Indonesian President Prabowo Subianto, after securing victory in the February 2024 presidential elections, conducted his first international visit to China one month later. Similarly, following his inauguration ceremony on October 20, 2024, he chose China as the destination for his first official overseas trip, undertaking a visit from November 8 to 10, 2024.[1] Subianto’s decision to prioritize China for his first international visit after assuming the presidency clearly underscores Indonesia’s commitment to deepening relations with China and strengthening economic, diplomatic, and strategic cooperation. Advocating for collaboration rather than conflict with China, Subianto engaged with the country’s top leaders during his visit, including President Xi Jinping, Premier Li Qiang, and Chairman of the National People’s Congress Zhao Leji.
As part of the visit, the parties signed a series of agreements related to an economic cooperation package worth approximately 10 billion dollars, encompassing strategic sectors such as infrastructure, green energy, digital technology, and agriculture.[2] These agreements are considered as a critical step in deepening economic relations between the two countries and contributing to sustainable development goals. During the visit, Indonesian President Subianto emphasized Indonesia’s interest in drawing upon China’s experiences in achieving rapid economic growth and significant poverty alleviation over the past three decades.[3] In this context, discussions with Premier Li Qiang highlighted the potential of China’s experiences in contributing to Indonesia’s developmental objectives.
Another prominent aspect of the visit was the signing of a memorandum of understanding (MOU) aimed at promoting joint development around the Natuna Islands, one of the contested areas in the South China Sea. The timing of this agreement, coinciding with an ongoing naval exercise between Indonesia and the United States near Batam Island, clearly reflects Indonesia’s balancing policy. The agreement covers cooperation in areas such as fisheries, oil exploration, and natural gas research within the overlapping zones of China’s “nine-dash line” claim and Indonesia’s Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ).
According to the statement, “Both parties have reached a significant consensus on joint development in areas with overlapping claims and, within this framework, have agreed to establish an Intergovernmental Joint Steering Committee to assess and advance relevant cooperation opportunities.”[4] However, this statement has been criticized on the grounds that it contradicts Indonesia’s official position, which asserts that, as a non-claimant state in the South China Sea, Indonesia has no overlapping jurisdiction with China. In response to the ensuing ambiguities, the Indonesian Ministry of Foreign Affairs issued a statement on November 11, 2024, clarifying that the agreement signed with China “will have no impact on Indonesia’s sovereign rights or its jurisdiction over the North Natuna Sea.”[5]
Indonesia has long demonstrated its willingness to assume responsibility for regional security. The country’s foreign policy approach is constitutionally mandated to adhere to an “independent and active” foreign policy, and successive leaders have shown a firm commitment to upholding this principle. Within this framework, Indonesia has sought to maintain a balance among major powers while striving to strengthen its independent position on the global stage. This strategy clearly reflects Indonesia’s aspiration to solidify its role as a credible and neutral regional actor.
Declaring his commitment to pursuing a non-aligned foreign policy, Subianto underscored his determination to maintain strategic balance by visiting Washington following his trip to Beijing, where he held a meeting with U.S. President Joe Biden. During these engagements, Subianto also had the opportunity to connect with Donald Trump, the newly elected President of the United States, extending his congratulations on this significant achievement.[6]
Prior to the bilateral meeting, Biden congratulated Subianto on his electoral victory in February and expressed his hopes for the two countries to work together toward advancing a vision of a “free and open Indo-Pacific with ASEAN at its center”.[7] During Subianto’s visit to the United States, the two countries issued a joint statement commemorating the 75th anniversary of their diplomatic relations. The statement emphasized their “steadfast support for the preservation of maritime and airspace freedom, the sovereign rights and jurisdiction of coastal states within their exclusive economic zones, and adherence to the 1982 United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS).” Additionally, Biden expressed the goal of deepening the “Comprehensive Strategic Partnership” agreement signed between the United States and Indonesia in 2023.[8]
During Subianto’s visit to the White House, U.S. President Biden conveyed significant messages indicating strong support for Indonesia’s accession process to the Western-centered Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD).[9] On the other hand, Trump’s rhetoric concerning plans to impose high tariffs on imported goods has been a contributing factor in boosting Indonesia’s motivation to join the BRICS bloc, comprising Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa. Notably, shortly after taking office, Subianto sent his newly appointed foreign minister to the BRICS meeting held in Kazan, Russia, to express Indonesia’s interest in joining this non-Western economic bloc. The formal declaration of intent to join BRICS marks a departure from the policies of Subianto’s predecessor, Joko Widodo, who, despite securing substantial infrastructure investments from China, maintained a largely neutral geopolitical stance.
