency in the process. On December 24, 2024, Azerbaijani Ambassador to Russia Rahman Mustafayev stated that Moscow-Baku relations were at a historical crossroads, underscoring how the Aktau Plane Crash has impacted these balances. The developments following this incident mark a critical period for international air transportation safety and the future of diplomatic relations between the two countries.[6]
Relations between Russia and Azerbaijan are undergoing a severe test due to the diplomatic tensions following the plane crash near Aktau. Azerbaijan has held Russia publicly accountable, demanding an apology, compensation, and an acknowledgment of guilt. These demands have brought issues of international aviation safety and diplomatic responsibilities to the forefront. Moscow must exercise careful diplomacy to avoid pushing Azerbaijan closer to the West. While steps such as Russia’s apology indicate efforts to manage the tensions, its resistance to demands for compensation and admission of guilt suggests that the conflict will persist at a low intensity. Additionally, the possibility of Azerbaijan deepening its relations with the West poses a threat to Moscow’s influence over regional balances.
It is likely that Russia will attempt to strengthen its relationship with Azerbaijan by increasing economic cooperation during this period. Strategic projects in the energy sector, in particular, will play a crucial role in maintaining Moscow’s ties with Baku. However, symbolic elements like the satirical video in Russia depicting Santa Claus being shot down by air defense systems have created the perception that Moscow is not taking the crisis seriously. Azerbaijan may interpret such content as an effort to downplay the seriousness of the crash, using it to gather greater influence on the international stage. This situation could negatively affect Moscow’s international image and compel Russia to adopt a more cautious strategy.
In the long term, a permanent rupture in relations between Azerbaijan and Russia is not anticipated, but the effects of the tension will continue to be felt on both economic and diplomatic levels. Measures such as Azerbaijan’s restriction of temporary stay durations for Russian citizens and the suspension of certain flights can be seen as tangible manifestations of its reaction. However, such actions are expected to exert short-term pressure on Moscow, while the deep-rooted ties between the two countries are believed to have the capacity to overcome such crises in the long run. Both sides are likely to seek a rational basis for compromise, considering their interests in regional stability and economic cooperation, and will likely contain the tension to the level of a limited diplomatic confrontation. In this context, relations between Russia and Azerbaijan are at a critical juncture in terms of regional balances and international power dynamics.
[1] “Preliminary Investigation Confirms Russian Missile Caused Azerbaijan Airlines Crash”, Euronews, https://www.euronews.com/2024/12/26/exclusive-preliminary-investigation-confirms-russian-missile-over-grozny-caused-aktau-cras, (Access Date: 30.12.2024).
[2] “Prezident Ilkham Aliyev dal İntervyu Azerbaydzhanskomu Televideniyu”, Azertac, https://azertag.az/ru/xeber/prezident_ilham_aliev_dal_intervyu_azerbaidzhanskomu_televideniyu_budet_obnovleno-3355735, (Access Date: 30.12.2024).
[3] “Russian MFA denies reports of talks with Baku, Astana on plane crash near Aktau”, TASS, https://tass.com/politics/1894509, (Access Date: 30.12.2024).
[4] “Azerbaijan Airlines suspends flights from Baku to Grozny, Makhachkala”, TASS, https://tass.com/economy/1893361, (Access Date: 30.12.2024).
[5] “Rossiyan Pozdravili s Novym Godom Video so Vzorvannym nad Krasnoy Ploshchadyu Santoy”, Holod, https://holod.media/2024/12/27/santa-klaus, (Access Date: 30.12.2024).
[6] “Azerbaijan-Russia relations reach new level — ambassador to Russia”, TASS, https://tass.com/politics/1892421, (Access Date: 30.12.2024).