In conclusion, Subianto’s decision to make his first official overseas visits to China and the United States underscores Indonesia’s commitment to maintaining a strategic balance in its foreign policy. The economic cooperation agreements signed with China and the memorandum targeting joint development around the Natuna Islands demonstrate that Indonesia views China as a key partner in its regional development strategies. Simultaneously, interactions with the United States and efforts to deepen the strategic partnership highlight Indonesia’s continued support for the vision of a “free and open Indo-Pacific.” Indonesia’s motivation to join BRICS and the concrete steps taken in this direction emphasize the country’s interest in non-Western economic partnerships, marking a clear departure from the more neutral policies of Subianto’s predecessor, Joko Widodo. Subianto’s approach to foreign policy reflects a more proactive and direct stance compared to Widodo. This strategy underscores Indonesia’s ambition to play a more active role in the competitive environment among major powers, highlighting a pragmatic foreign policy that balances economic development, diplomatic relations, and geopolitical equilibrium.
[1] “Prabowo’s China trip to boost regional stability”, China Daily, https://www.chinadaily.com.cn/a/202411/13/WS673403caa310f1265a1cd0d8.html, (Date of Access: 15.11.2024).
[2] “China, Indonesia seal $10 bn in deals focused on green energy and tech”, The Economic Times, https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/international/world-news/china-indonesia-seal-10-bn-in-deals-focused-on-green-energy-and-tech/articleshow/115149922.cms?from=mdr, (Date of Access: 15.11.2024).
[3] “Indonesia keen to learn from China about erasing poverty: Prabowo”, Antara News, https://en.antaranews.com/news/333509/indonesia-keen-to-learn-from-china-about-erasing-poverty-prabowo, (Date of Access: 15.11.2024).
[4] “What does Indonesia President Prabowo’s maiden visit to China and US tell us about his approach to diplomacy, Channel News Asia, https://www.channelnewsasia.com/asia/indonesia-prabowo-first-foreign-overseas-trip-china-us-4749971, (Date of Access: 16.11.2024).
[5] Ibid.
[6] “Indonesian president meets Biden and speaks with Trump, pledges cooperation”, Reuters, https://www.reuters.com/world/indonesian-president-starts-us-visit-with-call-trump-ahead-biden-meeting-2024-11-12/, (Date of Access: 16.11.2024).
[7] “Indonesia’s Prabowo Meets With President Biden on US Trip”, The Diplomat, https://thediplomat.com/2024/11/indonesias-prabowo-meets-with-president-biden-on-us-trip/, (Date of Access: 15.11.2024).
[8] “At White House, Indonesia’s new leader straddles US-China rivalry”, VOA News, https://www.voanews.com/a/at-white-house-indonesia-s-new-leader-straddles-us-china-rivalry/7862008.html, (Date of Access: 15.11.2024).
[9] “Indonesia president’s diplomatic dash takes in China and US – but a Trump presidency may see the aspiring regional powerhouse tilt more toward Beijing”, The Conversation, https://theconversation.com/indonesia-presidents-diplomatic-dash-takes-in-china-and-us-but-a-trump-presidency-may-see-the-aspiring-regional-powerhouse-tilt-more-toward-beijing-243299, (Date of Access: 16.11.2024).
